Yes... Nintendo Wee... Don't you guys think that gaming is starting to be a very good comunicating form? The therm " interactive movie" is something that makes every one that experienced such " classics" like Night Trap or Kriss Kross MTV have cold chills, but just look at Metal Gear Solid 4- That game is as close to an Interactive movie experience as it gets... Do you see yourself "directing" a game? All filming techniques are applied... It will be hard, tough, to have some sort of Independent games Festivals, like film festivals...
Cost Comparison: P2 vs. XDCAM
- Thread starter John Rivers
- Start date
The Sarlacc
Well-known member
The PS3 is $500 buck, $600 if you want an HDMI out on it. Pricing was annoucned at E3.
They priced themselves out of the market. Its too much for a video game system.
Porn will have no bearing on this format war...too much porn is online now for people to care about getting the newest home theater technology to masturbate to.
There is no hype regrading either format, not even with the PS3...which has been delayed and delayed.
We are looking at SVHS, DVHS, SACD, DVD-A....we are looking at phile formats. Because the general public doesnt know and doesnt care, and the release of two competing formats just confuses them even more...And I'll bet 75% of them dont even know HD-DVD is already out...there has been no marketing.
Bring on the next thing.
They priced themselves out of the market. Its too much for a video game system.
Porn will have no bearing on this format war...too much porn is online now for people to care about getting the newest home theater technology to masturbate to.
There is no hype regrading either format, not even with the PS3...which has been delayed and delayed.
We are looking at SVHS, DVHS, SACD, DVD-A....we are looking at phile formats. Because the general public doesnt know and doesnt care, and the release of two competing formats just confuses them even more...And I'll bet 75% of them dont even know HD-DVD is already out...there has been no marketing.
Bring on the next thing.
John Rivers
Active member
The Sarlacc said:
I'd have to disagree about pricing themselves entirely out of the market. Companies like Voodoo PC or Falcon Northwest sell gaming machines costing upwards of $2000+ dollars everyday. Heck, Dell just recently bought Alienware (and Dell's own XPS systems have been doing pretty good last I checked), so it's obvious there's some money there. So people WILL buy the PS3, and a good number too. Besides, it's just market skimming, the price will drop.
As for the two different prices for the two units: the $500 non-HDMI unit will be sold to parents whos children think a PS3 is their only chance to achieve true happiness, and the $600 version will easily be bought by techies who both know what HDMI is, and if they can afford an HDMI TV, the $100 price jump shouldn't detere them much. Format hype also just comes with time. If Sony can push their UMD format to the point that we're constantly reminded how King Kong is "now available on both DVD and UMD!" (despite, forgive me if this sounds harsh, STUPID and OVERPRICED that format is), I don't see why HD-DVD and Blu-Ray won't be following suit.
I doubt the competing formats are going to matter THAT much. Think about how crazy things were with the whole DVD-R, DVD+R, DVD+-RW, blah blah... If THAT was able to get sorted out, this shouldn't pose too much of an issue. One of these formats will make some headway. Look at it this way: what will most households buy? A format such as HD-DVD or Blu-Ray which is compatible with an electronic they already use or own (laptop, or PS3, or XBox 360, etc.), or something that works with neither?
Still maintaining my position and entirely agree with you that as anything more than a distribution format, Blu-Ray isn't going to cut it. I've just seen too many parents buying their kids a PSP and game for $300+ to believe that they're going to completely flop, heheh. :costumed-smiley-047
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ESTEBEVERDE
Veteran
Cam-Ra said:Hmmm...okay...here's some more math for you:
50,000 uses per 8gb card x 20min max storage capacity (using 24pn) = 1,000,000 min of footage
1,000,000 min of footage / 60 min per hour = 16,666 hours of footage
16,666 hours of recording + 16,666 hours to offload = 33,332 total work hours
33,332 work hours / 40 hours in an average work week = 833.3 weeks
833.3 weeks / 52 weeks in year = 16 years
The likelyhood of you using a single 8gb card for 16 years = 0%
With enough equations, one can prove anything...
P2 is still better than Xdcam though...
