Writer's Guild Going on Strike

mico said:
Happy labor day especially to the misinformed and downright ignorant.
Click to expand...

No need to be rude! We'll never win hearts and minds that way

But yes, happy labor day. There's an episode of star trek deep space nine where the ferengi who staff Quark's bar unionize and go on strike. Chief O'Brien tells the story of his coal miner ancestor who was murdered for leading a strike.

F08nxIrXsAEAfjw.jpg
The coal wars of the 1920s were crazy
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bat... were hired to,of Jeffery, Sharples and Blair.
 
Bassman2003 said:
I am not sold on blanket consumer demand. I agree, there is a voracious appetite for media, but I do not think that necessarily translates to demand. People around the world have shown they will do anything to get around paying for things like media. Remember the Napster feeding frenzy with MP3 files? Human nature at its finest. What followed was a demise of the music industry as we knew it. I see the same for visual entertainment. It is quite commoditized at this point, so demand only goes to a point of very slight discomfort, then another avenue is sought. What might look like a great market opportunity in my eyes continues as a race to the bottom of an ever fragmented space. Not saying anything is falling off of a cliff tomorrow, I just think profit margins are going to be tight for the foreseeable future.
Click to expand...

Piracy is always an issue but what I mean is that cultural tastes could shift and people could stop watching movies altogether. They could stop watching sports. They could stop buying professional wedding videos. Etc. That would really be the end.

I'm sure they take piracy into account when calculating subscription prices in order to maximize profit. But there is some demand that won't balk and steal, especially over a small increase. I used to pirate stuff when I was a kid but I can't imagine doing that now. Any way, we currently pay a fair bit less per month than we could stomach. I'd be happy to spend $50/month on streaming/rentals no problem. Currently, we get HBO Max for free with our internet service. I don't count Amazon because we get it for shopping. We get Hulu for $2/month with a black friday deal. Paramount+ for $5/month with an annual subscription on a black friday discount. And then $11/month for Netflix which I'm about to cancel and switch to Disney+ for a time. Then we rent probably about $10/month of movies. So, we could be paying twice what we currently are and I would still consider it a bargain.
 
Strange you would bring up coal wars. Nevertheless I have keen interest in the Colorado Coal Wars 1913-1927, same period as the Blair Mountain. There was violence from both sides, Rockefeller owned Colorado Fuel and Iron and striking miners. The miners were paid only for the ore they recovered, not the work of shoring the roof, drilling or blasting. They lived in company towns with a school, medical care and boarding house, paid in script to be spent for rent and in the company stores. The housing was company owned. The standard of living could be considered high. The company offered prizes and awards for beautification efforts, lawns, gardens, streets but if you ran afoul of the rules you could be tossed out. The nearby towns would accept the company script for payment as well. These coal mines were a very dangerous workplace, deep mined 500 ft below the surface, blast mined with dynamite, the ore hauled away with underground horse drawn carts. Injuries included electrocution, drownings, impacts, crush injuries from rail carts, suffocations. Coal fueled steam powered electric generators that supplied the city lights as well as the haul cables and elevators for the vertical shafts, pumps and ventilation. Water had to be pumped from the tunnels and was boiled to make steam. In March 1914, striking miners succeeded in taking over the town of Chandler, killed a guard and a non-striking miner. At the request of the company, the Colorado Militia was sent with several hundred armed soldiers and 3 machine guns ostensibly to be neutral force but in actuality were on the side of the company. They sprayed machine gun fire upon the strikers hiding out in the surrounding hills whom were sniping back. The sheriff brokered a cease fire. The coal wars were spread across the state, in the Ludlow massacre several hundred striking miners and their families were attacked in their tents offsite by hired agents of the company.
 
Bassman2003 said:
I am not sold on blanket consumer demand. I agree, there is a voracious appetite for media, but I do not think that necessarily translates to demand. People around the world have shown they will do anything to get around paying for things like media.
Click to expand...

