Price drop on HVX and all cameras once RED is released?
- Thread starter rgdfilms
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Jan_Crittenden
Veteran
Haakon said:
But we were talking about High Def Cameras. The point I was making is that it is not that simple to make an under $10,000 camera that is 2/3".
Best,
jan
I'm glad you have this attitude. I don't see that it is being reflected in the products Panasonic is offering right now, but at least the mindset is there. As I said in my earlier post, it isn't even so much about the price as it is the features. Someone mentioned "doling out the resolution crumbs as slowly as possible," which you quickly refuted, but I must say - even your top of the line camera, the Varicam, maxes out at 720p. In a world that's about to be offered a 4K option, I'd say a 720p camera is going to have a hard time justifying its dominance.Jan Crittenden said:
Yes, you do have some 1080 cameras - and I do think that's sufficient resolution for most people right now. The problem is that they're all crippled in one way or another. You don't have a single 1080 camera on the market that can do variable framerates with the lone exception of the HVX (and that has a 1/3" chip!). P2 is fantastic and I haven't stopped raving about it since I bought the HVX, but that's not available in any HD camera besides the HVX either. If I need more camera than my HVX, where do I look? I have to give something up if I want to step up to a "better" model, and that shouldn't be the case.
You say that your goal is to put together products that have the "right features," but I'm having a difficult time finding them. At the very least, your top of the line camera should incorporate the features available in the "lower" cameras under it. These include solid state recording, high resolution, and variable framerates. So where is the 2/3", VFR, 1080 P2 camera from Panasonic?
I'm sure something like that is undoubtedly in the works (people have been asking for a "Varicam II" for ages), but instead of that, we got the HDX900 this year instead. After we'd gotten used to the VFR and P2 capability of the HVX, losing those things by moving to the HDX doesn't make a lot of sense. And I know the HDX was aimed more at ENG people than narrative filmmakers (hence the decision to be tape-based), but that doesn't excuse the fact that a solid state product is not offered as an alternative. I will say that Sony hasn't been doing any better by offering 1/2" chips and quite low-bitrate codecs in their new XDCAM HDs, and as a result that doesn't put much pressure on Panasonic to step up the game any. I think (hope) that Red will play a part in working to remedy the relative stale progression of these products.
I don't know anything about your profits or your manufacturing costs, your R&D or how much you spend on support - all I can do is look at the numbers that are presented before me. If I can see that a $6,500 camera can shoot 24p, variable framerates, and use P2, then I expect every model above it to do at least those things, and not charge a ridiculous amount to include them when varying models are available to select from. Given that Red has higher resolution, more framerates, and more options for recording than anything in Panasonic's current lineup - and it can do all of that for $17,500 - I'm sure you can see why many people are left scratching their heads.
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epplegacks
Active member
Haakon said:
Red doesn't have anything right now. They have prototypes. And catch me if I'm wrong but you seem to be saying that with the release of the HVX you expected all the existing Varicams to magically incorporate all those features and more. Sorry to sound sarcastic, but the Varicam is still selling units because there are certain things it does that are required by a large enough segment of the industry to justify it's existence. The Varicam recording to tape is a big one. Tape is robust and durable, and I feel much more comfortable shipping tape via Fedex than hard drives. This is fact. With Red we have magazines and RedRaid and all this other prototype stuff. Is it interesting and exciting in it's possibilities? Definitely. Is it proven for consistent work under a variety of conditions and production workflows? Hardly. There will be an updated higher end camera like the Varicam at some point, rest assured on that.
Barry summed everything up perfectly (to the point where I should just shut up cause I'm probably doing no favours) in the comparison of Apple introducing FCP into an Avid and Media 100 dominated marketplace. He mentions Vegas which is a fantastic app, if I ever had to switch back to windoze I'd certainly use that. But did Vegas for Final Cut entirely redraw the map? Nope. Did they influence the market heavily? Undeniably. But the fact is Final Cut is in it's fifth version and it's still hasn't dominated the market, and Avid is still doing quite well and were doing quite well even during FCP's launch and rise in popularity. Upstart FCP did change things, but over a period of years and not as much as (depending on who you talk to) it should have. I believe Jannard and his teams will do something similar to this, and for my two cents pull it off (unless there's a drastic lowering of quality I'm never buying anything but Oakleys for eyewear ever again).
