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    I laid out all the reasoning underlying my assessment. Feel free to make your own decisions. Doctors make misdiagnoses and misprescriptions all the time. What do you think is the purpose of seeking a second opinion? I could detail the malpractice, negligence, and incredibly stupid misdiagnoses and misprescriptions that my wife and I have personally experienced. Common sense is an asset

    I remember early this year when a statistician (Nate Silver) criticized the vaccine rollout guidelines (age-related and other prioritizations) and was met with the same response: what do you know about public health? Subsequently, the rollout guidelines were adjusted in accordance with his critiques (but probably not because of them) because his assessment was correct

    BTW do you remember when "2 top FDA officials resigned over the Biden administration's booster-shot plan, saying it insisted on the policy before the agency approved it" https://www.businessinsider.com/2-to...reports-2021-9

    If there isn't consensus among the medical community, let alone unanimity, then how are you supposed to make decisions without critical thinking?
    Last edited by ahalpert; 10-29-2021, 08:15 AM.
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      Originally posted by ahalpert View Post

      If there isn't consensus among the medical community, let alone unanimity, then how are you supposed to make decisions without critical thinking?
      But here is the problem: complex areas of inquiry (like medicine) require specialized knowledge, and it takes specialized knowledge and expertise to make educated, informed, rational (or as rational as possible) decisions within those fields.

      No one, no matter how smart, can be an expert in all things.

      So the options are to make uneducated decisions on a majority of topics (since we are all inexpert on a majority of knowledge) or to trust others who are experts.

      BUT you still need to pick which experts to listen to, since most fields don't have unanimous agreement. And evaluating those experts with any real skill often means you need specialized knowledge. So...

      I appreciate your hesitation and skepticism, especially since "experts" have totally destroyed public trust in our lifetimes, but common sense and critical thinking aren't really viable options for things like epidemiology (or nuclear physics, or camera sensor technology, etc. etc.). They're not even great for evaluating the people who are experts, let alone for evaluating their specific areas of expertise.

      I don't have a solution, unfortunately.

      Comment


        Originally posted by drboffa View Post
        So the options are to make uneducated decisions on a majority of topics (since we are all inexpert on a majority of knowledge) or to trust others who are experts.
        When I read study papers on PubMed, i basically just read the introduction and conclusion. I lack the background to understand the description of study methodology (or evaluate its merits) or to grasp the discussion of medical minutia in the results section.

        so, I trust the experts who ran the study and reported the findings to sum it up in an accurate and honest introduction and conclusion, which I am usually able to understand.

        Same thing with covid: I don't understand all the ins and outs of epidemiology. But I can understand the argument for how masking would diminish contagiousness. (Some people applied that common sense understanding early in the epidemic and said that we should all be wearing masks. This was when the government told us it was unnecessary (even though medical personnel were doing it) because, as we later found out, they wanted to hoard masks for doctors. Which makes sense, but it was dishonest and manipulative. And people could have fashioned masks from clothing.)

        I can read reports of statistics and side effects and make a decision about the best course of action for myself and my children. I absolutely rely on experts to provide that information and statistics, but I can draw my own conclusions from it.
        www.AbeFilms.com

        All men are brothers

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          Originally posted by ahalpert View Post

          When I read study papers on PubMed, i basically just read the introduction and conclusion. I lack the background to understand the description of study methodology (or evaluate its merits) or to grasp the discussion of medical minutia in the results section.

          so, I trust the experts who ran the study and reported the findings to sum it up in an accurate and honest introduction and conclusion, which I am usually able to understand.
          But this is the issue! How do you know which study designs are methodologically sound and which are crap? Or which experts played with the data to get a result? Lots of experts (of varying quality) have been publishing lots of articles (of varying quality) in lots of journals (of varying quality).

          Being able to read intros and conclusions is great (and probably better than trusting most science reporting) but it's a long way from being able to determine which studies are valuable and which are useless, if not outright dangerous.

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            But I'm not basing my conclusions on different studies or reporting. I'm ingesting the exact same information that belies official guidance and drawing a different conclusion. I'm also not reading pubmed papers about covid on a regular basis, it was just an illustration of the stage at which I can personally interact with science. Most of my covid thinking is based on newspaper articles from the NYT and various outlets that are unabashedly pro-vaccination and essentially trusting of technocrats
            www.AbeFilms.com

            All men are brothers

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              Okay, I see: so you're looking at the studies in the news rather than at the news' summaries of those studies.

              Certainly a step in the right direction, although (as you note) this automatically implies a degree of "expert" selection (i.e., which studies do the news outlets and government agencies decide to promote/follow). But going to the source, assuming one can interpret the source, is almost always preferable compared to relying solely on mainstream news science reporting. I still think there are problems in reading things as a way to confirm previously held beliefs (like vaccine hesitancy—just speaking broadly, not about you or anyone in particular), but that's not necessarily unique to laypeople.