EXACTLY FOOW!!! :costumed-smiley-047
The Sarlacc
Well-known member
John Rivers said:
Except that UMD is dying. Many studios have stopped or slowed production of UMD movies, Many places wont rent them, Many stores dont want to lose any more shelf space to stocking them, and the biggest kick in the pants...Sony will most likely NOT even support the format in the next gen or PSP.
As for burners...who cares. Buying one would mean having to buy both in order to suit which client owns which drive/player...screw that mess.
Too many negatives invloved to insure a clear cut, industry dominating winner.
John Rivers
Active member
The Sarlacc said:
Yea, I've NEVER understood the logic behind UMD. "Pay more money for the same movies with less content and more limited usefulness!" WOOO!
But Sony HAS on previous occasions mentioned compatibility between the PSP and PS3 (in what manner, who knows), so while UMD support might be slowing down, it'll take a couple years until its DEAD.
Definitely right about the burners. While one could argue that DVD had the same problem back in the day ("what should I buy??? DVD+R?? -R??? Or what about that exotic DVD-RAM drive in the corner?? AHHH!!"), that was eventually resolved to some extent by burners which supported both formats. However, it appears the differences between our two new competitors (Blu-Ray and HD-DVD, for those just tuning in) are a bit more pronounced, and I'm not sure just how compatible the technology is going to be.
I guess my (semi-crazed) logic behind my belief that one of the two formats will prevail boiis down to: what other options ARE there? HD is definitely pushing itself into the market. And even us filmmakers and HVX-lovers (or HDV-lovers on the other side of the electric barbed wire fence) are wanting some manner of distributing our HD content and go beyond 480p, lest out HD-investment lose a great deal of value. If that means having to buy both burners to satisfy clients, you might not have too much of a choice. If a company had to choose between someone who rebelled against being a victim of the format wars, or the guy/girl/wookie who can offer 1080p footage to display at their next big trade show...well, you go with the wookie!
...ok, no idea where that came from, lol, but yea, you get what I mean. :thumbsup:
What I honestly see happening is this: Blu-Ray or HD-DVD, since they're being backed and pushed by companies with money and influence to spare, will compete to become the next wide-spread consumer format, the replacement to DVD, and one of them will succeed. However, just like the professional video market didn't buy into direct-to-DVD (or Mini-DVD cartridge) acquisition, Blu-Ray and HD-DVD similarly will only ever succeed "bridge tech" status, as Barry and The Sarlacc eloquently discussed, as opposed to more beautiful, glorious, and peace-loving formats like...oh I dunno lemme see...P2 or (one day) Holograph?
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The Sarlacc
Well-known member
John Rivers said:
The logic behind UMD...look at DVHS: HD, no features, better then DVD, still a tape based format...even more of a phile format then laserdisc.
My guess compatiblity between the PSP and PS3 will boil down to a cable like nintendo does, or memory stick.
We'll see what the future brings. Those of us on the brink of technology are ALWAYS wanting someway to display our work as best we can. But Sony is as Sony does...and I dont love Toshiba either...and apparently they dont love each other.
We'll see who is the first to release an optical holographic disk (300gb per side.) That is what we will all want to invest in.
Barry_Green
Moderator
I don't see either blu-ray or HD-DVD catching on, really. Because they're not formats the consumer wants. They're formats the MANUFACTURERS want, and more importantly, they're formats the STUDIOS want.
So let them buy it. We'll buy what we want.
What else will there be? I predict that there'll be something on the order of cheap red-laser H.264 players. Regular DVD players that will be adapted to use 9-megabit H.264 distribution. And probably people will spring up and start their own revolution, totally ignoring the super-DRM-crippled blu-laser formats.
It's like Napster. End users created their own (totally illegal) distribution format. And while the RIAA fought it, Steve Jobs looked at it and said "hey, let's find a way to legalize this." Next thing you know, iTunes is launched, it proves to be massively popular, and music distribution is being changed forever.
I figure the same thing will happen with films. Nobody bought SACD, nobody bought DVD-Audio, and nobody's clamoring for Blu-Ray or HD-DVD. But sure we'd all like high-def if we could get it. So what about a $49 red laser DVD player that has HD component outputs and plays high-def H.264-encoded films from standard cheap DVDs?