Long story short, this whole thread started with whether the Red release would prompt a price drop from Sony or Panasonic. If Red delivers it will certainly affect the marketplace, but "Price Drop" has the connotation of sudden change in price due to the sudden change in the market. First off when Red is released Panny and Sony will take a look at their quarterly figures and see if there's a noticable dent. 3 months. They will also be releasing new products around that time and will have to analyze how those products compare in reviews, customer feedback, and units sold. 6 months. NLE's will have to update themselves to adopt a new codec and workflow. 9 months to a year. If in this time Red shows itself to be a formidable offering and customers are reflecting that in their spending habits then Sony and Panasonic will draw up their R&D plans to either create a specific product or adapt their entire product lines to deal with the new competition. Another year. They then have to release whatever their revised products are and see how customers respond to it. Another year. Jan and Barry check me if I'm wrong but I think these aren't generous estimates on the timing.
So several years down the road we'll see how Red has affected the market. The smallest window for a price drop would be six months after a couple of quarters of data can be analyzed and the decision made yay or nay that prices will have to be reduced to compete. There's also other factors that Red won't be out for another 6 to 9 months and with that 6 months on top of that maybe manufacturing cost reduction will prompt a price drop of their own accord? Who knows, Red is not the only factor in the industry just like Apple wasn't the only factor in NLEs.
Ok I'm done now sorry.
I actually agree with most of your points. I've already remarked that if Red does affect the price of competing cameras at all, we won't see it until well into 2007 and it will only affect cameras which are more expensive than it is - not cheaper, like the HVX.
I didn't expect "all existing Varicams to magically incorporate all of the HVX's features and more" upon the HVX's arrival. First of all, there's only one Varicam... but the point was that the only camera they've released since the HVX is the HDX, and it skimps out on features that the HVX offers (most notably the variable frame rates). If I can get VFR for $6,500, then I certainly expect they'd be included in the purchase of a $26,500 camera. I apologize if that seems unreasonable to you.
This whole "Red doesn't have anything right now" argument is a little stale. People were calling the HVX "vaporware" months before it finally came out as well. Fortunately, Red has been kind enough to share their progress with us as they go along so we know more or less what to expect by the time the final camera is released. If you prefer to wait until footage is displayed before drawing any conclusions, that's fine. That happens in less than a month. If you prefer to wait until they actually start shipping the camera, that's fine too. That could be in six months or less, and in my opinion, that isn't a very long time to wait - especially considering that the company and the technology are both brand new. It's obvious they're working day and night to get this thing right (and get it out as soon as possible), and I believe the results will be indicative of that. Saying "there will be an updated higher end camera like the Varicam at some point, rest assured on that," holds just as little validity (or less) than your statement about Red considering no such product has even been announced yet. Believe me, I would love to see a Varicam II with all of these features show up on Panasonic's roadmap sometime soon. Goodness knows we've been asking for it.
As far as the original Varicam is concerned, if there are people out there who find that $65,000 for a 720p camera that shoots to tape is a value after Red comes out, then they're in luck - Panasonic has a camera for them. Isn't it nice to have choices?
I didn't expect "all existing Varicams to magically incorporate all of the HVX's features and more" upon the HVX's arrival. First of all, there's only one Varicam... but the point was that the only camera they've released since the HVX is the HDX, and it skimps out on features that the HVX offers (most notably the variable frame rates). If I can get VFR for $6,500, then I certainly expect they'd be included in the purchase of a $26,500 camera. I apologize if that seems unreasonable to you.
This whole "Red doesn't have anything right now" argument is a little stale. People were calling the HVX "vaporware" months before it finally came out as well. Fortunately, Red has been kind enough to share their progress with us as they go along so we know more or less what to expect by the time the final camera is released. If you prefer to wait until footage is displayed before drawing any conclusions, that's fine. That happens in less than a month. If you prefer to wait until they actually start shipping the camera, that's fine too. That could be in six months or less, and in my opinion, that isn't a very long time to wait - especially considering that the company and the technology are both brand new. It's obvious they're working day and night to get this thing right (and get it out as soon as possible), and I believe the results will be indicative of that. Saying "there will be an updated higher end camera like the Varicam at some point, rest assured on that," holds just as little validity (or less) than your statement about Red considering no such product has even been announced yet. Believe me, I would love to see a Varicam II with all of these features show up on Panasonic's roadmap sometime soon. Goodness knows we've been asking for it.
