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    Senior Member ahalpert's Avatar
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    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/23/h...id-deaths.html

    A study from IHME (whose epidemiological forecasts the White House relies upon) predicts that 95% mask use would save 130,000 lives this winter and that the death toll in the US may reach 500,000 by next March on our current trajectory


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    Check out the graphic in this WaPo article -- this is as compelling evidence of the effect of mask use as anyone could ask for.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...a-chart-masks/

    It's a bit weird to me that the dose of virus you are exposed to has a big role in determining your health outcome, but it's pretty undeniable at this point. Being in NYC in the early part of the year was really as bad as it gets -- nobody wearing masks because they didn't know the virus was a thing yet, densely packed together, and at that stage the hospitals had little idea of what to do, and were causing more harm than good by putting people on ventilators. So, of course death rates were higher at that point than anytime or probably anywhere afterwards.


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    Quote Originally Posted by ahalpert View Post
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/23/h...id-deaths.html

    A study from IHME (whose epidemiological forecasts the White House relies upon) predicts that 95% mask use would save 130,000 lives this winter and that the death toll in the US may reach 500,000 by next March on our current trajectory
    The most concerning part of that death toll projection it assumes that states reimpose social distancing requirements. If states continue to lift restrictions the article quotes the researchers projecting that deaths could exceed one million.

    As the governor of Texas said earlier this year, we can't have a functioning society when hospitals are overflowing with critically ill patients. If the hospitals are full, more of those who are turned away will die because doctors won't be able to administer the IV therapeutics that might have otherwise saved their lives.

    I'd like to be optimistic that Americans will come together do what is necessary to bring this pandemic to heel like like we did with polio, small pox and tuberculosis.

    If many states continue to roll back the mandates in place, the team found, the number of deaths by Feb. 28 could top one million, with one-third occurring in California, Florida and Pennsylvania.

    More plausibly, states might reinstate distancing mandates when daily deaths reach a threshold of eight deaths per million. That would result in 511,373 deaths by the end of February 2021, according to the model.


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    Senior Member ahalpert's Avatar
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    "Hospital administrators in Utah have sent a grim warning to Gov. Gary Herbert that they will soon be forced to ration access to their rapidly filling intensive-care units, and requested approval for criteria to decide which patients should get priority, The Salt Lake Tribune reported."

    https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/10/...navirus-cases/


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    A new study by economists at the University of Kansas has found that counties in the state where residents are obliged to wear masks in public have seen about half as many new coronavirus infections as counties that do not have a mask mandate in force.

    The study by the university’s Institute for Policy & Social Research is part of a countrywide trend, experts said. Localities that impose mask mandates often see fewer cases, fewer hospitalizations, fewer deaths or lower test-positivity rates than nearby localities that do not.

    The same trend has been seen in Alabama, Kansas, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Texas, according to a report from Prevent Pandemics, a nonprofit group advocating pandemic-fighting measures.
    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10...-a-study-finds
    www.VideoAbe.com

    "Captain, the most elementary and valuable statement in science, the beginning of wisdom, is 'I do not know.'" - Lt. Cmdr. Data


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    Increasingly, it looks like this will be with us forever--

    https://theconversation.com/covid-19...t-means-146435
    Last edited by Batutta; 11-02-2020 at 08:42 AM.
    "Money doesn't make films...You just do it and take the initiative." - Werner Herzog


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    IMO, there's no doubt about it.


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    Sweden has started giving stricter recommendations against social density as cases in the country sharply rise: https://www.businessinsider.com/swed...-surge-2020-11

    These are still just guidelines and not laws. (Although supposedly the Swedes are generally very compliant.)

    But it illustrates how no society can withstand the unchecked exponential spread of the virus, even though the fatality rate has come down thanks to better treatments.

    I think that covid will become endemic and may eventually be no more dangerous than a cold. But right now we need a vaccine and fast.

    (Oh btw I think that Russia has instituted a nationwide mask mandate even though supposedly they have a vaccine that they have been giving out widely for weeks now.)


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    Longterm COVID-19 complications appear to be occurring due to lung tissue getting almost completely scarred: https://www.reuters.com/article/heal...-idUSKBN27K00X

    “It could very well be envisaged that one of the reasons why there are cases of long COVID is because there is vast destruction of lung (tissue). ... Even if someone recovers from COVID, the damage that is done could be massive.”


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    Too funny, both my live streaming partner Gregg and me each got shots in this Aurora, Colorado news story from CBS last week.
    The conference we were live streaming was on the bleeding edge of Covid screening and air filtration technology.
    https://denver.cbslocal.com/2020/10/...sense-scanner/
    It's a business first and a creative outlet second.
    G.A.S. destroys lives. Stop buying gear that doesn't make you money.


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