Already DVD players are stepping outside their old boundaries; there are players like the LinkPlayer and the Buffalo player that can play WMV9-HD DVDs. Instead of new manufacturing processes and new factories and massive royalties per disc, you could use existing burners and existing cheap discs. DVD players already can play back music CDs, MP3's, JPGs, slideshows... it could be a very minor leap for them to add h.264 high-def playback.
Remember that DIVX had major studios behind it, and one of the biggest retailers in the world, and it flopped hideously. As did the whole disposable-DVD concept, strongly pushed by Disney. When corporations try to force a new format on consumers, that consumers don't want, it flops. Which is why blu-ray and HD-DVD in their current form will flop also.
But something else will take its place.
I'm betting either a development in red-laser DVDs and H.264, or skipping the optical disc entirely and going straight to IPTV distribution.
So let them buy it. We'll buy what we want.
What else will there be? I predict that there'll be something on the order of cheap red-laser H.264 players. Regular DVD players that will be adapted to use 9-megabit H.264 distribution. And probably people will spring up and start their own revolution, totally ignoring the super-DRM-crippled blu-laser formats.
It's like Napster. End users created their own (totally illegal) distribution format. And while the RIAA fought it, Steve Jobs looked at it and said "hey, let's find a way to legalize this." Next thing you know, iTunes is launched, it proves to be massively popular, and music distribution is being changed forever.
I figure the same thing will happen with films. Nobody bought SACD, nobody bought DVD-Audio, and nobody's clamoring for Blu-Ray or HD-DVD. But sure we'd all like high-def if we could get it. So what about a $49 red laser DVD player that has HD component outputs and plays high-def H.264-encoded films from standard cheap DVDs?
Already DVD players are stepping outside their old boundaries; there are players like the LinkPlayer and the Buffalo player that can play WMV9-HD DVDs. Instead of new manufacturing processes and new factories and massive royalties per disc, you could use existing burners and existing cheap discs. DVD players already can play back music CDs, MP3's, JPGs, slideshows... it could be a very minor leap for them to add h.264 high-def playback.
Remember that DIVX had major studios behind it, and one of the biggest retailers in the world, and it flopped hideously. As did the whole disposable-DVD concept, strongly pushed by Disney. When corporations try to force a new format on consumers, that consumers don't want, it flops. Which is why blu-ray and HD-DVD in their current form will flop also.
But something else will take its place.
I'm betting either a development in red-laser DVDs and H.264, or skipping the optical disc entirely and going straight to IPTV distribution.
There's some very dodgy assumptions going on here.
Firstly I'd seriously have to doubt any PCMCIA card surviving 50,000 in/out cycles, people have had cards fail just doing that in laptops at less than 1,000 cycles.
Secondly the assumption is that only the card connectors can fail, what about when the male pins in the camera fail?
Here's the insidious problem with ALL connection systems.
They all use a hard base metal covered witha soft metal, typically gold. For the system to achieve good cycle counts two things are needed. The porosity of the gold plating has to be very low, if not oxygen reaches the base metal and it corrodes leading to gross shedding of the plating. Secondly the hardness of the plating on both the male and female had to be identical. If not then one surface slowly scrapes the plating off the other.
This leads to scenarios where things can go wrong but just what's going wrong can be hard to determine.
For example if the gold plating on the male pins in your laptop has failed. Your P2 cards will work for a while however every cycle you are damaging the plating on the P2 cards female sockets. You'd be inclined to blame the P2 card when it becomes intermittent as a new one will work fine and you'd be wrong, what really is faulty is the pins in your laptop that are slowly eating into your P2 cards.
To minimise the risk of this you need to be very certain that everything you plug your P2 card into is designed AND QA'ed to the same plating spec, there's some very dodgy connector manufacturers around. Good quality gold plating is expensive and difficult to achieve.
If you get P2 card connections failing don't assume it's the P2 cards at fault, take a long hard look at everything you plug them into!
Moving along.
There's zero time involved in archiving XDCAM disks, like tape, the camera disk is the archive. The only valid comparison is if you factor in copying P2 to tape or XDCAM disks.