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                This pandemic is really starting to wear on me, and I know I'm not the only one. While I understood quite a while ago that we'd be living with Covid forever, actually living it is something else. I've been doing a deep dive on this latest variant, and it looks real bad folks, escaping previous immunity and possibly five hundred percent more infectious than the OG strain. Delta was only 70 percent more infectious. Early reporting suggests it has milder symptoms but most epidemiologists say there isn't enough data to make a conclusion there. Even if it is, it's so easily spread it's going to overwhelm the hospitals, impact supply chains, etc. And then who knows how this variant will mutate further? I don't see a return to normal in sight. Only real hope is that the targeted therapeutic drugs coming soon are safe and effective. I'm sure I'll get some pushback here, but I just wanted to give folks a heads up. We'll soon find out how bad it's going to be.
                "Money doesn't make films...You just do it and take the initiative." - Werner Herzog

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                  Millions likely share your opinion.

                  It's good to think positive and have faith (or think fate) - but no, not always against viruses, IMO.

                  I'm not a scientist, but I think it's too late.

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                    Germany is on a lockdown for the unvaccinated. Austria has a similar program in place (some details may diverge).

                    The Bundesliga (Germany's top soccer league) is again limiting the number of fans in the stadiums to 15,000 and may again go fan-free in Bavaria.

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by Batutta View Post
                      This pandemic is really starting to wear on me, and I know I'm not the only one. While I understood quite a while ago that we'd be living with Covid forever, actually living it is something else. I've been doing a deep dive on this latest variant, and it looks real bad folks, escaping previous immunity and possibly five hundred percent more infectious than the OG strain. Delta was only 70 percent more infectious. Early reporting suggests it has milder symptoms but most epidemiologists say there isn't enough data to make a conclusion there. Even if it is, it's so easily spread it's going to overwhelm the hospitals, impact supply chains, etc. And then who knows how this variant will mutate further? I don't see a return to normal in sight. Only real hope is that the targeted therapeutic drugs coming soon are safe and effective. I'm sure I'll get some pushback here, but I just wanted to give folks a heads up. We'll soon find out how bad it's going to be.
                      The initial state of vigilance we undertook is impossible to sustain perpetually. Not that we're doing quite that. (I mean, I was spending an hour disinfecting my groceries on every trip. And I'd do that again if presented with the same facts and uncertainties about a different virus.)

                      One thing that makes me hopeful about omicron is that supposedly it mutated in an immunocompromised HIV patient. Which is a theory that initially sounded kind of prejudiced to me, but supposedly some knowledgeable scientists have pushed it.

                      If Omicron could hang around in a weak immune system for long enough to mutate but not kill the host, then i would imagine that its not that deadly. Getting sick isn't what bothers me. It's the hospitalizations and deaths.

                      But to be sure, omicron looks to be crazy infectious. I've been full-time masking since late summer and I'd suggest we all do the same.
                      www.AbeFilms.com

                      All men are brothers

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                        Originally posted by Batutta View Post
                        ... escaping previous immunity and possibly five hundred percent more infectious than the OG strain.
                        Geez. I sure hope not. Can you share your source for this?
                        PortlandVideographer.com

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                          Originally posted by QuickHitRecord View Post

                          Geez. I sure hope not. Can you share your source for this?
                          A measured article about where knowledge of Omicron is at the moment--

                          https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03614-z
                          "Money doesn't make films...You just do it and take the initiative." - Werner Herzog

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by Batutta View Post
                            This pandemic is really starting to wear on me, and I know I'm not the only one. While I understood quite a while ago that we'd be living with Covid forever, actually living it is something else. I've been doing a deep dive on this latest variant, and it looks real bad folks, escaping previous immunity and possibly five hundred percent more infectious than the OG strain. Delta was only 70 percent more infectious. Early reporting suggests it has milder symptoms but most epidemiologists say there isn't enough data to make a conclusion there. Even if it is, it's so easily spread it's going to overwhelm the hospitals, impact supply chains, etc. And then who knows how this variant will mutate further? I don't see a return to normal in sight. Only real hope is that the targeted therapeutic drugs coming soon are safe and effective. I'm sure I'll get some pushback here, but I just wanted to give folks a heads up. We'll soon find out how bad it's going to be.
                            Yup. Agree 100%.

                            I have shoots on four continents lined up for January and February, but have a feeling we're going to be shut down again. Hey ho...
                            "There is nothing permanent except change."
                            Heraclitus

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                              Well, we are out of lock down in Melbourne, Aus now. Jan Feb for me is always shooting for internationals. Sadly...

                              The irony is if I was just doing local stuff and focused on that the last few years, I'd be busy all of Jan / Feb. Covid, the gift that keeps on giving.
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                                I have friends and relatives in Melbourne. They've not been happy with Andrews. To put it mildly. But, with the summer season, it should mean lower infection rates.

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