As far as the original Varicam is concerned, if there are people out there who find that $65,000 for a 720p camera that shoots to tape is a value after Red comes out, then they're in luck - Panasonic has a camera for them. Isn't it nice to have choices?
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GaryinCalifornia
Veteran
I think its going to be at least a year or more for Red to really change the market... they have to have the camera ready... get the workflow down... and then have some nice projects shot with it...
If production companies can see the savings with a lower priced camera then it'll change the market... or who knows it might be up to the rental houses...
Who knows maybe they won't pass the savings on... they might say well it shoots better than the big boys so the price should be equal or greater to a Cine Alta or Varicam...
Who knows maybe they'll make the Red Light... right now all I want is a 1080 24p... 1 - 120 frame rates... a good Red Zoom (hopefully on the drawing board)...
If production companies can see the savings with a lower priced camera then it'll change the market... or who knows it might be up to the rental houses...
Who knows maybe they won't pass the savings on... they might say well it shoots better than the big boys so the price should be equal or greater to a Cine Alta or Varicam...
Who knows maybe they'll make the Red Light... right now all I want is a 1080 24p... 1 - 120 frame rates... a good Red Zoom (hopefully on the drawing board)...
RED for origination is sexy, but recall the (still not yet completed) transition from NTSC Standard to ATSC Standards and the myriad miseries thereforetowithin.
35mm has resolved relatively at 2k (or more) for generations but it took decades to adopt 1080 / 720 standards from the lamentable 525i standard.
The reality is that in the USA the government is having to adopt subsidy programs to transition the greater population into digital (SD / IDTV / DTV) broadcast standards.
If the acquisition technologies for HD have ostensibly been around since the advent of modern celluloid, but only adopted (at half-resolution) in recent years, what incentive do the major manufacturers (e.g., Sony, Phillips, JVC, Panasonic) have to force the already reluctant associated industries into yet higher standards?
Another angle.
e
35mm has resolved relatively at 2k (or more) for generations but it took decades to adopt 1080 / 720 standards from the lamentable 525i standard.
The reality is that in the USA the government is having to adopt subsidy programs to transition the greater population into digital (SD / IDTV / DTV) broadcast standards.
If the acquisition technologies for HD have ostensibly been around since the advent of modern celluloid, but only adopted (at half-resolution) in recent years, what incentive do the major manufacturers (e.g., Sony, Phillips, JVC, Panasonic) have to force the already reluctant associated industries into yet higher standards?
Another angle.
e
Jan,
Sincere thanks for your thoughtful reply. It clarified much.
Zig's statement that "Sony and Panasonic have been doling out the resolution crumbs" didn't strike me as a particularly noxious one, but then I didn't see any accusation of dishonesty within it. I see that you interpreted Zig's comment differently. Fair enough.
I think there's a continuum between flat-out collusion and price-fixing on one end and total transparency on the other. I don't think Panasonic or Sony are at either extreme end of that spectrum. I doubt very much that there's any overt collusion to fix prices (Zig didn't say this, but someone did use those words earlier) -- I would characterize that idea as outrageous. But equally absurd would be the notion that there is total transparency -- we don't know what the actual manufacturing and R&D costs are for each product. Thus, by necessity, we can only speculate.
And now I'm going to.
Perhaps:
--The actual manufacturing cost of the HVX is $4,000 and Panasonic wholesales it for $4,500 -- a profit equal to only 12.5% of the cost (from which Panasonic must recoup overhead, R&D and marketing costs). This small margin is realistic because of the volume of cameras Panasonic is able to sell at such a low retail price. The manufacturing cost is so low because mass production scales the cost of parts and labor down dramatically.
--The actual manufacturing cost of the Varicam is $20,000 and Panasonic wholesales it for $40,000 -- a profit equal to 100% of the cost. This large margin is actually the lowest realistic profit because of the limited number of cameras that Panasonic believes it can sell to this much smaller class of buyers. The manufacturing cost is so high because the small number of units produced means the parts and labor costs don't scale down the way they do with the HVX.
