Page 1 of 14 1234511 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 139
  1. Collapse Details
    When the dust settles... how will things be different?
    #1
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Location
    Portland, OR
    Posts
    4,681
    Default
    I am wondering your thoughts about the POST coronavirus impact. When things finally go back to “normal”.

    One concern is that it will be hard to find work as a smaller end-to-end business if people aren’t spending because they were so destabilized through this. Will work actually pick right back up, or will everyone have scaled back for a while? Wondering if post COVID business expenditures will be cut for a while following this...

    One thought is it competition will thin out? This can be sort of a pruning moment... with an influx of young creatives living month to month, any small businesses or freelancers may be forced to close shop or pursue a more stable line of income. This could thin out competition by clearing out a number of folks. On the other hand, I suppose if it results in cheaper gear and more people trying to hustle as a result of unemployment it could also cause an influx?

    Will culture be different or will life just resume? Will the hand shake disappear, grocery and food delivery services become more of the norm, traffic decrease as people stay at home? Will we will all start wearing masks on planes like is more common in Asia? Will people finally stop showing up to offices sick and will airlines create better policies to discourage flying while ill? Or 6-12 months later will we have all forgotten and life returns to as was?

    Would love to hear thoughts and perspectives... especially as pertains to work prospects following this.


    Reply With Quote
     

  2. Collapse Details
    #2
    Senior Member Liam Hall's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Location
    Worldwide
    Posts
    3,133
    Default
    I reckon it will be a long time before things are remotely back to normal. I think sports will be played in near-empty stadiums for at least a year, wearing masks will become the norm in towns and cities. I have no idea how they will solve public transport.

    As for our business, I've already noticed fees are down. I've been offered one job at 25% and one at 40% of my usual fee to shoot a couple of jobs. My clients will be struggling, their clients will be struggling and freelancers will take a big hit. The gaming and online porn sectors are the only ones doing well...

    I'm hoping people will be so bored of looking at crappy webcam/zoom/skype/faceTime rubbish that there will be a rush to get crews out there shooting fresh quality content, but I fear the user-generated sh!te will remain.
    New Website: www.liamhall.net
    TWITTER: @FilmLiam
    INSTAGRAM: @picsbyliam


    Reply With Quote
     

  3. Collapse Details
    #3
    Senior Member ahalpert's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    NYC
    Posts
    862
    Default
    There will be some pent-up demand that will come back. Some of my shoots that were postponed will be rescheduled as soon as safely and legally possible (summer or fall, I think is the goal).

    There is going to be a huge pent-up demand for new movies/TV as soon as crews can safely roll. I just don't know if it will be truly safe before we have a vaccine. So much of the business outlook depends on what happens with the virus and if there are effective drug therapies discovered.

    But businesses overall are taking a huge hit. Advertising revenues are way down, probably because nobody wants to advertise when consumption is down due to both the lockdown and also lost consumer incomes. A sinking tide lowers all boats. And it's going to take much longer for the economy to get up to speed than it took to shut it down. So there will be less business in general in the near-future, unfortunately. And some industries will suffer more than others until we have a vaccine that makes life totally safe. I imagine that restaurants and movie theaters, for example, will do less business even after the lockdown is lifted. So, how much your personal video business is affected will depend on what industries you work with. If you have medical clients, you could be working more than usual RIGHT NOW.

    I shot a job 2 days ago in Manhattan (my 1st since the lockdown) for my regular rate. But it's possible that in better times, the client would have hired a more expensive DP or a larger crew. We all wore masks and gloves and the producer checked with everyone on their health and quarantine status beforehand. My producer runs his own small company and also works at an agency. He said he has clients coming to him who want agency-quality work but don't want to pay agency prices. I think that was a pre-virus trend but may only accelerate now. So, the downturn could actually benefit low- and mid-tier production companies. I'm not convinced that the herd will be thinned, especially since there's not much alternative work right now.

    And, for example, in the wedding business, I imagine there will be somewhat fewer people getting married in the near-term. Some couples who do get married may skip the pro video, some may hire a cheaper videographer than they would have or a smaller package, some may skip the tip, and couples who have not had their employment affected may continue with their original plan. Livestreaming the ceremony and toasts may become more popular and provide a fee for the videographer. So, I think the downturn will be impactful but not apocalyptic. There may actually be additional incentive for the couple to get a pro video if elderly and distant relatives can't attend. (And the money they save on travel/accommodations could finance it, too.)

