Page 80 of 112 FirstFirst ... 307076777879808182838490 ... LastLast
Results 791 to 800 of 1111
  1. Collapse Details
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Charlottesville, va
    Posts
    2,636
    Default
    Quote Originally Posted by mcgeedigital View Post
    https://imprimis.hillsdale.edu/sensi...-GZKMX8QIrGbqo

    Maybe Sweden had it right after all.
    IMHO there's no 'maybe' about it.

    The novel approach of massive panic-driven, evidence-disregarding shutdowns, fostered by the deliberate coverup and subsequent misinformation from China, will go down as one of the greatest mistakes of the century... or at least I sincerely HOPE we won't make bigger mistakes.
    Pudgy bearded camera guy
    http://mcbob.tv


     

  2. Collapse Details
    Default
    Quote Originally Posted by mcgeedigital View Post
    https://imprimis.hillsdale.edu/sensi...-GZKMX8QIrGbqo

    Maybe Sweden had it right after all.
    These are the kinds of discussions we need to be having. We can't just say lock downs and masks, and call it a day.


     

  3. Collapse Details
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Charlottesville, va
    Posts
    2,636
    Default
    Quote Originally Posted by Batutta View Post
    Holy crap! This is alarming. Hopefully this new strain doesn't show up elsewhere, although if I were a betting man, I'd say it most likely will, either through spread or another spontaneous mutation. If it gets to the US its going to be even more catastrophic.

    EDIT: Just read more about it, seems its been around since September and many think its responsible for the newest spikes. But they think they mutation makes it more susceptible to a vaccine.
    The general trend with virii and similar pathogens is that they mutate to become more infectious, but less deadly. Survival of the fittest, they can't reproduce without a host, after all, and if your host dies, well, phhbtbtbtbt.

    This trend is often amplified in pathogens that were already significantly mutated... say, in a lab or something.
    Pudgy bearded camera guy
    http://mcbob.tv


     

  4. Collapse Details
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Charlottesville, va
    Posts
    2,636
    Default
    Quote Originally Posted by James0b57 View Post
    These are the kinds of discussions we need to be having. We can't just say lock downs and masks, and call it a day.
    Pretty sure this is a discussion that roughly half the country was trying to have for seven months while the other half were calling them selfish callous science-denying racist boomer killers
    Pudgy bearded camera guy
    http://mcbob.tv


     

  5. Collapse Details
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    West of the Pecos
    Posts
    2,574
    Default
    Finally, someone writing about being practical and not reactionary and the return on investment for the strategies we use. We were discussing this back in March. There wasn't enough data back then to have strategies to do what is right for the greater good. I find it disappointing that it has taken this long to bring out such discussion.


     

  6. Collapse Details
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Location
    Portland, OR
    Posts
    4,797
    Default
    I'm having a hard time with this one, friends. Help me understand. I read this, and started looking into the counter side:

    https://www.infectioncontroltoday.co...on-declaration

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_...l_commentaries

    What gives? What am I missing? Besides all of this, I have a few points of confusion as to how this could be valid.

    A couple years ago we had a terribly bad flu year with around ~64k deaths in the US. Last year, we had ~32k deaths. This year, in 2020, we have had ~250k deaths. And that is from March to now, or only about 75% of the year. And in a year where the world has been under intense lockdown, distancing, masks, heavily restricted international and air travel, etc. That's hugely disproportionate to the flu. In fact, it's just disproportionate period. In 2019 here are the 4 US leading causes of death:

    Heart disease: 655,381
    Cancer: 599,274
    Accidents (unintentional injuries): 167,127
    Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 159,486

    That's in a non COVID year. In 75% of this year with all restrictions, COVID is the 3rd leading cause of death, and let's buckle up for the next 1.5 months. So, mortality rate percentages and calculations aside, it doesn't seem to jive with the hard figures here. That's a massive death toll and frankly we've just barely got cracking. I think we're going to see the worst of it in the next month. Even if we were to try and conjecture that 50% of deaths were somehow false reports, that's still a massive death toll given the circumstances. This doesn't add.

    I also can't breakdown the claims in this article. It talks about testing and finding that in one area in CA, there were 1000 confirmed covid cases, but then tests showed 50,000 people had the antibodies. So they're essentially saying "50 times as many people as reported have already had COVID" and calculating a new mortality rate off of that. Yet, we have 11.5 million cases in the US. If we are off by a factor of 50, that's 550+ million people - more than the population of the US. Essentially, if this reports math is to believed, everyone in the USA has already had Covid.

    Next problem I see, this article makes no explanation for practical issues we are seeing right now in the medical system. Here in Oregon, lockdowns started today. Hospitals are at 90% capacity. We've hardly been hit here in the state yet and our hospitals are already slammed. Look, even if no one dies, the idea of loading the medical system this high means people will die when they shouldn't because every bed will be full. As the article states, mortality rate is also a factor not of the disease but of the surrounding conditions such as medical care.

    A few other thoughts. A disease that is hardly contagious and has a death rate of 25% vs a disease that is extremely contagious with a death rate of 0.5%. Which is worse? The latter! Perhaps the 25% death rate disease reaches 100,000 people and 25,000 people die. The other reaches 7 billion people. That means 350 million people die, ie, the entire population of the US. It's a strange argument. They are essentially lowering the fatality rate by a factor of 15, but increasing the rate of injection by 50x. That is not a net win. It's a net loss. It's actually far worse.

    Besides, what we should really be measuring is the number of people who need or benefit greatly from hospitalization compared against our ability to hospitalize people. That is what causes the whole argument to crumble. Well, that, and the definition of the word "vulnerable". As soon as you realize that even people considered mildly overweight or Vitamin D deficient (hello, everyone in the PNW) fall in the category it sure changes things, doesn't it?

    Look. I am not saying this declaration is wrong. I don't know, who I am? I'm a filmmaker and I play with cameras and I'm a slight bit geeky (ok, I'm a nerd, you got me). Notwithstanding speaking over my pay grade, something about this declaration just doesn't make sense from what I am seeing. Am I alone? Can someone point out the flaw in my assessment here?

    EDIT: And, add: https://www.medpagetoday.com/infecti.../covid19/89204 -- maybe that says it all?
    Last edited by filmguy123; 11-18-2020 at 09:56 PM.


    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful.
     

  7. Collapse Details
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    West of the Pecos
    Posts
    2,574
    Default
    Yes, the data being presented to us is confusing. Data without analysis means nothing. We can all jump to wrong conclusions based upon the flood of random data available. What is needed is the sort of discussion in that paper. More and more of that type of discussion needs to be made, challenged, adjusted, analyzed, and modified in a continuous fashion to develop a sound strategy.


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
     

  8. Collapse Details
    Default
    Quote Originally Posted by mcbob View Post
    Pretty sure this is a discussion that roughly half the country was trying to have for seven months while the other half were calling them selfish callous science-denying racist boomer killers
    Yes, unfortunately for people in the US, the pandemic happened during an election year.


     

  9. Collapse Details
    Senior Member ahalpert's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    NYC
    Posts
    3,027
    Default
    I think it's difficult to make a cost/benefit analysis of the value of intervention without knowing how many people would die without intervention as well as if and how long it will take for an effective vaccine to arrive and end the pandemic medically.

    The White House believes, as do I, that the potential death toll was in the millions:

    Screenshot_20201119-004056_Chrome.jpg

    And now that we know that a 95% effective vaccine is just a few months away from widespread distribution, every infection that we prevent in the interim could be a life saved. We are not simply delaying the inevitable.

    We are the most technologically advanced civilization in human history, if not universal history. I'm not willing to go full lord of the flies without a fight.


     

  10. Collapse Details
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    West of the Pecos
    Posts
    2,574
    Default
    Well then, we should have done the most effective and economically viable thing in the first place; a full lockdown for 2-3 weeks. That would have saved the most lives. That didn't need any analysis.


     

Page 80 of 112 FirstFirst ... 307076777879808182838490 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •