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    Senior Member ahalpert's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mcbob View Post
    I guess that shows even if you have a high infection rate in a given state with a lot of space, fresh air, and an outdoor culture, you're better off than a tightly-packed indoor sedentary culture (where they may or may not murderously place covid patients into nursing homes). Looks like the Dakotas have some of the highest cases-per-million in the nation, yet some of the lowest fatalities and least onerous lockdowns.

    Consider... the state of Connecticut has a similar sized population to Iowa, or twice the population of ND/SD combined. It has half the infection rate per million of either IA or ND+SD, yet 3-4x the deaths per million of any of those states and nearly twice the unemployment rate (as of August). data per worldometers and BLS.org
    One thing to consider with those numbers is that places that had outbreaks early on had worse fatality rates due to lesser understanding of the disease and fewer available therapeutics. Additionally, a hotspot that has flared recently will see a rising death toll a couple weeks after the caseload rises.

    And regarding unemployment - some types of employment are less vulnerable to pandemic interruptions. If you rely on tourism, you're screwed. If you have a lot of entertainment venues, you're screwed. If you have a lot of retail and eateries that serve office buildings whose workers now work from home, you're screwed. If you have oil rigs and corn fields, you may not be screwed.

    Regardism tourism:

    5-12-18-e1526420160529.jpg


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    California and North Dakota have the same death rate; 1/3rd that of Connecticut. The statistics are interesting and befuddling. https://www.statista.com/statistics/...s-us-by-state/


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    Senior Member ahalpert's Avatar
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    There are so many variables. the explanation could simply be that they received different strains of covid. I think that one is deadlier than the other. The median age in Connecticut is also 5 years higher than north dakota or california


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    Very hard to draw a lot of conclusions at this point. I don’t know why Indianapolis is harder hit than Fort Wayne. Same state 100 miles separating them. 300k vs a million. The bars in one have stayed open Continuously in FW since May the other mostly closed down. Maybe one has larger family’s that are more insular ( large catholic, Amish populations). Commercial space is cheaper leading to less dense space (many of the bars and restaurants I still frequent have large indoor and outdoor areas). Until recently I ate out or stopped in a bar three times a week since June.


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    Take a look at the patterns, especially look at Idaho and Wisconsin vs neighboring areas at 0:45. Also look in the Dakotas and see green surrounded by red. Clearly, some of the discontinuity has to do with testing and reporting.


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    IMO, accurate record-keeping of a virus is impossible.

    The graph on the last page is pretty (the AI), but its data is coming from somewhere.

    And I know the source includes some of the brightest minds in the world, but they can't do it all by themselves.

    Numbers are coming from multiple places and consider that the task of testing, verifying, and trusting those results for dozens, hundreds and eventually (maybe) 330 million people is a big one.


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    The U.S. has passed the 8-million mark for known infections.


    As coronavirus cases across the United States climb toward a third peak, the country surpassed a total of eight million total known cases on Thursday afternoon, according to a New York Times database.

    Epidemiologists warned of a new, worrisome phase as 17 states are seeing surges unlike anything they experienced earlier in the pandemic. States including Alaska, Minnesota, Montana and Wisconsin reported more new cases during the seven-day stretch that ended on Wednesday than in any other week since the virus arrived in the country.

    Reports of new cases are trending upward in 41 states over the last two weeks, while nine states are holding case numbers roughly steady. No state in the country is seeing a sustained decline.

    Many of the 17 states seeing more new cases than ever — located mostly in the Midwest or in the Mountain West — had relatively few cases until recently. But cases are now steadily climbing. Intensive care unit beds in hospitals are few and far between in some rural communities, experts said, raising concerns about crowded facilities.

    “What’s happening in the Upper Midwest is just a harbinger of things to come in the rest of the country,” said Michael Osterholm, an infectious-diseases expert at the University of Minnesota.

    New cases per day in the United States
    April 10
    31,709
    new cases
    (7-day avg.)


    July 19
    66,690


    Oct. 13
    52,156


    Already, signs of the uptick are appearing beyond the nation’s middle. In the Northeast, where cases have been relatively low since a spring surge, reports of new infections have started ticking upward again. In the South, where infections spiked this summer, the picture varies from state to state, with sustained progress in Florida and Georgia but worrisome trends in Arkansas and Kentucky.

    The number of cases alone is not a full measure of the nation’s outbreak — it is difficult to compare the current numbers with earlier points in the U.S. outbreak when testing was less widespread — and deaths from the virus have been relatively flat in recent weeks, with an average of about 700 per day. But “we are headed in the wrong direction,” said Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University.

    High levels of infection in colleges and universities, Dr. Osterholm said, are serving as one source of the spread. Transmission also has been prevalent at events such as funerals, family barbecues and birthday parties, he said, adding that the comeback of sporting events and dining has also added to the spread this fall.

    “Pandemic fatigue has clearly set in for large segments of the population,” he said. “This is not even an uptick, this is a major surge of cases that is happening.”

    He added, “It’s only going to get worse, we have to be prepared for that.”

    Even as cases increased, President Trump continued to downplay the resurgence of this virus this fall during an appearance on Fox Business on Thursday morning. He added he did not support strictest restrictions by local officials to limit its spread. “We’re not doing any more lockdowns, we’re doing fine,” he said.

    But Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, also warned on Thursday morning that the increase in cases across multiple regions of the country could have dire consequences over the coming months.

    “The issue is that as we enter, as we are now, the cooler season of the fall, and ultimately the coldest season of the winter, you don’t want to be in that compromised position where your baseline daily infection is high, and you’re increasing as opposed to going in the other direction,” he said on “Good Morning America.” “So we’ve really got to double down on the fundamental public health measures that we talk about every single day, because they can make a difference.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10...own-infections


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    Northern states, with people spending more time indoors on the arrival of the colder weather. A pretty typical pattern for an airborne disease.


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    Quote Originally Posted by DLD View Post
    Northern states, with people spending more time indoors on the arrival of the colder weather. A pretty typical pattern for an airborne disease.
    Not exactly. The map is below. What's notable about Wisconsin is that all the measures introduced in Arizona that successfully curbed the outbreak there have been blocked by the Wisconsin judiciary. As a result, Wisconsin is now in the worst shape in the country.

    Screenshot_20201016-010204_Chrome.jpg


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    I'm familiar with Wisconsin, being an ex-resident and all.


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