--Sales of the above two product lines produce equal revenue for Panasonic. This revenue pays for the R&D for the similar technology Panasonic uses in both cameras.
--Panasonic could actually put 2/3" chips in the HVX and increase manufacturing costs by only $1,000 per unit. However, if Panasonic did that and wholesaled that 2/3" camera for only $1,000 more than the current HVX, this would harm the Varicam market so drastically that it wouldn't even make sense to manufacture the Varicam at all. The net result would be that revenues are cut in half -- a disaster that doesn't provide nearly enough funds for R&D.
If my numbers above are correct, that would of course be an incredible coincidence -- I have no inside knowledge whatsoever. But if the above scenario is somewhat accurate in its broad strokes, I think two things are true at the same time:
1. Panasonic is doing nothing dishonest whatsoever with its pricing strategies. In fact, it's doing what it must in order to be a player at all in this business.
2. Panasonic is "doling out the resolution crumbs." That might not be the most elegant way to put it, but a natural part of recouping R&D from a stratified market is withholding features from one model to maintain the commercial viability of another.
Acknowledging this reality is not at all a slam at you or Panasonic. But talking about Red's potential effect on the market does require that we acknowledge this reality -- because Red seems to be directly challenging it.
Sincere thanks for your thoughtful reply. It clarified much.
Zig's statement that "Sony and Panasonic have been doling out the resolution crumbs" didn't strike me as a particularly noxious one, but then I didn't see any accusation of dishonesty within it. I see that you interpreted Zig's comment differently. Fair enough.
I think there's a continuum between flat-out collusion and price-fixing on one end and total transparency on the other. I don't think Panasonic or Sony are at either extreme end of that spectrum. I doubt very much that there's any overt collusion to fix prices (Zig didn't say this, but someone did use those words earlier) -- I would characterize that idea as outrageous. But equally absurd would be the notion that there is total transparency -- we don't know what the actual manufacturing and R&D costs are for each product. Thus, by necessity, we can only speculate.
And now I'm going to.
Perhaps:
--The actual manufacturing cost of the HVX is $4,000 and Panasonic wholesales it for $4,500 -- a profit equal to only 12.5% of the cost (from which Panasonic must recoup overhead, R&D and marketing costs). This small margin is realistic because of the volume of cameras Panasonic is able to sell at such a low retail price. The manufacturing cost is so low because mass production scales the cost of parts and labor down dramatically.
--The actual manufacturing cost of the Varicam is $20,000 and Panasonic wholesales it for $40,000 -- a profit equal to 100% of the cost. This large margin is actually the lowest realistic profit because of the limited number of cameras that Panasonic believes it can sell to this much smaller class of buyers. The manufacturing cost is so high because the small number of units produced means the parts and labor costs don't scale down the way they do with the HVX.
--Sales of the above two product lines produce equal revenue for Panasonic. This revenue pays for the R&D for the similar technology Panasonic uses in both cameras.
--Panasonic could actually put 2/3" chips in the HVX and increase manufacturing costs by only $1,000 per unit. However, if Panasonic did that and wholesaled that 2/3" camera for only $1,000 more than the current HVX, this would harm the Varicam market so drastically that it wouldn't even make sense to manufacture the Varicam at all. The net result would be that revenues are cut in half -- a disaster that doesn't provide nearly enough funds for R&D.
If my numbers above are correct, that would of course be an incredible coincidence -- I have no inside knowledge whatsoever. But if the above scenario is somewhat accurate in its broad strokes, I think two things are true at the same time:
1. Panasonic is doing nothing dishonest whatsoever with its pricing strategies. In fact, it's doing what it must in order to be a player at all in this business.
2. Panasonic is "doling out the resolution crumbs." That might not be the most elegant way to put it, but a natural part of recouping R&D from a stratified market is withholding features from one model to maintain the commercial viability of another.
Acknowledging this reality is not at all a slam at you or Panasonic. But talking about Red's potential effect on the market does require that we acknowledge this reality -- because Red seems to be directly challenging it.
Barry_Green
Moderator
This whole discussion is so bizarre. Is anyone out there making these assertions about costs actually *in the business* themselves? How can you guys possibly tell someone who's in the business, that they don't know what they're doing or that they're doing it wrong or that something could be done better?
Sheesh.
