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Barry Diller believes the movie business is dead.

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    #16
    Can cinema and streaming coexist? Here is one person's opinion.

    https://amplify.nabshow.com/articles...LC1Fxj2_jPulj8

    Enjoy.

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      #17
      His analysis is terribly premature. One'd have to look at 18-24 months worth of releases to spot any trend and the summer of 2021 may not even be the starting point. The fall/Christmas of 2021 may be.

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        #18
        Originally posted by DLD View Post
        His analysis is terribly premature. One'd have to look at 18-24 months worth of releases to spot any trend and the summer of 2021 may not even be the starting point. The fall/Christmas of 2021 may be.
        This is the first time I've seen DLD ask for long-term data before predicting a trend anyways those black widow numbers for combined theatrical/streaming seem solid

        Relatedly- I saw that Dune is having a special IMAX premiere next week. I got so excited that I looked for tickets for a nearby showing. (And I've only been to the theater once since becoming a dad 6 years ago.) Turns out it's just for unseen footage release and a new trailer.

        But that's how you do it, Mr Diller. That's how you build anticipation for a cinema event. The showings in NYC were already sold out by the time I looked (not that I'd go to the theater just to watch a trailer)

        And yeah, I don't think we've even begun to see the start of the revenge spending of people returning to in-person events. I'm feeling the craving. (Sings) "I wanna be where the people are. I wanna see, wanna see 'em dancin'..."
        www.VideoAbe.com

        "In this world, Elwood, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant." -Harvey

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          #19
          There are two trends here - they could be countervailing ... or not - the return of the movie going public to the theaters and the continuously growing presence of the major streamers. My hunch is that even films made by the major streaming studios, Netflix aside, will get a shop window in the theaters once it's all settled down. They'll probably also get a separate PPV home box office for something like $50/showing. (big parties for movies like Dune would be similar what some folks do with the major boxing/UFC events .... I still remember Douglas - Holyfield from 1990).

          BTW, the just concluded Euros were all over the map in terms of attendance. Hungary, Russia and Romania had no limits. Italy, Netherlands and Denmark had partial. Germany was empty. England started as partial, but then - wink-wink - went to none, as its national team enjoyed its first run to the final of a major tournament in 55 years and the authorities were hoping for the home field advantage at Wembley.

          On the other hand, Copa America, held in Brazil, was played entirely to the empty stadiums.

          The Japan Olympics will be have no fans either. Assuming similar laws/rules apply to the movies - and, let's not forget, soccer matches were all taking place outdoors in large venues - the film industry is not out of the woods yet. And what emerges by the next summer could be vastly different from the Black Widow and F9.

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            #20
            Oh no Diller love of movies is dead because the poor big studios have lost their monopoly. Are we supposed to morn that we now can enjoy high quality content outside of the theaters? We are actually living in a golden era where content creators are free express wide diversity of ideas that the studios suppressed. It's not that I don't like a good movie now and then but I prefers high quality series where they have time to develop interesting characters.
            Last edited by Peter C.; 07-15-2021, 05:09 PM.

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              #21
              As of 10 days ago, the total domestic box office was down 81% from 2019.

              https://variety.com/2021/film/box-of...ic-1235010346/

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                #22
                I never understood why the financials of movies are so prominent in the news. Would you make a decision to buy a product or shop at a store based on company earnings?

                Without looking at the numbers I would say movie studios will still be profitable but their revenue will switch from box office to streaming and licensing agreements. The companies who will be hurt the most are the brick and mortar theaters. The demand for content isn’t decreasing but method of distribution has changed.

                Comment


                  #23
                  That one was from Variety, which is an industry paper. Otherwise, most major industries have decent coverage if you know where to look.

                  In terms of a particular film, its box office gross is usually a reflection of its quality. In the old USSR, the measuring statistics was "tickets sold".

                  And the brick&mortar theaters are up the Reddit creek.

                  Comment


                    #24
                    Originally posted by DLD View Post
                    In terms of a particular film, its box office gross is usually a reflection of its quality.
                    Guffaw
                    www.VideoAbe.com

                    "In this world, Elwood, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant." -Harvey

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                      #25
                      Originally posted by ahalpert View Post
                      Guffaw
                      Just because it's not your market ...

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                        #26
                        Originally posted by DLD View Post

                        Just because it's not your market ...
                        Well, I think that box office is sometimes a reflection of "quality" (and I reserve the right to be the sole arbiter of quality) but more often a reflection of advertising/hype success
                        www.VideoAbe.com

                        "In this world, Elwood, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant." -Harvey

                        Comment


                          #27
                          Originally posted by ahalpert View Post
                          Well, I think that box office is sometimes a reflection of "quality" (and I reserve the right to be the sole arbiter of quality) but more often a reflection of advertising/hype success
                          But all major releases spend huge funds on marketing and, as a rule, the same people are responsible for that marketing for years. Yet some movies click with audiences and others don't. I have no interest in glorified cartoons such as the F&F, Star Wars or Iron Man whatsoever but I also have to assume that those who do, can tell when a sequel runs out of steam creatively. And that will be reflected in the box office results and in future sequels ... or lack thereof.

                          PS. Marketing costs are a huge plus for the streamers because they advertise both a film and their service simultaneously and a giant portion of the budget is now addressed to a "captive audience", i.e., the already existing subscribers. Add the fact that a streamer keeps close to the 100% of the revenues (vs. 50-55% in the US, 40% in Europe and 33% in China in theatrical distribution) and it's easy to see why the new form is so appealing to the studios. In the pre-Covid era, this shift would have been gradual but 2020 was a hammer blow to theaters.

                          Comment


                            #28
                            Originally posted by DLD View Post

                            But all major releases spend huge funds on marketing and, as a rule, the same people are responsible for that marketing for years. Yet some movies click with audiences and others don't.
                            There's no validity to this point. Different movies with the same budget can have different quality. The same director can create a good movie and a bad movie. So why wouldn't different marketing campaigns produced by the same team with the same budget vary in their quality and success? So much of this comes down to inspiration, which really can't be bought.

                            Take Avatar - it was a totally inspired marketing campaign. Crappy movie, imo. (And I was excited for it. I saw it in IMAX 3D on opening night stoned with my friends.) But Cameron wrote the script in 2 weeks, apparently. It was a tired old story. Parts of the movie felt like watching someone else play a video game. 3D has never been that enjoyable or added that much to the movies, and his new process was no exception.

                            But as a marketing concept of the synthesis of his novel 3D technique (which also merited an upcharge by theaters and an effect that you couldn't get at home, an effect that you could tell people you saw)... The 3D technique with the story of taking over someone else's body and the idea of a new sci-fi universe... It all came together.

                            But the show Firefly (which got canceled in one season) was a WAY better story. It had far more compelling characters and a more interesting new sci-fi universe. Excellent directing. (The movie follow-up (Serenity) did not live up to the quality of the show.)
                            www.VideoAbe.com

                            "In this world, Elwood, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant." -Harvey

                            Comment


                              #29
                              Audiences suck. I'd sooner watch a movie at home. The cellphone craze destroyed theater-going.

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