    I think that after a vaccine is distributed, life will largely return to normal and economic growth will be the only constraint on business. In 2.5 years, this will all be a bad memory. (Vaccine distributed within 2 years, experience becoming a memory thereafter.)
    Last edited by ahalpert; 04-16-2020 at 04:14 AM.


    Reply With Quote
     

  4. Collapse Details
    #4
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Posts
    3,766
    Default
    I can not see a lot of positives. I do think crewed produced content like series and movies will be "normal" once production is started up full steam again. How long until that happen is a guess right now.

    I shoot a lot of events with audiences. While demand will persist, I am struggling to see the implementation of crowds in the next year or two. Overall, I think the consumer is going to be a little more timid than before the crisis. That is never good for any business.

    As a society we may also keep some of these new habits. One of them being getting by with lower quality. This has been the case with every downturn as companies are forced to let workers go or push through without the recommended resources. When they get to the finish line and realize how much less it costs to operate this way, bells start ringing. Not good for our largely discretionary industry.

    Streaming might be more important but the tools available to the consumer get better and better all of the time. I am trying to play in that sandbox and I am just not seeing the margins in the future. Just seems like chasing something that is not quite there. Broadcast quality with a smartphone budget...


    Reply With Quote
     

  5. Collapse Details
    #5
    Senior Member ahalpert's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    NYC
    Posts
    862
    Default
    Quote Originally Posted by Bassman2003 View Post
    Streaming might be more important but the tools available to the consumer get better and better all of the time. I am trying to play in that sandbox and I am just not seeing the margins in the future. Just seems like chasing something that is not quite there. Broadcast quality with a smartphone budget...
    Can you elaborate on playing in that sandbox and not seeing the margins? You're trying to provide cost-effective streaming service and the budgets are too low to be worthwhile? What about lighting? Dont people still want good lighting? Though I guess for live audience stuff they probably use provided theater lights.


    Reply With Quote
     

  6. Collapse Details
    #6
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
    Posts
    6,587
    Default
    As soon as the mask supply finds every household, things will resume and progress to the new normal, which will then return to the old normal in a year or two.


    Reply With Quote
     

  7. Collapse Details
    #7
    Senior Member ahalpert's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    NYC
    Posts
    862
    Default
    Quote Originally Posted by DLD View Post
    As soon as the mask supply finds every household, things will resume and progress to the new normal, which will then return to the old normal in a year or two.
    I doubt this is true because they still have lockdowns in countries where they have masks. But maybe I'm too pessimistic or Americans are less risk-averse.


    Reply With Quote
     

  8. Collapse Details
    #8
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Posts
    3,766
    Default
    Quote Originally Posted by ahalpert View Post
    Can you elaborate on playing in that sandbox and not seeing the margins? You're trying to provide cost-effective streaming service and the budgets are too low to be worthwhile? What about lighting? Dont people still want good lighting? Though I guess for live audience stuff they probably use provided theater lights.
    I am trying to build up a kit that can go out and provide a streaming service. In putting together the kit, I have come to realize that there is a quality/reliability ceiling unless you spend up for better equipment and more people on the gig. Remember, for me to be there in the first place, I need the "video" rates to be met first, then streaming should be a charge on top of that right? I am just not seeing how those two come together without lowering something. By operating as a one man band, I either choose to focus on the stream or focus on the video work. We all know how that is going to end up! Maybe with a bunch of POV shots and one manned camera right by the streaming setup but...

    I have streamed a few classical music concerts with a client that wants to transition to offer streaming. The last concert I did for them I focussed more on the stream and it still cut out and needed attention. So my overall point is - a lot of folks are going to want pro results if they pay you anything but there will be a low cost tilt as "I can stream from my phone..." Maybe for produced things in a controlled environment with house internet and little motion, but for a broad offering, I am just seeing pain and strife from this perspective.


    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful.
    Reply With Quote
     

  9. Collapse Details
    #9
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
    Posts
    6,587
    Default
    Quote Originally Posted by ahalpert View Post
    I doubt this is true because they still have lockdowns in countries where they have masks. But maybe I'm too pessimistic or Americans are less risk-averse.
    It's aversion to other things. But then the discussion would drift onto other things.

