Coronavirus Impact II

[ahalpert]

New York Statistics

Attachment 140098

Bay Area Statistics - the second graph is most enlightening. http://www.bayareaeconomy.org/bay-ar...th-is-slowing/

I wonder how much of that net domestic migration is just going to the suburbs. That's where my family would be on the chart (domestic migration) but now we're just outside the city

[Barry_Green]

Then why did SF have such low housing inventory?

That's for someone else to figure out. I'm just reporting what we're seeing actually happen.

bay area immigration.jpg

The chart Paul F's article linked to says it all. Look at the net domestic immigration. Then look at the same thing in the NY chart. They're basically telling the exact same story -- and this data is over the course of many years, predating Coronavirus.

[Barry_Green]

I wonder how much of that net domestic migration is just going to the suburbs.

Again, look at the U-Haul prices. They charge you a fortune to take a truck out of the area, and they practically give the truck away in order for you to bring one in from outside the area. They wouldn't do that if their trucks were staying local.

[ahalpert]

Again, look at the U-Haul prices. They charge you a fortune to take a truck out of the area, and they practically give the truck away in order for you to bring one in from outside the area. They wouldn't do that if their trucks were staying local.

Interesting. I wonder if it's a wave of millennials who went to the go-go cities after college and then passed on to places that were easier to live in. I know so many people who did that

[ahalpert]

NYT is reporting that the threshold for herd immunity may be lower than previously thought, though nothing is certain:

Assuming the virus ferrets out the most outgoing and most susceptible in the first wave, immunity following a wave of infection is distributed more efficiently than with a vaccination campaign that seeks to protect everyone, said Tom Britton, a mathematician at Stockholm University.

His model puts the threshold for herd immunity at 43 percent — that is, the virus cannot hang on in a community after that percentage of residents has been infected and recovered.

Still, that means many residents of the community will have been sickened or have died, a high price to pay for herd immunity. And experts like Dr. Hanage cautioned that even a community that may have reached herd immunity cannot afford to be complacent.

The virus may still flare up here and there, even if its overall spread is stymied. It’s also unclear how long someone who has recovered may be immune, and for how long...

It is not certain that any community in the world has enough residents now immune to the virus to resist a second wave.

But in parts of New York, London and Mumbai, for example, it is not inconceivable that there is already substantial immunity to the coronavirus, scientists said.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/h...gtype=Homepage

[NorBro]

Interesting. I wonder if it's a wave of millennials who went to the go-go cities after college and then passed on to places that were easier to live in. I know so many people who did that

Yes, it was because there was always a tremendous sense of accomplishment in landing a corporate job in the Big Apple. It's a dream for many. (And a great chunk of the traffic moving through the city consists of people from NJ, Connecticut and Long Island commuting to those jobs.)

Generation Z thinks differently and with the pandemic creating more opportunities from home, which was a long time coming as the 9-5 office life is a very outdated practice for many jobs, the city will undoubtedly lose more of its spark.

NYC is amazing and there is nothing like it and never will be, but there is only so much eating, shopping, sightseeing and Central Park jogging that you can do. You truly have to be wired a certain way to live there long-term as it is a grind like no other.

Plus, to really experience the city, you need $$$.

[JPNola]

"If the high rent wasn't enough to make someone want to move out to greener pastures, the peaceful protests against the killing of George Floyd turned into something more sinister. There are hard-to-watch videos all over Twitter showing retail stores that have been broken into with groups of people stealing their merchandise. Buildings have been set ablaze and innocent bystanders and business owners have been preyed upon with senseless violence. Times Square, the epicenter of tourism for New York, looked as if it was attacked by enemy forces. Rioters blew up an ATM machine in Philadelphia. A man, in strong physical shape, attempted to ward off looters from his shop. He was met with a swarm of violent people pummeling him. The mayors and governors of cities across the nation appeared clueless and inept in managing the crisis and their forsaken citizens who they took an oath to protect. It's now life-threatening to venture outdoors at night."

[ahalpert]

. Times Square, the epicenter of tourism for New York, looked as if it was attacked by enemy forces.

FWIW every time I've been into Manhattan since George Floyd, it's looked just as peaceful and wealthy as ever. I guarantee you that no one is leaving because of protests or looting. From what I read, people are leaving for more square footage and home swimming pools now that they're stuck at home. Or they lost their job and moved back home with relatives

[Run&Gun]

https://local.theonion.com/8-4-milli...ity-1819571723

"I always had this perverted sense of pride because I was managing to scrape by here," said Brooklyn resident Andrew McQuade, who, after watching two subway rats gnawing on a third bloody rat carcass, finally determined that New York City was a giant sprawling cancer. "Well, **** that. I don't need to pay $2,000 a month to share a doghouse-sized apartment with some random Craigslist dip**** to prove my worth. I want to live like a ******* human being."

"This place sucks," Manhattan resident Woody Allen, 74, told reporters. "It just ****ing sucks."

Before departing by private helicopter, Mayor Michael Bloomberg spoke with members of the media to address the situation.

"You know what the greatest city in the world is?" Bloomberg asked reporters. "Scottsdale, Arizona. It's clean, it's not too big, it's got a couple streets with shops and restaurants, and the people there aren't ****ing insane. This place is ****ing insane. And by the way, that's not a reason to like it. Anyone who says that is a delusional dirtbag."

[Paul F]

Ahh, the good life.