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    #81
    Senior Member ahalpert's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Run&Gun View Post
    I'm hearing it both ways. Like you say, some of the big techies are snatching up available (office) space, because there is a glut of inventory right now and cheap, but also seeing some landlords jack up the rent on tenants that are still there.
    That flies in the face of the invisible hand though. I don't know commercial but everybody is getting discounts on their apartments in nyc nowadays


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    #82
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    The Asian countries didn't really need mandatory lockdowns in the way we did, because they have a culture amicable to the notion of voluntarily wearing masks, distancing, etc.

    Lockdowns are interesting because in ideally, the populace would simply adapt like many did in Japan, meaning that a lockdown's impact is minimized to an extent because it wouldn't foster additional behavior that wasn't already happening.

    Un-ideally, the populace responds like here in the States, going out of their way to ignore them, or do things like buy fake masks with holes in them. Which provide all of the hassle of a mask, and none of the benefits, but go figure? In such an event, a lockdown's impact is also minimized to an extent, because there is non-compliance.

    Although many misappropriate this and draw a non-sequitur, that is, that lockdown *behaviors* don't work... which is demonstrably false looking at countries like China, New Zealand, Australia, etc. This is why we ought not to look at the data in such a crass fashion.

    Although it hardly matters given the details of that study, which as ahalpert pointed out, is flawed.


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    #83
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    A good example of needing to look more closely at stories and data: I saw a few weeks back people sharing around this story about suicide rates in October in Japan killing more people there than COVID did all year. And of course, many people shaking their heads at the out of balance COVID restrictions and using it as anti-lockdown fodder.

    Dig deeper, though, and realize that Japan has notoriously high suicide rates amongst the highest in the world. They have been on a steady decline since the late 70s, and 2020 has been one of the lowest years (total figures don't appear to be published yet but it may be the 2nd lowest year of suicide since 1978, or maybe 3rd lowest). From January 2020 to November 2020, there was around 19,000 suicides, an increase of only 426 since 2019 - a minimally meaningful change that could be down to expected fluctuation.

    Look closer still and see that Japan was in lockdown in Q2 2020, and during lockdown, suicides were actually LOWER - the lowest they've ever been!! Japan then lifted lockdown restrictions in late May or early June. Suicide rates have gone up in the 2ND HALF of the year, without lockdown restrictions. This could be random, but if there is a reason, it may well be tied to other countries - such as the US - doing an abysmal job with COVID. Many people in Japan were complaining over the summer at the USA's behavior, essentially saying "we have worked so hard to stop COVID - and the USA's behavior impacts the whole world, and us. Please stop it." Japan is a small island country and relies heavily on imports/exports, and thus, the USA's poor respect for lockdowns, masks, distancing, etc. has negatively impacted the country as a whole and subsequently many individuals livelihoods.

    Point is... people were passing this around to use it as evidence of "lockdowns are evil" when the reality may ironically be that "actually, Japan was great with the lockdowns... suicide rates are up because YOU aren't following lockdowns". That's quite the Malcom Gladwell-esque plot twist there, but I think there's plenty of this going around in the way people quickly grab onto a headline to bolster what they already want to believe.


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    #84
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    Guess I shared to much.
    Last edited by lambert; 01-17-2021 at 09:53 AM.


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    #85
    Senior Member ahalpert's Avatar
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    I dont want to speak too soon, but it's possible that the US is coming down from its recent peak:

    Screenshot_20210118-092348_Chrome.jpg

    (At least until the new variants have their say.) In the chart, you can see a dip in reporting coinciding with Thanksgiving and christmas followed by steep rises. I dont think theres any reason why numbers would dip now, though. My guess is that the bump from xmas/nye has passed and now that people are holed up for winter, transmission may reduce.

    I saw an article recently that NY has just dipped back below 6% test positivity after going above it in December. The doctor they quoted attributed it to passing the holiday surge and said that positivity rate is an early indicator that will precede what happens with hospitalizations and deaths.


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    #86
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    Preliminary studies suggest 1 in 8 Covid 'survivors' die within six months.

    https://metro.co.uk/2021/01/18/one-i...days-13920415/
    "Money doesn't make films...You just do it and take the initiative." - Werner Herzog


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    #87
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    Very preliminary and a lot of ways to interpret that... metro also not the most reliable paper and will print a lot...

    BUT, will definitely keep an eye on that. I wouldn't be surprised. People keep likening it to a bad flu instead of a less intense SARS. I hope this isn't the case but from what we're seeing I do think we're going to be in for some unfortunate surprises as we continue to learn more about the long term repercussions in people. There are things we probably won't know for 10 years.


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    #88
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    Yikes: "18 family members get COVID-19 after holiday gathering in Pennsylvania"
    https://nypost.com/2021/01/19/18-fam...gathering/amp/

    Patients age from 1 to 62. 2 of them are in the hospital and will need oxygen when they come home. Crazy.

    And here's a scary graph:

    Screenshot_20210120-020807_Chrome.jpg

    Over 400,000 people have died from the coronavirus in the U.S. as of Tuesday, per Johns Hopkins data.

    Why it matters: It only took a little over a month for the U.S. to reach this mass casualty after 300,000 COVID deaths were reported last month. That's over 100,000 fatalities in 36 days.

    What they're saying: “One in every 820 people in our country have died during this pandemic — often alone, typically away from family and friends — comforted only by physicians and nurses in layers of PPE," the American Medical Association said in a statement.
    https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-de...0c5dd1ff8.html
    Last edited by ahalpert; 01-20-2021 at 12:11 AM.


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    #89
    Still "Senior Member" Gord.T's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lambert View Post
    Guess I shared to much.
    Now that I can relate too haha. (I hesitate to even post this. Just joking. Gawd, everyone has to watch everything they say these days.
    //self observation: "Wow. Aint my spelling getting gud?"

    //Even the local newspapers are seemingly accepting improper spelling as 'good enough' these days. Thanks to 'Auto-Correct' which is always wrong.
    Last edited by Gord.T; 01-20-2021 at 12:46 AM.
    "Remember To Dip the Right End of the Cigar in your $250.00 dollar glass of Brandy." -Doc Bernard.


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    #90
    Still "Senior Member" Gord.T's Avatar
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    I know. Just kidding around. Gawd forbid. hahaha. Carry on. I know! I know! I know!.
    "Remember To Dip the Right End of the Cigar in your $250.00 dollar glass of Brandy." -Doc Bernard.


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