    PS. As I'd noted here before, I am pro masks, especially for those stuck on subways, buses, offices and retail outlets. Having the necessary precautions can save a lot of lives in any flu season. The US was unprepared for this, despite many warnings.


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
    Reply With Quote
     

  10. Collapse Details
    #10
    Senior Member puredrifting's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Los Angeles, Ca.
    Posts
    10,634
    Default
    Quote Originally Posted by Bassman2003 View Post
    I am trying to build up a kit that can go out and provide a streaming service. In putting together the kit, I have come to realize that there is a quality/reliability ceiling unless you spend up for better equipment and more people on the gig. Remember, for me to be there in the first place, I need the "video" rates to be met first, then streaming should be a charge on top of that right? I am just not seeing how those two come together without lowering something. By operating as a one man band, I either choose to focus on the stream or focus on the video work. We all know how that is going to end up! Maybe with a bunch of POV shots and one manned camera right by the streaming setup but...

    I have streamed a few classical music concerts with a client that wants to transition to offer streaming. The last concert I did for them I focussed more on the stream and it still cut out and needed attention. So my overall point is - a lot of folks are going to want pro results if they pay you anything but there will be a low cost tilt as "I can stream from my phone..." Maybe for produced things in a controlled environment with house internet and little motion, but for a broad offering, I am just seeing pain and strife from this perspective.
    For those flocking to streaming, I believe that we are already at the point where selling "streaming" will be like selling HD video in 2004. Big deal, EVERYONE can stream and the tools and technology are getting cheaper, better quality and more automated by the month. The streaming partner I have owns a $20k Live Stream Studio setup. The new BMD ATEM Mini Pro has 85% of the capability of our system at $595.00. This product and several others that have recently been introduced prove that soon, literally anyone will be able to setup and configure multi camera, fairly effective live streaming. I agree with you in regards that streaming is the wild west. We almost always have issues with the stream. If you're an amateur streaming a phone or camera to FB Live or Zoom, who cares if you have issues? If you are a professional that clients have paid thousands of dollars to, this can be a huge issue. Fortunately my partner in the streaming company is an audio and computer engineer, a Ph.D. and a very smart guy when it comes to problem solving and troubleshooting. Those less gifted in the computer arts, you are usually at the mercy of IT functions that are out of your control. And streaming clients get pissed if the stream doesn't work well and guess who gets blamed when 90% of the time, the crappy or non functioning stream is out of your control.

    From a creative and marketing standpoint, if anyone can stream and almost anyone can do multi-camera live streaming, how long do you think selling that capability as a viable business plan will last? Perhaps a few more months? I am being innundated all over social media by video production companies and OMBs who now "offer live streaming". So as a service, it's already highly commoditized and will continue to be, which means that budgets will drop through the floor and even from last year, streaming budgets in general have been falling considerably over 2017-2018. I would suggest that for any of us want to include live streaming as a viable business, you'd better be bringing a lot more to the market than live streaming, multi camera capability. You'd better have a game plan that differentiates your offering from all of the bottom feeders because the market, just in the past few months has already veered toward bottom feeders.

    We're doing the opposite with my partner, we are going upscale, way upscale, just signed an agreement with a multi million dollar trade show company that is converting a significant portion of their business for their clients to live streaming since basically all or most trade shows are a dead issue for 2020. This entity will pursue Fortune 500 exhibitors who normally spend in the hundreds of thousands to the millions for just one trade show appearance. We are assembling an entire marketing team, production crews, social media team specialist, etc. We have something viable to offer these type clients as far as live stream/virtual trade show and target brand affiliation content that is essentially high production value custom television, along with targeted marketing and social media support. Don't know if it will be successful but it seems a lot more realistic than scrapping for crumbs at the low end of what "live streaming" is rapidly becoming, a commodity.

    Also, IMHO, clients for live streaming will spend commensurate with revenue that can be generated, either directly or indirectly from the spend. If a clients idea for live streaming doesn't include monetizing it, how does the live streaming align with their other expenditures that live streaming is replacing or supplementing? It's a business decision, not a creative decision for most clients. Just my .02
    It's a business first and a creative outlet second.
    G.A.S. destroys lives. Stop buying gear that doesn't make you money.


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
    Reply With Quote
     

Page 1 of 14 1234511 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •