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    Senior Member ahalpert's Avatar
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    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...cession-408911

    As governments release their final figures for the second quarter of the year, it’s become clear that, more than anything else, a country’s success or failure combating the pandemic is what is driving economic performance...

    Lockdown measures have taken a toll, which helps explain why parts of Europe and Asia performed far worse than the United States earlier this year. But the approach to reopening, including governments’ willingness to embrace measures like mask mandates, are more predictive of a country’s economic trajectory — whether that be a v-shape, swoosh, bird wing, or one of the many other monikers economists have come up with to describe the course of a recovery after a plunge in output.

    The variation in countries’ second quarter GDP numbers — which cover the period between April 1 and June 30 — offer an illustration of how dependent national economies now are on the state of their public’s health. While doubts exist about China’s pandemic death toll and economic statistics, there’s no dispute that the country that was home to the original coronavirus outbreak is already back to growth.

    That’s thanks in part to the harsh regional lockdown in Wuhan, where the virus originated, quarantine systems that isolated victims from their families and co-workers, and mask mandates (now lifted) in at-risk cities like Beijing.

    Every member of the G7, meanwhile, is now in a deep recession, ranging from Japan’s 7.6 percent contraction in Q2, compared to the previous quarter, to Britain’s 20.1 percent contraction since Q1. The U.S. is about average among the seven countries, contracting by 9.5 percent in the same period compared with the first quarter of 2020...

    A Goldman Sachs report underscores the direct link between public health and the economy. The June 29 report estimates that a national face mask mandate in the United States “could potentially substitute for renewed lockdowns that would otherwise subtract nearly 5 percent from GDP.”


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    But a mask mandate itself in the U.S. would be significantly less effective than in some other countries.


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    Quote Originally Posted by KMR View Post
    But a mask mandate itself in the U.S. would be significantly less effective than in some other countries.
    Why?


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    I dont want to get ahead of myself, but it's starting to look like the US coronavirus recovery is stalling. After weeks of being on a -25%/2-week-period trajectory, we're currently just 7% down in cases from 2 weeks ago. These numbers are based on 7-day rolling averages, so they are not very noisy.

    20200906_073128.jpg

    Screenshot_20200906-073235_Chrome.jpg


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    https://www.bostonmagazine.com/news/...X6azIyUFsPh4U8

    A related story - a female friend asks if I want to hang out beachside. I take her up on the offer. I put on some cologne, just to impress the female a little. We meet outside and walk over there together. As we walk, I am thinking, "It'd be nice if she had complimented me on my choice of fragrance". She doesn't. So, we get there and sit down on the sand. Then it dawns on me that she has just recovered from Coviid and lost her sense of smell.

    For the record, it was an old Grey Flannel by Geoffrey Beene.
    Last edited by DLD; 09-11-2020 at 11:06 PM.


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    Interesting twitter thread discussing the divergence of NYC and Madrid caseloads after having very similar curves for the first several months of pandemic. https://mobile.twitter.com/_MiguelHe...24019450630144

    Seroprevalence studies indicate similar proportion of recovered population.

    Screenshot_20200912-064021_Gallery.jpg

    The poster attributes NYC's comparative success to having way more tests, 10x as many contact tracers per capita, and no indoor dining (which will begin late September at 25% capacity with no bar service and move to 50% in November, versus Madrid which opened at 60% with bar service in the summer)

    PS it seems that US caseloads continue to decline but closer to a -15%/2-week-period and not -30% that we were doing in July/August
    www.VideoAbe.com

    "Captain, the most elementary and valuable statement in science, the beginning of wisdom, is 'I do not know.'" - Lt. Cmdr. Data


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    Promising new theory on why the virus hits some people harder than others--

    https://ca.yahoo.com/news/supercompu...115500793.html
    "Money doesn't make films...You just do it and take the initiative." - Werner Herzog


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    Yes that was interesting in how it accounted for all those different associated maladies.


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    https://www.politico.eu/article/euro...virus-vaccine/

    Europe, the UK, and the US are all considering using legal loopholes to distribute a vaccine before it is officially approved and licensed.

    Yeah...I'll wait for round 2. There's no way in hell I'll be a vaccine Guinea pig


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    My dad (senior citizen) had a close call with death and went to the hospital for heart problems. They tested him for Covid and he tested negative. Then they put him in the Covid section with the Covid patients. What?? No one could visit him the entire time he was there. They told him the hospital was full but it appears that the truth was they just weren't really using part of the hospital so only the part they were using was full.
    The schools here and courts keep opening and closing. If someone might have been in contact with someone who tested positive then they close it down and quarantine. Even if someone might have been in contact with someone who might have been in contact with someone who might have tested positve, which was the case at a daycare.
    It seems for while that operation of businesses and schools are suspect to close at any time. So cancelled production jobs are the same. Masks have been required here for a while and most everyone is wearing them. I see lots of people driving alone in their car wearing one.

    High schools have adjusted so that the kids rotate half as many classes and attend less hours per week. But junior high isn't doing that. They still rotate the usual 7 periods.
    In choir class, the students must wear a mask, social distance and can hum but not sing.
    In band, all members must maintain 6 ft or 12 ft distance, except trombones which have an extra 5 ft added to that.
    Flute players cut a slit in their mask and slide the mouthpiece through the hole.
    The distance rules mean there is not enough room indoors so most of those choir and band classes must meet outdoors and the rules still apply.
    You can't make this stuff up.

    Shot some car dealer spots the other day. Several of the employees were not wearing masks even though they had a sign posted. I asked if we had to while working and the answer was yes. Agency guy told me he wasn't going to and he didn't. Trying to see through fogged up glasses doing gimbal shots is challenging.

    One of the dealerships had their best sales month ever, during the lockdown period and they did no advertising. Just the national advertising that GM did. I wonder how many people will be in financial trouble soon after maxing out their credit cards and getting deeper in debt buying stuff during their extra free time?

    Wonder if there will be any more incetives paid out?


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