I wanted to research this question concerning the overall health of the media marketplace. So, I looked at annual revenue records and projections for broadcast, cable, svod, and box office. But to save time, I'm just going to post 1 chart that I think tells the whole story:

Click image for larger version Name: fast-other-tv-ad-spend-projection-chart-123_NpTO8FN.jpg Views: 0 Size: 55.1 KB ID: 5705923 the chart shows projected US ad spend for broadcast, cable, svod, and fast (free ad-supported TV online). The figures are listed as millions but are actually billions. So, $100B aggregate ad spend by 2027. But otherwise the data here is similar to what I saw reported elsewhere.

This is different from subscriber revenue but it basically tells the same story. The motion picture entertainment industry is growing as a whole even as some segments shrink drastically.

US box office peaked at about $12B, so it's a small figure compared to TV ad and subscription revenues. This year it's expected to hit about $10B.

So, the consumer demand is present and rising and the possibility to convert that demand into revenue is assured. FASTs are expected to be a big winner and that sort of seems like the broadcast equivalent of internet TV. They're also resilient against piracy because broke kids don't have to pay to use them.

I'd also like to add that WGA and SAG demands for residuals are not necessarily going to worsen their revenue problems because Netflix et al is spending so much up front to finance productions when they don't pay out residuals. There was that Nancy Meyers rom com for Netflix that died due to a ballooning budget. They probably could have gotten it made with lower upfront costs and a bigger back end for above the line talent. "Meyers was asking for at least $150 million and Netflix drawing the line at $130 million. Even the latter figure would have put it among the most expensive rom-coms ever made." https://ew.com/movies/nancy-meyers-n...udded%20affair.

Edit: looking specifically at subscriptions ("access revenue"), it looks like cable + svod is estimated to total about $135B/y every year from now to 2025 with almost exactly the same $ decline in cable as $ increase in svod. https://www.mediaplaynews.com/study...report estimates that 2022,%) and 13% in 2025.
 
Last edited:
ahalpert said:
No need to be rude! We'll never win hearts and minds that way

But yes, happy labor day. There's an episode of star trek deep space nine where the ferengi who staff Quark's bar unionize and go on strike. Chief O'Brien tells the story of his coal miner ancestor who was murdered for leading a strike.


The coal wars of the 1920s were crazy
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bat... were hired to,of Jeffery, Sharples and Blair.
Click to expand...

Those hearts and minds are forever locked , you're never gonna make them understand because it's part of their core belief system. And no one wants to admit they were were wrong after a lifetime of believing in a mistake. They don't even realize that they indirectly benefited from unions.

Anyway if yore interested in coal wars: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matewan
 
Interesting charts Abe. I do not think ad spend = demand. It might be correlated but if demand falls the ad spend will dry up quickly. Looking at your inventory of streaming services and the very low dollar amounts you are currently paying kind of proves some points. The streaming world has a revenue vs cost issue and while you show demand for the products, if the price increases you probably will just step out of a few of the services. I think of it like 'convenient demand'. We all want it unless it is out of our window of opportunity etc... My view is that the streaming companies' true window of sustainability does not match up with the consumers' window.
 
The best thing about the early days of Netflix was the enormous catalog of older films on DVD and then Blu-Ray. I'd gladly pay a premium to have all those titles available for on-demand streaming with no commercials. I don't really care if all the streamers never produce another new title because there is so much great stuff already in the can. I have zero interest in at least 80% of the content streamers are producing today, and of the other 20% that I'm willing to at least give a try, I don't make it past the first 30 minutes of most of it. I watch TCM more than all the streamers combined. My DVRs are chock full with a pretty good catalog from TCM.
 
I spend even less, Netflix, Prime. 80-90% of the channels in the Cable/SAT packages are free between OTA and Roku. What I miss are ESPN, Peacock. If they would make those available a la carte I might, otherwise their loss, the sports bar awaits.
 
mico said:
Happy labor day especially to the misinformed and downright ignorant. Thank the unions. Your long weekend has been brought to you by the American labor movement. They’re also the ones who fought for the 40-hour workweek, overtime pay, employee benefits, safe working conditions, and child labor laws.
Click to expand...


You got the day off???!
 
So what do those in the union do during strikes? Do they just chill at home not working (maybe go to a few protests) or are they actively seeking employment elsewhere (non-union jobs or work outside of the industry)?

Charles, what are you doing with your time during the strike?
 
Eric Coughlin said:
So what do those in the union do during strikes?
Click to expand...

