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    Senior Member Batutta's Avatar
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    A good article about the statistical discrepancies, although it doesn't have any answers and is a few days old.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saska...nign-1.5500288

    I heard someone mention a theory that countries like Italy, Spain, Iran and France are more likely to have multiple generations living under one roof, which means the elderly and infirm would have a higher chance of being exposed.
    "Money doesn't make films...You just do it and take the initiative." - Werner Herzog


     

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    Resident Preditor mcgeedigital's Avatar
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    That makes sense. 1 out of every 4 people are smokers, which doesn't help.
    Matt Gottshalk - Director/ Dp/ and Emmy Award Winning Editor
    Producer/Director, Digital Creative for the United States Postal Service


     

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    Senior Member Cary Knoop's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Barry_Green View Post
    Logic says the way to arrest this is to test everyone and quarantine those who have it.
    This is what the WHO is saying.

    Personally, I think that is a bad idea. You simply can't remove the virus from this planet that way unless we go door-to-door and check every citizen in the world at the same time and put all the infected in isolation. That's not going to happen, so we would not know how long we have to "live" under those conditions.
    I would prefer lockdown-release cycles with the intent to mitigate a medical logistical disaster without having the illusion we are getting rid of the virus for good. Yes, people will die but if we don't have a vaccine or a cure it is unavoidable, but we do avoid people dying unnecessarily because we can't handle the vast amount of cases at the same time.

    I predict the balance between these two options will start in favor of the "round up all the infected and isolate them" but eventually the "we have to face the virus and keep on living" will become stronger and tip it.
    Last edited by Cary Knoop; 03-22-2020 at 01:54 PM.


     

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    Just woken up to the news that some States here in Oz have instituted border controls. If you cross a State line you go into 14 isolation. It's only a matter of time before all States introduce the same steps.

    Chris Young.


     

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    Quote Originally Posted by puredrifting View Post
    Been talking to a friend in Australia who is a musician. He's an American I grew up with here, but he moved to Australia decades ago. He's a musician. They're still playing live gigs with hundreds of people, their kids are still in school, it's business as usual over there. It's bumming me out, I've been telling him about the tidal wave of hurt that
    is coming their way and even if their leaders are being lackadaisical, they should be proactive and self-isolate.

    Spoke with a friend here last night in California, his brother works for the DOD. Martial Law is happening here very soon, straight from the horse's mouth. National Guard units are fully mobilized and on stand by. As soon as any rioting, looting, non-compliance with the state shut down happens, we will be under miitary rule.
    I went to Costco yesterday for supplies/groceries. Everyone was being VERY good with social distancing for the most part. Costco had dozens of employees running around wiping down carts, displays, etc. at all times. It was very orderly and efficient, you stood in line, and they were only letting in people at the same rate
    they were exiting. I was impressed and complimented the store manager for running their business in such a smart way. It gave me some hope and optimism.

    Also working with a friend who has a trade show business, trying to get the word out that he and all of his trade show colleagues can quickly mobilize and build portable isolation rooms for patient and hospital overflow. I'm editing the video today, we are showing it to State and county officials and FEMA. I really think things
    are going to get bad, pretty quickly. There are conspiracy theories flying around wildly, a lot of "noise" so it's hard to get a picture of what's really happening. But I see hospitals are building patient isolation units in their parking structures, I don't think they're doing this as a practice drill, they are anticipating tens or hundreds of thousands
    of patients at once.

    Not much we can do right now except try to help our communities and stay isolated. We are still hiking and going to the beach where my wife paddles her one man outrigger, as long as we stay away from others, we are still in compliance.
    Not any more in Aussie as of midday today the 23rd. All gigs have been shut down by Federal order.

    Chris Young


     

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    Senior Member Run&Gun's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cyvideo View Post
    Not any more in Aussie as of midday today the 23rd. All gigs have been shut down by Federal order.