People keep confusing the consumer BD HiDef delivery system with XDCAM, apart from using the same optical technology there's no other commonality. BD can flop totally in the marketplace (I for one think it will) and XDCAM could still succeed. Well based on uptake XDCAM is already a success. The disks have proved to be very robust, a dunking in saltwater doesn't harm them. Based on the number of them in use in ENG situations so far the recording system seems to be holding up under extreme conditions, at least a laser only needs precise alignment not any contact to work.
Let's not forget one other important fact, the pro Panny cameras that use P2 cards hold a lot more of those cards than the HVX 200, that translates into a lot less connector cycling. Also those cameras are mostly SD cameras so even less card cycling.
Firstly I'd seriously have to doubt any PCMCIA card surviving 50,000 in/out cycles, people have had cards fail just doing that in laptops at less than 1,000 cycles.
Secondly the assumption is that only the card connectors can fail, what about when the male pins in the camera fail?
Here's the insidious problem with ALL connection systems.
They all use a hard base metal covered witha soft metal, typically gold. For the system to achieve good cycle counts two things are needed. The porosity of the gold plating has to be very low, if not oxygen reaches the base metal and it corrodes leading to gross shedding of the plating. Secondly the hardness of the plating on both the male and female had to be identical. If not then one surface slowly scrapes the plating off the other.
This leads to scenarios where things can go wrong but just what's going wrong can be hard to determine.
For example if the gold plating on the male pins in your laptop has failed. Your P2 cards will work for a while however every cycle you are damaging the plating on the P2 cards female sockets. You'd be inclined to blame the P2 card when it becomes intermittent as a new one will work fine and you'd be wrong, what really is faulty is the pins in your laptop that are slowly eating into your P2 cards.
To minimise the risk of this you need to be very certain that everything you plug your P2 card into is designed AND QA'ed to the same plating spec, there's some very dodgy connector manufacturers around. Good quality gold plating is expensive and difficult to achieve.
If you get P2 card connections failing don't assume it's the P2 cards at fault, take a long hard look at everything you plug them into!
Moving along.
There's zero time involved in archiving XDCAM disks, like tape, the camera disk is the archive. The only valid comparison is if you factor in copying P2 to tape or XDCAM disks.
People keep confusing the consumer BD HiDef delivery system with XDCAM, apart from using the same optical technology there's no other commonality. BD can flop totally in the marketplace (I for one think it will) and XDCAM could still succeed. Well based on uptake XDCAM is already a success. The disks have proved to be very robust, a dunking in saltwater doesn't harm them. Based on the number of them in use in ENG situations so far the recording system seems to be holding up under extreme conditions, at least a laser only needs precise alignment not any contact to work.
Let's not forget one other important fact, the pro Panny cameras that use P2 cards hold a lot more of those cards than the HVX 200, that translates into a lot less connector cycling. Also those cameras are mostly SD cameras so even less card cycling.
The Sarlacc
Well-known member
Barry_Green said:
I have been screaming this one from the mountain tops, but have recently backed down. A lot of people I know in the web world and IT are saying the amount of storage ,cost, and bandwidth are just not here yet to support mass HD feature film downloads.
I hope they are wrong...but they work in that field. I do not. So, I give them the benefit of the doubt.
The Sarlacc
Well-known member
robroysyd, you like to talk about card failing a lot...here is my reply.
I have owned quite a few digital still cameras. My current set up being a D100 (CF) and SD400 (SD.)
Prior to that I owned a S110 (CF) for about 5 years.
I have NEVER had a card fail or stop working on me the entire I've been shooting stills.
I have NEVER known anyone else with a digital solid state using camera to have a card fail on them.
I have known ONE person who bent a pin in their camera due to slamming the card in too fast and at the wrong angle.
I'd say solid state has a very proven track record, and I will use for as long as its around until something better comes along.
Using a camera that burns the image to a spinning disk with a moving laser has just as much or MORE potential to fail out in the field as camera using a memory card with no moving parts.
I didnt like the idea of XD Cam two years ago...I dont like it now.
I have owned quite a few digital still cameras. My current set up being a D100 (CF) and SD400 (SD.)
Prior to that I owned a S110 (CF) for about 5 years.
I have NEVER had a card fail or stop working on me the entire I've been shooting stills.
