Coronavirus Impact III

[Run&Gun]

Now that I can relate too haha. (I hesitate to even post this. Just joking. Gawd, everyone has to watch everything they say these days.
//self observation: "Wow. Aint my spelling getting gud?"

//Even the local newspapers are seemingly accepting improper spelling as 'good enough' these days. Thanks to 'Auto-Correct' which is always wrong.

This ties in with the “You do You” culture being discussed in that thread.

[ahalpert]

Yeah that irks me. One of the things I appreciate about the NYT is how good their copy editing is. Even the Guardian will have copy errors now and then.

[filmguy123]

here's a scary graph

Exponential growth sucks. Hopefully awareness, vaccines, changing weather, and natural herd immunity will curb this.

A lot of data is done per calendar year, such as leading causes of death in 2018 or 2019 (pre covid). On a Per Calendar Year measurement for 2020, COVID would be the 3rd leading cause of death as compared to a normal, pre-COVID 2019 year. Yikes. But, what will happen in March/April when we can compare a 12 month period. COVID might, unfortunately, be close to taking the number 1 spot for leading cause of death within a rolling 12 month period if it crosses 600k deaths.

The other interesting data point here is looking at the Flu this season. Empirical data is hard to find right now but we'll have it soon enough. However it is looking like Flu rates have been significantly suppressed, by a factor of perhaps 100x or more lower. I am curious to see official figures, but they are going to be historically low. Which goes to show (1) how contagious COVID is and (2) how bad things would be if we took of all protective measures. Our current half-baked measures are able to reduce the Flu that much, but leave COVID to wreak havoc where it's on a trajectory to compete with the top 2 causes of death?

Even if COVID data reporting on cases/deaths was somehow misreported and overestimated by an unprecedented factor of 2x (100%), it wouldn't alleviate concerns.

[mcgeedigital]

The reason the flu deaths are "down" is because hospitals don't get extra money for reporting flu deaths. Unlike covid.

[Liam Hall]

The reason the flu deaths are "down" is because hospitals don't get extra money for reporting flu deaths. Unlike covid.

Rubbish.

The reasons flu deaths are down are social distancing, mask wearing and washing hands. plus, there the sad fact many of those who would have died from flu in the current season have already died from COVID.

[filmguy123]

The reason the flu deaths are "down" is because hospitals don't get extra money for reporting flu deaths. Unlike covid.

Thanks for sharing this speculation, I am curious to learn more.

I understand hospitals receive more money for COVID, and for good reason - it is novel and expensive to treat, so this seems perfectly reasonable. However, is there any empirical evidence of mass fraud here? Or only anecdotal evidence? I've seen things that indicate that - due to human error, or sometimes financially motivated intentional fraud - we may have some level of error rate here on deaths/case reporting - but it may be closer to 1%. Maybe 5% at most. Beyond conjecture, is there anything to indicate the error rate would be higher than 1%-5%? As I mentioned, given how high cases/deaths are, even if COVID data reporting on cases/deaths was somehow misreported and overestimated by an unprecedented factor of 2x (100%), it wouldn't alleviate concerns. And of course, any data and concern here in the USA must be held in light of international data and dynamics, which is currently indicating similar trends with COVID's transmutability, death rate, and toll on health systems.

Second, this seems like a non-sequitur - but perhaps I am misunderstanding. Even if one were for a moment to assume mass COVID fraud, why would this encourage a hospital not to report Flu cases and Flu deaths? Is the speculation that en masse, hospitals across the nation/world are reporting Flu cases/deaths as COVID instead? If so, is there any evidence of this happening at scale?

[ahalpert]

I read that the same thing happened during the SARS epidemic of 2003. In China and Japan, seasonal flu cases plummeted because flu transmission was defeated by the same measures they took to stop SARS. (And other infectious diseases diminished as well.)

[Tim Sewell]

Yeah that irks me. One of the things I appreciate about the NYT is how good their copy editing is. Even the Guardian will have copy errors now and then.

Heh - 'now and then' is somewhat generous for the newspaper known widely as 'The Grauniad'!

[Tim Sewell]

The reason the flu deaths are "down" is because hospitals don't get extra money for reporting flu deaths. Unlike covid.

Nonsense on stilts. Flu rates are down worldwide, even in countries with proper healthcare systems where profit isn't the overriding motive.

[say_doyster]

It may or may not be nonsense here in the US. It is true that reporting a death as a covid death gets the care entity a reimbursement from the Feds. Last August I had a feeling the flu might be way down because (despite the news) most folks are in fact wearing masks and this is good for curtailing flu and other respiratory viruses besides covid. I even made a comment to a friend who was worried about getting the flu, that the flu may not appear at all (it has, but just barely in our area (central MD, USA). But I also have three direct contacts in medicine who have been warned not to discuss the way deaths (due to covid or dying with covid from something else) are reported. There have also been a number of similar reports on various media (how widespread, I certainly do not know). Why the relief bill last March gave money for covid deaths, I don't know, but in the true American spirit, I fear many are trying to capitalize on it and may be "fudging" the death numbers for profit. Not saying the numbers would be that much different - don't have an opinion on that yet, but the facts are what they are and part of the reason discussion on this topic can get so weird. Nothing is easy - I just hope the vaccine works!

B