Coronavirus Impact II

[DLD]

I think there are actually a lot of gay people who come to NYC to escape persecution...

Where are they escaping from, the 1960's USSR?

[Batutta]

I'll give you one example: after we moved to the suburbs, we realized that we dont see any gay couples walking around holding hands here. Which was a common sight in the city. I think there are actually a lot of gay people who come to NYC to escape persecution.

NYC is a place where you can do your own thing and people won't bother you.

The suburbs are a suffocating cauldron of mediocrity, a cultural vacuum that slowly drains your soul of life, inspiration and color until every ounce of artistic motivation dissolves into a flaccid, creative torpor that pulls you down like a comforting quicksand. Get out while you still can!

[ahalpert]

Where are they escaping from, the 1960's USSR?

There's a spectrum of persecution between gulags and total acceptance. There were still state bans on gay marriage until 2015. I read a story recently of a police officer who was repeatedly passed over for promotion and his superior officer told him if he wanted his career to advance, he would need to "tone down your gayness" (he received a $10 million settlement - https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews...%3fid=68907639)

Some communities in the US are more comfortable to live in for an LGBTQ person. NYC isn't the only one, but it's one of them

[DLD]

... Some communities in the US are more comfortable to live in for an LGBTQ person. NYC isn't the only one, but it's one of them

There's scarcely a city more accepting of LGBTQ than San Francisco. Yet ...

https://www.sfgate.com/living-in-sf/...0Z2xrgV40wYPvo

[ahalpert]

There's scarcely a city more accepting of LGBTQ than San Francisco. Yet ...

https://www.sfgate.com/living-in-sf/...0Z2xrgV40wYPvo

My point was just that places like NYC and San Francisco will bounce back from the pandemic because they are havens for alternative lifestyles. The exodus might even be good for SF in the long-term because people complain about how the city sucks now that artists have been priced out.

The article notes that housing inventory was exceptionally low there to begin with and how there's no place to eat out during the pandemic.

"The reason for this change is likely a combination of a few unprecedented factors that have collided this summer, resulting in a historic shift in the city.

The astronomical cost of owning a home in the San Francisco city limits — which has been sky high for over a decade now, since the second tech boom — had to break at some point, and the coronavirus seems to be the straw that broke the camel's back. The pandemic soon led to tech giants like Google, Facebook and Twitter rethinking what work looks like, as many have allowed employees to work remotely for the foreseeable future, and maybe forever.

This, combined with the fact that most entertainment venues, eateries and bars in the city have closed, has given many residents — particularly tech employees and transplants — little reason to stay, when more spacious, literally greener pastures beckon in (relatively) less costly regions in California such as Lake Tahoe or Palm Springs.

It should be noted that San Francisco had an unusually low inventory relative to other large cities prior to the pandemic. Historically, the ratio of homes for sale relative to total housing has been a quarter of New York's."

[DLD]

My point, plainly stated in my Market Watch post, was that there are other causes to the exodus from NYC, LA and SF and that these causes were glossed over in the article. I am sure, however, the municipalities, real estate agencies and moving companies have plenty of surveys to examine them. And I am sure most of them are not difficult to find online.

As to what will happen after the worse tide of the pandemic is over is an unknown.

[ahalpert]

Aha. I interpreted it as a slam against NYC. The thing is - the astronomical rents and insane crowding were already there and people continued to flock. Without a pandemic, there would have been no exodus which is why I think that guy predicting the demise of NYC is wrong, unless people are afraid there will be another pandemic or unless remote work becomes permanent. Personally, I would bet against both those scenarios.

[Barry_Green]

Without a pandemic, there would have been no exodus

I disagree utterly. The exodus has been underway for a long time.

For YEARS, people have been outright fleeing the Bay area. At one point, maybe three years ago, we tried to figure out a business opportunity because the disparity was so great, we tried to come up with a way to play the arbitrage. All you had to do was look at the U-Haul website. Look at the rates for driving a truck one-way from, say, Texas to San Francisco -- it was (at the time) like $700. Then look at the rates for driving that same truck from San Francisco to Texas -- it was (at the time) about $2,500! Seriously, this has been going on long before there was any pandemic. And it's being accelerated, rapidly, massively, by the pandemic, not because of the disease itself, but because the disease has revealed that people can successfully work from home. Wasn't it Facebook or Twitter who came out and announced that they were allowing ALL employees to work from home? I've got a relative in Houston who just landed a full-time, high-paying job at Amazon. 100% remote.

As DLD is alluding to, there are many other reasons people are getting out of the big cities. As to what happens when the pandemic is over is anyone's guess. As an investor, there is no way in Hell or anywhere else that I'd be wanting to invest in residential real estate in the downtown of a major city right now.

[Paul F]

New York Statistics

dcp-estimates-components-pop-change-nyc-county-0410-0718.jpg

Bay Area Statistics - the second graph is most enlightening. http://www.bayareaeconomy.org/bay-ar...th-is-slowing/

[ahalpert]

I disagree utterly. The exodus has been underway for a long time.

Then why did SF have such low housing inventory?

I don't know SF, I can only speak for NYC. What I've read about SF is that it's a total tech town. People there hate the high cost of living and the absence of anybody who doesn't work in tech. They've experienced a sort of gold rush influx of techies in the past 10 or so years. If people can work for tech companies without living in SF, it will totally change the city. But my guess is that prices will come down and people without as much money will replace the tech millionaires who leave. I dont think the same dynamics are at play in NYC, or at least not to the same degree.

I'm not expecting this amount of remote work to continue. Some people like having an office to go to. And I think it is more efficient to be in the same physical location for meetings etc. I like editing remotely but it's definitely more expedient to do it with a client.