Seems like it ought to be a great opportunity for a writer to focus on a screenplay, novel, non-fiction book, play, adaptation, etc. with out distractions. The best writing is done by an individual on their own time clock, not a pool of writers locked in a room together. If I was a union DP, I'd be out shooting stock. It won't pay off right away, but planting seeds for later harvesting.
 
Eric Coughlin said:
So what do those in the union do during strikes? Do they just chill at home not working (maybe go to a few protests) or are they actively seeking employment elsewhere (non-union jobs or work outside of the industry)?

Charles, what are you doing with your time during the strike?
Click to expand...

A lot of people I know have been treating this is an "enforced vacation", spending time with families or traveling etc. I have one friend who has poured his energies into creating a great resource about camera operating that may interest people here: https://www.theop.io. I've helped him a bit with the technical stuff.

Me, I'm just trying to keep creative and occupied. Directed a short last month and working on the edit for that, and have a few more things in queue to edit subsequently. Never done with those projects!

As far as other forms of income but that is a much larger discussion...all I can say for now is that change is brewing. This slowdown didn't start with the strikes for me, so it is a big picture question. I have spent my career socking away cash under the mattress for a "rainy day"--that day came at last, so I'm largely living off that plus a few rentals here and there. Incredibly fortunate timing is that I paid off my mortgage last year, and I've curtailed my equipment spending since I don't have income to require deductions against, so my expenditures have gone way down. I do however know a number of people who are in trouble, making their rent is becoming a serious concern. AD's are driving Ubers, people are picking up sidework where they can. It is without a doubt a rough period from a mental health standpoint for this large group of workers.
 
Last edited:
Curious if you don’t mind saying, does the ZeeGee end up giving you much profit? $6k-$8k per purchase, I would imagine split between retailer, materials, manufacturer, and inventor. So if you’re getting as a guess $500 to $1000 per sale, 500-1000 sales would be a decent chunk of change. But perhaps it’s less sales and less commission than that.

I’ve considered getting one but haven’t had a pressing or specific need for one yet.
 
Eric Coughlin said:
Curious if you don’t mind saying, does the ZeeGee end up giving you much profit? $6k-$8k per purchase, I would imagine split between retailer, materials, manufacturer, and inventor. So if you’re getting as a guess $500 to $1000 per sale, 500-1000 sales would be a decent chunk of change. But perhaps it’s less sales and less commission than that.

I’ve considered getting one but haven’t had a pressing or specific need for one yet.
Click to expand...

Can't really discuss all that, but let's just say that after my initial investment I have seen a humble amount of return. Far less than a season of shooting a TV show.
 
Does a camera op on a legit TV show get to decide which camera support gear like the ZeeGee is used, or is that the DP's call? Or someone else?

I remember when you first shared the ZeeGee, I, quite frankly, thought to myself I don't know who in the world would buy this at this point time in modern production.

I mean, I had no doubt you were behind a remarkable product and I wanted you to make millions, but saw this as a pretty tough sale. More like a, "I'm a good friend of Charles so I'll buy it" sale.

[Keep in mind I know nothing about what people on that level would be interested in.]
 
Tom Roper said:
Strange you would bring up coal wars.
Click to expand...

I actually didn't know about them before (or had forgotten). But I went to look up this famous meme from an unabashedly pro-labor episode of Deep Space Nine. Someone commented on the page where I found it that the first use of US combat planes in action was against striking coal miners in 1921. I tried to find out if that was true, which led me to the wikipedia page about the Battle of Blair Mountain. I didn't get a final answer, although it said on that page that US Army bombers flew surveillance missions against the strikers. Private planes were hired to drop bombs on them.
 
mico said:
Those hearts and minds are forever locked , you're never gonna make them understand because it's part of their core belief system. And no one wants to admit they were were wrong after a lifetime of believing in a mistake. They don't even realize that they indirectly benefited from unions.

Anyway if yore interested in coal wars: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matewan
Click to expand...

Nevertheless, there's no need to throw insults. I agree that unions have benefited these folks in ways they don't even realize and also that they may unfortunately have more solidarity with management than with labor. But they have some legitimate grievances that are worth addressing. And anyway, there are other hearts and minds to win. There are probably people reading but not replying who are undecided and convincible.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top