But 1080p isn't even established yet, and 1080i and 720p haven't made THAT deep of inroads. I think it's a longer hike than that.
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I think the disc wars are moot in the long run, we're rapidly moving to internet distribution, and in a few years discs will seem a quaint anachronism, like VHS tape. With distributed media delivery scemes like Bittorrent and the technology behind Joost, we'll soon see a variety of methods of asynchronous (non-real time) media delivery to the home, replacing the Netflix/DVD/post office model with a TBD/Digital/Internet model, the TBD is the player(s) to be determined in this transition. Just like Digital Cassette was too little too late, so is HD-DVD and Blu-Ray. Now i'm being provocative here, I can make both sides of this argument, discs are a very reliable method of media delivery for independents, as we're years off before the TBD/Digital/Internet model takes hold. These sure are interesting times, after an almost 100 year reign of FILM as the distribution medium, the move to protean bits has opened up a flowering of media delivery innovations!
but in the meantime, we'll have increased use of things like Joost (have you seen Joost? The quality is good enough for lots of things) and asynchronous media downloads (that occur in the background while you do other things). Right now Netflix takes a day or two, and the average Joe has embraced Netflix, so digital delivery in 12 or 14 hours is FASTER than Netflix, it's both a perception and interface challenge. Right now people who watch video podcasts on their Apple TV, Mac, Video iPod, or iPhone are getting much of their video via asynchronous (in the background) delivery, it's gradually happening. HD is not the be all and end all, great content is king, and resolution has little to do with media adoption. People flocked to DVDs not only for the improved picture quality, but for the convenience over VHS. Looking back on the VHS vs. Betamax war, consumers voted they would rather have a 2 hour tape capacity than better image quality. No doubt home cinema lovers (like myself) look forward to HD delivery, but in the meantime, I don't mind convenience and choice.[...] an average DSL connection here tops out around 3Mbps, way too slow for delivering HD content.
In Japan you can get a 100Mbps connection, an average DSL connection here tops out around 3Mbps, way too slow for delivering HD content.
The Swedes have that crazy new service - something like 100GBps. That's fast enough to watch Speed II : Cruise Control in like, forty-three full res HD windows. Now, we just need a monitor that supports 172K.
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Depends on where you are. In Palm Bay, Road Runner (Time Warner's cable offering) isn't any faster than a good 56k dial up. I had those people out on many occasions, and they replaced the modem, checked the line, replaced a line filter... then Bell South offerd me DSL and I replaced Road RunnerDSL is slow. Cable is faster. I get 5 Mbps.
It’s easy to get carried away arguing the value of one side versus the other and miss the forest from the trees: HD sales currently amount to barely 1% of DVD sales.