    Chris Young
    Just saw on the news a few minutes ago, that they have now shut down the beaches, concerts, entertainment venues, etc.


     

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    Senior Member ahalpert's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul F View Post
    We're on the same page. Me and mine are taking all precautions. Those not doing so are irresponsible. I am more than anxious about going to the grocery store. I could go to the beach or open areas, but don't do so to avoid a trip to the gas station. We're hunkered in.

    I'm looking for something to pick me up from the doldrums the virus has put me in. So I'm looking for some good news. My supposing there is a much lower death rate based upon some reasonable assumptions makes me feel better and I was hoping to give others some encouragement and light at the end of the tunnel. That doesn't change my behavior to be reckless or irresponsible. Indications are that regardless what the news reports say about the virus and it certainly doesn't matter what I say, people are going to act the way they are going act. The reckless will be reckless and so on.
    This might pick you up from the doldrums - I read a thread by an epidemiologist who said that we're trying to predict the score of a baseball game in the bottom of the 1st inning. We have a lot of tricks we can pull that can change the outcome of the game.

    Meaning we could discover antiviral treatments or other remedies well before we develop a vaccine. And those treatments may make the disease manageable enough that we can stop the quarantine.


     

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    Rockin the Boat
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    Folks, let's face reality. Nobody - but NOBODY - knows how all of this is going to shake out, and furthermore it is impossible to predict: there is no earthly way to predict how many will die, how serious the crisis will be here in this country or elsewhere, how it's going to affect the global or any national economy etc. Let me repeat - It Is Impossible To Predict. Just two variables are enough to ensure that - what exactly are the authorities in charge going to do and when, and how is the populace going to react? Because both variables are inherently unpredictable, yet decisive in how the pandemic will play out, it therefore follows that nobody can possibly predict the outcome. But of course those are only two of dozens and dozens of variables with most of them completely impossible to forecast - so with this gigantic margin of error in projections any simulation is for all practical purposes an exercise in fiction.

    We simply have no idea, and cannot predict the size or effect of this pandemic, period.

    Here is an example of the laughable attempts at predicting what the economy will do - and all of these elite institutional forecasters and analysts frankly confess that all they can do is guess, because the margins of error are too large for the confidence interval to amount to a hill of beans - in other words, it's meaningless; you can read it for entertainment, but not for decision-making:

    'Unrecognizable': Experts warn of historic collapse in economic activity

    We. Do. Not. Know. And. Cannot. Predict.

    Now, we can argue on these boards and elsewhere, this way and that, but really, it's all guesses.

    We know it's serious. How serious? Nobody knows, so take everything you hear with a grain of salt. In this scenario many authorities in charge - as well as common citizens - have decided to take extreme measures simply on a precautionary principle. Will it work, and to what extent and what would happen if we did less or nothing? Nobody knows. Do what you need to keep safe. We have no idea what's ahead.


     

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    Senior Member Eric Coughlin's Avatar
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    Harvey Weinstein tested positive for Coronavirus.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/jailed...navirus-report


     

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    Quote Originally Posted by Run&Gun View Post
    Just saw on the news a few minutes ago, that they have now shut down the beaches, concerts, entertainment venues, etc.
    This is the official list of what is and isn't affected:

    Chris Young

    What businesses will be closed?

    On Sunday night, Mr Morrison announced a crackdown on public venues.

    From midday on Monday, the following businesses will be CLOSED:

    pubs
    clubs
    cinemas
    casinos
    nightclubs
    indoor places of worship
    gyms
    indoor sporting venues

    What businesses will be left open?

    Under the new measures, cafes and restaurants will be able to operate, but only to offer takeaway and delivery services.

    Hotels will be allowed to continue operations in an accommodation capacity.

    supermarkets
    banks
    petrol stations
    pharmacies
    convenience stores
    freight and logistics
    food delivery
    bottle shops
    hairdressers and beauticians


     

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