I have NEVER known anyone else with a digital solid state using camera to have a card fail on them.
I have known ONE person who bent a pin in their camera due to slamming the card in too fast and at the wrong angle.
I'd say solid state has a very proven track record, and I will use for as long as its around until something better comes along.
Using a camera that burns the image to a spinning disk with a moving laser has just as much or MORE potential to fail out in the field as camera using a memory card with no moving parts.
I didnt like the idea of XD Cam two years ago...I dont like it now.
gregcotten
Member
The Sarlacc said:
Wrong.
The Sarlacc
Well-known member
gregcotten said:
Wow, that's an amazing rebuttle.
We are in this thread having a very friendly civilized discussion/debate. And coming in here with a weightless one word reply holds no water.
why don't you elaborate on why you think I'm wrong? Because quite frankly I don't think I am.
It remains to be seen, and time will tell us the real outcome. But simply stating "wrong" christ, I should go alert the media at such a ground breaking and revolutonary statement...
The Sarlacc said:
Agreed,
I too have a DSC that uses CF cards, the connection system is pretty much the same as that used on PCMCIA. Memory sticks use a different system, a sliding contact.
However how many times does one swap cards in a DSC?
User care will undoubtley play a large part in how well these things hold up in the field, I suspect it'll be the ones who have problems with tape that'll have problems with P2 cards. We've had people do unimaginable things to tape based cameras, like trying to jam a tape into an already loaded DVCAM camera.
And I'm certainly not saying that XDCAM is failure proof either, eventually the laser(s) will fail and it'll be a complete failure, I've already worn out the lasers in several DVD players and burners. Flash memory also has a limited cycle life however it's so large these days as to be irrelevant.
The crucial point though is that interconnection systems are just that, systems. They rely on careful engineering of the plug and the socket and I have no doubt that Panasonic put considerable effort into that. They have control over the various P2 devices that they make, they have no control over the other devices that we may elect to plug the cards into.
Whether your preference is tape, BD disk or P2 cards the important point is understanding how these systems work leads to knowing how to care for it. The best engineering in the world can be undone in a moment of user carelessness.
Making an effort to keep crud out of the P2 card sockets will go a HUGE way to improving their life. Blindly assuming these things are unbreakable is silly. I'm NOT dissing the concept of solid state recording, it's clearly the superior technology. If I was implementing it I'd use a card with only two large contacts for power and an optical interface, that'd add a bit to the cost but avoid the contact wear issue. Even if the optical path became blocked due to dirt it'd be simple enough to clean it.
BTW, Pelican make a small case that's ideal for holding a number of PCMICA sized cards. Adding a small packet of silica gel (that you change regularly) would be a good move if working in tropical environments.
BobDiaz
The Professor
In terms of P2 product life, the flash memory has around a 100,000 cycle limit. This is so large, that at it comes out to around 13,333 hours per 8 GB card.
The insert limit, 30,000 times, is the weak link here. 8 minutes x 30,000 times / 2 inserts (one camera, one computer) = about 2,000 hours per card.
No specification for the camera is given, but let's assume the same number 30,000 times for inserts. With two slots, at 8 minutes per slot, times 30,000 inserts = around 8,000 hours of material.
At that point, the camera still works, but the P2 connectors in the camera would need to be changed.
Even if you shoot 20 hours of material per week, assume 2 weeks vacation, that comes to 1,000 hours per year of material.
Thus at that rate, it will take you 8 years to worry about replacing the connectors in the camera and 2 years to replace a P2 card. After 2 years, 16GB, and maybe 32 GB, P2 cards will be out, so you will want to replace the older card with the newer and larger P2 card.
The number of operation hours before a failure is so large, that most of you will want to replace the camera with something newer and better long before you reach the MTBF (Mean Time Before Failure) of the equipment.
Bob Diaz
The insert limit, 30,000 times, is the weak link here. 8 minutes x 30,000 times / 2 inserts (one camera, one computer) = about 2,000 hours per card.
No specification for the camera is given, but let's assume the same number 30,000 times for inserts. With two slots, at 8 minutes per slot, times 30,000 inserts = around 8,000 hours of material.
