basspig
Veteran
Thomas Nogales is pretty good at market prediction. He's out of stocks and bonds and into gold right now. Anything else is risky.
http://www.thomasnogales.com/
From his October report:
"I've called the first phase of this process The Big Markdown where asset prices drop in price. We're only part way through it. Phase two will usher in massive bond defaults and job losses. Phase three will include a currency collapse when the dollar is dropped as the world reserve currency. In phase one, asset prices fall. In phase two institutional promises to pay debts like pensions, annuities and bond insurance fail. In phase three the currency fails and systemic economic failure occurs and most probably amid very high inflation. Phase three could be avoided if there was international cooperation on debt rescheduling and America made a national commitment to financial solvency. Failure is not inevitable if internal forces were properly directed and external forces were cooperative. I doubt we'll see the optimistic scenario. That's because the oil depletion crisis will arrive at about the same time and stress economies across the globe (with some notable exceptions).
I think we're facing many years of negative interest rates. This is a condition where the rate of inflation exceeds the rate earned on treasury bills. Thus, holding cash will be a losing game. Gold will move up with inflation and will move dramatically upward as the dollar weakens. The only other asset likely to match or exceed gold's rise will be oil. We're probably near or past the point of maximum world oil production or will be within a few years.
As investors, our primary issue is to contemplate the consequences and decide what must we do now. Let me first make a statement so you know where I stand.
I firmly believe that most investors reading this eletter will be essentially broke within ten years. Your money will be lost to inflation, a dollar decline and a series of failed defensive asset repositioning's that won't protect your savings.
Each phase of our national insolvency has a particular course of action to follow and missing the transition points will quickly erode asset values. That's why very few will survive with meaningful liquid assets intact.
I'll offer my opinion on what to do but with the caveat that I could be wrong and possibly very wrong. You should and must countercheck anything I say against the opinion of a competent professional and consider all sides of the arguments carefully. I don't have psychic powers or an all knowing ability to predict the financial markets. At turning points, I've been right or lucky so far but may be wrong next time. With that in mind, let's go."
Definately riveting stuff. He predicts a difficult decline because of being past 'peak oil' reserves and with the world running out of oil, energy costs, which directly affect profit and economic health of an economy, will skyrocket. It's going to be an interesting winter.. Excuse me while I write out the check for $8,000 for this year's heating oil..
http://www.thomasnogales.com/
From his October report:
"I've called the first phase of this process The Big Markdown where asset prices drop in price. We're only part way through it. Phase two will usher in massive bond defaults and job losses. Phase three will include a currency collapse when the dollar is dropped as the world reserve currency. In phase one, asset prices fall. In phase two institutional promises to pay debts like pensions, annuities and bond insurance fail. In phase three the currency fails and systemic economic failure occurs and most probably amid very high inflation. Phase three could be avoided if there was international cooperation on debt rescheduling and America made a national commitment to financial solvency. Failure is not inevitable if internal forces were properly directed and external forces were cooperative. I doubt we'll see the optimistic scenario. That's because the oil depletion crisis will arrive at about the same time and stress economies across the globe (with some notable exceptions).
I think we're facing many years of negative interest rates. This is a condition where the rate of inflation exceeds the rate earned on treasury bills. Thus, holding cash will be a losing game. Gold will move up with inflation and will move dramatically upward as the dollar weakens. The only other asset likely to match or exceed gold's rise will be oil. We're probably near or past the point of maximum world oil production or will be within a few years.
As investors, our primary issue is to contemplate the consequences and decide what must we do now. Let me first make a statement so you know where I stand.
I firmly believe that most investors reading this eletter will be essentially broke within ten years. Your money will be lost to inflation, a dollar decline and a series of failed defensive asset repositioning's that won't protect your savings.
Each phase of our national insolvency has a particular course of action to follow and missing the transition points will quickly erode asset values. That's why very few will survive with meaningful liquid assets intact.
I'll offer my opinion on what to do but with the caveat that I could be wrong and possibly very wrong. You should and must countercheck anything I say against the opinion of a competent professional and consider all sides of the arguments carefully. I don't have psychic powers or an all knowing ability to predict the financial markets. At turning points, I've been right or lucky so far but may be wrong next time. With that in mind, let's go."
Definately riveting stuff. He predicts a difficult decline because of being past 'peak oil' reserves and with the world running out of oil, energy costs, which directly affect profit and economic health of an economy, will skyrocket. It's going to be an interesting winter.. Excuse me while I write out the check for $8,000 for this year's heating oil..
I'm going to invest in ugafan's sense of humor. Because it's pure gold and shows no signs of failure.