Reminds me of Jaws, when Quint was shouting at Hooper "don't tell me my business again!"
Nobody here knows what it costs to develop and produce a product like this. And even if they did, that doesn't qualify them to determine what a fair price is or a fair return on investment, and certainly nobody here has any clue what it costs to maintain a support and service infrastructure like Panasonic and Sony maintain.
Panasonic knows what they're doing. They're not "doling out crumbs", they're producing the products that people have shown a willingness to buy, at a price point that those customers will stomach. At aggressive price points too. It was not always this way, but it's the way it is now. Look at the HDX900 -- it basically offers the same feature set as the CineAlta, for 1/4 the price. And sometimes, yes, an adjustment is made -- the SDX900 was $26,700 several months ago, today it's $16,000. I expect the VariCam will encounter a similar repricing; last I checked it had a $14,000 rebate on it. The market will take care of itself. If a product is overpriced people won't buy it. But there's so much more that goes into it than the costs of some components, it really boggles my mind that this discussion has gone on this long.
We live in a free market economy system. If someone is grossly overpricing their products, sooner or later the market will react and a correction will set in. Is Red that correction? Maybe. Or maybe it's such a different product that it's marketed to a whole different market segment, and thus doesn't need the sales/service/support network. We'll see. That would greatly cut the ongoing cost of business, and cuts like that may be possible to reflect in the pricing of the product.
Sheesh.
Reminds me of Jaws, when Quint was shouting at Hooper "don't tell me my business again!"
Nobody here knows what it costs to develop and produce a product like this. And even if they did, that doesn't qualify them to determine what a fair price is or a fair return on investment, and certainly nobody here has any clue what it costs to maintain a support and service infrastructure like Panasonic and Sony maintain.
Panasonic knows what they're doing. They're not "doling out crumbs", they're producing the products that people have shown a willingness to buy, at a price point that those customers will stomach. At aggressive price points too. It was not always this way, but it's the way it is now. Look at the HDX900 -- it basically offers the same feature set as the CineAlta, for 1/4 the price. And sometimes, yes, an adjustment is made -- the SDX900 was $26,700 several months ago, today it's $16,000. I expect the VariCam will encounter a similar repricing; last I checked it had a $14,000 rebate on it. The market will take care of itself. If a product is overpriced people won't buy it. But there's so much more that goes into it than the costs of some components, it really boggles my mind that this discussion has gone on this long.
We live in a free market economy system. If someone is grossly overpricing their products, sooner or later the market will react and a correction will set in. Is Red that correction? Maybe. Or maybe it's such a different product that it's marketed to a whole different market segment, and thus doesn't need the sales/service/support network. We'll see. That would greatly cut the ongoing cost of business, and cuts like that may be possible to reflect in the pricing of the product.
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androbot2084
Carbonite Member
When low cost HDV was first introduced three years ago the thought was that since it made all standard definition camcorders obsolete everyone needs to get on the HDV bandwagon. Well as it turned out not all broadcasters accepted HDV and most preffered professional grade standard definition camcorders with 2/3 inch chips and outstanding lowlight performance over HDV.
Now with the introduction of Red the argument goes that we now have Ultra HD that far surpasses all HD high end solutions yet while not cheap is still more affordable than the high end HD competition. So now nobody can say that Red does not meet broadcasters expectations. Broadcasters can say that Red is overkill or that they prefer the conventional HD workflow that they are already implementing. But if a broadcaster is recently making the switch to high definition they may give Red the consideration.
So if it turns out if there is a big demand for 4k digital cinema do you think that the big Japanese consortiums do not have contigency plans in place? Already Matsushita has had a working 4k camera prototype for many years while Red is still in development. And NHK broadcasting in Japan has 2 each of 4320p cameras in its arsenal complete with its own projection technology and broadcasting with fiber optic cable. The NHK camera uses a 4 CCD system of 4k chips that pixel shifts its way up to 4320p resolutions. However the camera could easily be scaled back by dropping the pixel shifting so that its maximum output would be 2160p with 4:4:4 color. If there was a big enough demand for the camera it could easily go into production as it has already been demonstrated to work but of course the bugs would have to be worked out.
Now with the introduction of Red the argument goes that we now have Ultra HD that far surpasses all HD high end solutions yet while not cheap is still more affordable than the high end HD competition. So now nobody can say that Red does not meet broadcasters expectations. Broadcasters can say that Red is overkill or that they prefer the conventional HD workflow that they are already implementing. But if a broadcaster is recently making the switch to high definition they may give Red the consideration.
So if it turns out if there is a big demand for 4k digital cinema do you think that the big Japanese consortiums do not have contigency plans in place? Already Matsushita has had a working 4k camera prototype for many years while Red is still in development. And NHK broadcasting in Japan has 2 each of 4320p cameras in its arsenal complete with its own projection technology and broadcasting with fiber optic cable. The NHK camera uses a 4 CCD system of 4k chips that pixel shifts its way up to 4320p resolutions. However the camera could easily be scaled back by dropping the pixel shifting so that its maximum output would be 2160p with 4:4:4 color. If there was a big enough demand for the camera it could easily go into production as it has already been demonstrated to work but of course the bugs would have to be worked out.
Just different opinions I guess. And that's likely to be the case on a discussion board, where people gather to discuss. I don't think Panasonic is "being dishonest" or that they "don't know what they're doing" at all. On the contrary, I think they know exactly what they're doing. And so far it's made them a good amount of money.
Does that mean that because they have a good business strategy they can't also be doling out the resolution crumbs at the same time? Why not? That's actually a part of their good business strategy! The only reason that Red is shaking things up so much is that they are showing us that they can make a camera for $17,500 that gives us 4K resolution, up to 120fps in VFR, the choice of aspect ratios at will, interchangable lens mounts... the list goes on. Say what you will, but you can't really refute that this makes the pricing of a Varicam seem outlandish in comparison. I've noticed that no one who has basically attempted to defend the "Panasonic side" of this discussion has been able to justify that (or any of the other wild pricing strategies they've been using). It's just goofy... and that doesn't make it wrong or immoral or Jan a bad person. It just means that if I'm presented camera "A" that can do everything and costs a fraction of camera "B," well, I know what choice I'm making. And I certainly defend Panasonic's right to charge whatever they want for their cameras and choose what features they are or are not going to put in their cameras. Their choices are just frustrating sometimes.
I have found that for me, in my applications, the HVX is just not enough of a camera. For others it has been fantastic, and that's great. We all have different uses for it. But my only choice as for an "upgrade" to the HVX before the HDX came out was the Varicam. Sorry, but the gap between $6,500 and $65,000 is just too much. Now we have the HDX which is a nice upgrade compared to the SDX, but lacks variable framerates and goes back to tape-based acquisition. Comparatively, it would probably give me the image quality I'd like compared to the HVX - but why should I have to give up features when I'm paying a good $20,000 more to buy it? There's no reason they couldn't implement VFR technology in the HDX, but it would completely cannibalize sales of their Varicam - you know it and I know it - which up until Red, they could justify charging an arm and a leg for. So as the customer, we have to make choices based on compromises because of the pricing system. And again, while I don't believe there's anything inherently wrong about that, it is frustrating for the customer.
Anyway, we're going round and round in circles here and I think that a lot of the discussion is just dancing around the issue and not addressing it. At the end of the day, I honestly don't care if Panasonic continues to price their camera at $65,000 or if they choose to move beyond 2/3" or 1080 or not. We have an alternatve - finally - and as you have said, I believe the market will react and correct itself. The reason this thread even exists is because there was no alternative before; we were just forced to accept. And for all I knew, it did cost $65,000 to make a 720p camera. That has changed. I hope Panasonic will, too.
I don't think Panasonic is "being dishonest" or that they "don't know what they're doing" at all. On the contrary, I think they know exactly what they're doing. And so far it's made them a good amount of money.Does that mean that because they have a good business strategy they can't also be doling out the resolution crumbs at the same time? Why not? That's actually a part of their good business strategy!
The only reason that Red is shaking things up so much is that they are showing us that they can make a camera for $17,500 that gives us 4K resolution, up to 120fps in VFR, the choice of aspect ratios at will, interchangable lens mounts... the list goes on. Say what you will, but you can't really refute that this makes the pricing of a Varicam seem outlandish in comparison. I've noticed that no one who has basically attempted to defend the "Panasonic side" of this discussion has been able to justify that (or any of the other wild pricing strategies they've been using). It's just goofy... and that doesn't make it wrong or immoral or Jan a bad person. It just means that if I'm presented camera "A" that can do everything and costs a fraction of camera "B," well, I know what choice I'm making. And I certainly defend Panasonic's right to charge whatever they want for their cameras and choose what features they are or are not going to put in their cameras. Their choices are just frustrating sometimes.I have found that for me, in my applications, the HVX is just not enough of a camera. For others it has been fantastic, and that's great. We all have different uses for it. But my only choice as for an "upgrade" to the HVX before the HDX came out was the Varicam. Sorry, but the gap between $6,500 and $65,000 is just too much. Now we have the HDX which is a nice upgrade compared to the SDX, but lacks variable framerates and goes back to tape-based acquisition. Comparatively, it would probably give me the image quality I'd like compared to the HVX - but why should I have to give up features when I'm paying a good $20,000 more to buy it? There's no reason they couldn't implement VFR technology in the HDX, but it would completely cannibalize sales of their Varicam - you know it and I know it - which up until Red, they could justify charging an arm and a leg for. So as the customer, we have to make choices based on compromises because of the pricing system. And again, while I don't believe there's anything inherently wrong about that, it is frustrating for the customer.
Anyway, we're going round and round in circles here and I think that a lot of the discussion is just dancing around the issue and not addressing it. At the end of the day, I honestly don't care if Panasonic continues to price their camera at $65,000 or if they choose to move beyond 2/3" or 1080 or not. We have an alternatve - finally - and as you have said, I believe the market will react and correct itself. The reason this thread even exists is because there was no alternative before; we were just forced to accept. And for all I knew, it did cost $65,000 to make a 720p camera. That has changed. I hope Panasonic will, too.
GaryinCalifornia
Veteran
Sproketz said:
He's still tops in a lot of sales or money coming in... wonder they haven't found any losted tapes....
rogar-BigGrin(DBG)Personally I feel the point Overland makes about the adoption of HD standards and its wider is spot on and at the heart of this discussion.
HD is only beginning to take hold in a Television market still predominantly broadcasting in SD. The cost involved to the Broadcasters and public of changing over to HD cannot be underestimated. What has this got to do with the Varicam and Red I hear you say. Well ultimately it all comes down to cost. Red is being aimed at the higher end feature and production market as is the Varicam. In this situation the market will decide which product survives; with competition forcing lagging technologies to catch up or be surpassed. Red is raising the bar in this field but will only succeed if it has all the support and compatability of its competitors.
Larger companies such as Panasonic and Sony will wait before investing in technologies they think the market won't respond to or will not support. So Panasonic/ Sony etc will wait and see what type of threat Red is likely to be before committing time and money to redesign an already sucessfull product such as the Varicam. With HD only beginning to gain a foothold in percentile terms worldwide; those users (myself included )using the lower priced 1/3 inch cameras like the HVX will have many years of service before we need to worry about the next HD standard. Sure technology will improve and the 2/3inch cameras will eventually be introduced as standard in this market but the fact will still remain that for a long time to come HD broadcasts will be either 720 or 1080. For those with greater budgets and resources the technology will improve and competition will force change. Panasonic/ Sony will more than likely be watching the progress of Red and asking themselves what they can do to compete. They will step up to the mark and the technologies will be passed downward to the lower priced models.
The big shift has been from SD to HD; I think the market and technology at the lower level will slow down slightly once the changeover to HD is complete. The fact is the 1/3 inch camera market can only demand a certain price before moving out of this markets reach. I believe Red is pushing the limits of this market; and will only be an alternative for established and well funded productions. So it will come down as it always does to price and competition.
In short I dont think the 1/3 inch camera market has anything to worry about by the arrival of Red. For the mid to high end market yes. If Red is good enough the market will respond and follow suite and prices will be driven down. This can only be good for those operating at the edged of this market who will ultimately benefit from this competition.
HD is only beginning to take hold in a Television market still predominantly broadcasting in SD. The cost involved to the Broadcasters and public of changing over to HD cannot be underestimated. What has this got to do with the Varicam and Red I hear you say. Well ultimately it all comes down to cost. Red is being aimed at the higher end feature and production market as is the Varicam. In this situation the market will decide which product survives; with competition forcing lagging technologies to catch up or be surpassed. Red is raising the bar in this field but will only succeed if it has all the support and compatability of its competitors.
Larger companies such as Panasonic and Sony will wait before investing in technologies they think the market won't respond to or will not support. So Panasonic/ Sony etc will wait and see what type of threat Red is likely to be before committing time and money to redesign an already sucessfull product such as the Varicam. With HD only beginning to gain a foothold in percentile terms worldwide; those users (myself included )using the lower priced 1/3 inch cameras like the HVX will have many years of service before we need to worry about the next HD standard. Sure technology will improve and the 2/3inch cameras will eventually be introduced as standard in this market but the fact will still remain that for a long time to come HD broadcasts will be either 720 or 1080. For those with greater budgets and resources the technology will improve and competition will force change. Panasonic/ Sony will more than likely be watching the progress of Red and asking themselves what they can do to compete. They will step up to the mark and the technologies will be passed downward to the lower priced models.
The big shift has been from SD to HD; I think the market and technology at the lower level will slow down slightly once the changeover to HD is complete. The fact is the 1/3 inch camera market can only demand a certain price before moving out of this markets reach. I believe Red is pushing the limits of this market; and will only be an alternative for established and well funded productions. So it will come down as it always does to price and competition.
In short I dont think the 1/3 inch camera market has anything to worry about by the arrival of Red. For the mid to high end market yes. If Red is good enough the market will respond and follow suite and prices will be driven down. This can only be good for those operating at the edged of this market who will ultimately benefit from this competition.
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androbot2084
Carbonite Member
I think over the air broadcasting will be 1080i and 720p for a long time but fiber optic cables have great potential for 4k broadcasting. Fibre optics can handle a lot of bandwidth and there is no reason why we cannot make the transition from SD to 4k HD and skip all of the in between steps. I mean if the technology is there why not take advantage of it? When new communication buildings are installed it gets wired with fiber optic cables that have enough bandwidth to handle the 20 layer thick 3 dimensional 8k holographic displays 20 years into the future. It is a lot cheaper to overkill today than to pay for the labor to rip out obsolete wires.
ALL company's have to make a PROFIT !!!! no profit = no company
one product might have a higher % profit then another .. that could be because it's a higher unit to provide service or it just plain and simple has a higher profit ... i have no problem if sony makes more $$ ( %) off cineAlta then FX1 or if it is reversed ...
IMO it has been PANASONIC that has been offering the new & innovative products the past 5 years AND you have noticed that others are now following with products to compete.
bottom line it's the MARKET PLACE that will have the final say .. if RED or anybody comes out with a product and nobody BUYS ( or it doesn't make profit) then you are not going to see anybody follow .. if RED comes out and it sells like candy others will follow offering like product over time ... any time you see a company making $$$$ you'll see like products down the line...
one product might have a higher % profit then another .. that could be because it's a higher unit to provide service or it just plain and simple has a higher profit ... i have no problem if sony makes more $$ ( %) off cineAlta then FX1 or if it is reversed ...
IMO it has been PANASONIC that has been offering the new & innovative products the past 5 years AND you have noticed that others are now following with products to compete.
bottom line it's the MARKET PLACE that will have the final say .. if RED or anybody comes out with a product and nobody BUYS ( or it doesn't make profit) then you are not going to see anybody follow .. if RED comes out and it sells like candy others will follow offering like product over time ... any time you see a company making $$$$ you'll see like products down the line...
Emanuel
Cross-Examiner
RED is an outsider @our_side -- the customer side, while the major companies are always thinking as exclusively their own marketer's POV.
If it sells for a specific price -- overpriced or not, it doesn't matter in any way other than as their own pocket and interest.
That's the way it works.
In the 20's when the sound was ready to go to the theaters, the companies' power didn't want and didn't let it 'till a half dozen years later.
They could give to the market what we are dreaming but they aren't interested. Until when? Just to RED's out to the market, I believe.
If it sells for a specific price -- overpriced or not, it doesn't matter in any way other than as their own pocket and interest.
That's the way it works.
In the 20's when the sound was ready to go to the theaters, the companies' power didn't want and didn't let it 'till a half dozen years later.
They could give to the market what we are dreaming but they aren't interested. Until when? Just to RED's out to the market, I believe.