At that point, the camera still works, but the P2 connectors in the camera would need to be changed.
Even if you shoot 20 hours of material per week, assume 2 weeks vacation, that comes to 1,000 hours per year of material.
Thus at that rate, it will take you 8 years to worry about replacing the connectors in the camera and 2 years to replace a P2 card. After 2 years, 16GB, and maybe 32 GB, P2 cards will be out, so you will want to replace the older card with the newer and larger P2 card.
The number of operation hours before a failure is so large, that most of you will want to replace the camera with something newer and better long before you reach the MTBF (Mean Time Before Failure) of the equipment.
Bob Diaz
Barry_Green said:
I agree with that 100%, I do think BR will find its nitch in video games and data back-up though and MAYBE acquisition. HD-DVD is already dead in the water IMHO. Is average Joe going to RE-BUY The 5th Element for the 4th time? Prolly not... sorry but to most people 480p DVD versus HD-DVD is a marginal improvement at best. Once quality reaches "good enough" it is no longer the determining factor in driving technology. More people are listening to MP3s now than CDs... even though CD is easily the superior sounding format... MP3, as DVD, is good enough.
ash =o)
Let me clear up... BR is not the future, it IS a bridge to maybe hologram tech but that may be 5-10-20 years off to actual affordable implementation. Optical is not optimum but it is way cheaper and it's own back-up. The worst case is that you are stuck with BR discs you have to transfer to holodisc or whatever... worst case with P2 is that you lose everything you ever shot. People whine about tape all the time... me... personally... I am waiting for HDD to go away....
ash =o)
ash =o)
The Sarlacc
Well-known member
robroysyd said:
Everytime I want to get the pictures. For my DLSR, I remove the CF card and put into a PCMCIA adapter I slide into my powerbook. And for my SD400 I use a card reader.
I very much agree with you. But I also am anal with gear. Be it my own or a rental house. I like to keep things as clean and new as possible. I hate people who think that because they rent they shouldn't have to care for equpiment.
Daniel Cohen
New member
This thread started out as a cost comparison between P2 and XDCAM. So, after having used my HVX200 and 2 8GB P2 cards for the past month, I can say this:
Panasonic HVX200 Camera: $6000
8GB P2 Card: $1400
Recording 100 Mbit/second HD footage in a 4:2:2 color space on a solid state medium with no moving parts and having the ability to delete a bad take with a few button clicks: Priceless
And don't forget that P2 can actually handle up to 640 Mbit/second. I don't think XDCAM can come anywhere near that.
-Daniel Cohen
Panasonic HVX200 Camera: $6000
8GB P2 Card: $1400
Recording 100 Mbit/second HD footage in a 4:2:2 color space on a solid state medium with no moving parts and having the ability to delete a bad take with a few button clicks: Priceless
And don't forget that P2 can actually handle up to 640 Mbit/second. I don't think XDCAM can come anywhere near that.
-Daniel Cohen
Antoine_Fabi
Well-known member
===================================================
Quote:
I agree with that 100%, I do think BR will find its nitch in video games and data back-up though and MAYBE acquisition. HD-DVD is already dead in the water IMHO. Is average Joe going to RE-BUY The 5th Element for the 4th time? Prolly not... sorry but to most people 480p DVD versus HD-DVD is a marginal improvement at best. Once quality reaches "good enough" it is no longer the determining factor in driving technology. More people are listening to MP3s now than CDs... even though CD is easily the superior sounding format... MP3, as DVD, is good enough.
ash =o)
===================================================
Funny...no ?
...and people want to watch TV on cell phones...
Quote:
I agree with that 100%, I do think BR will find its nitch in video games and data back-up though and MAYBE acquisition. HD-DVD is already dead in the water IMHO. Is average Joe going to RE-BUY The 5th Element for the 4th time? Prolly not... sorry but to most people 480p DVD versus HD-DVD is a marginal improvement at best. Once quality reaches "good enough" it is no longer the determining factor in driving technology. More people are listening to MP3s now than CDs... even though CD is easily the superior sounding format... MP3, as DVD, is good enough.
ash =o)
===================================================
Funny...no ?
...and people want to watch TV on cell phones...
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