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    Production of shows was at an unsustainable level before the virus. Each of the streamers was trying to buy market share, spending billions. That was good for everyone. But the black swan arrived. Will production return to its former levels? I'm thinking no. There's a good case for saying it will, as the stakeholders were just getting started with their battle to take market share with several streamers just getting started recently. They will have to take on debt or dig into cash reserves to get things back to where they were. Some may not come back. For companies like Netflix, who continue to get revenue whether they make new shows or not, it could be a boon to build up cash reserves. Let's see what happens to their subscription rate as people pare down expenses.


     

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul F View Post
    Production of shows was at an unsustainable level before the virus. Each of the streamers was trying to buy market share, spending billions. That was good for everyone. But the black swan arrived. Will production return to its former levels? I'm thinking no. There's a good case for saying it will, as the stakeholders were just getting started with their battle to take market share with several streamers just getting started recently. They will have to take on debt or dig into cash reserves to get things back to where they were. Some may not come back. For companies like Netflix, who continue to get revenue whether they make new shows or not, it could be a boon to build up cash reserves. Let's see what happens to their subscription rate as people pare down expenses.
    I think in a down economy, the relative affordability of a streaming service vs a movie ticket or a cable subscription is a huge advantage.

    The coronavirus has put me out of work, but we'd starve before not subscribing to a single streamer since they're so cheap. Late last year, we canceled Netflix and began the "churn" of switching from one streamer to another every month or so to access their catalog. After my HBO subscription runs out this month, we'll give Disney+ a month or go back to Netflix to see the new season of Altered Carbon. You can't watch everything at once, after all.

    Of course, I'm a millennial and I've never had a cable subscription. It's possible that people with a strong tie to cable would rather keep their TV subscription and ditch the streamers. But a streamer subscription is far cheaper.

    Also, advertising revenue has plummeted. I know that many newspapers and journalists are on the chopping block now. It's a good time to be funded by subscription fees and not ad buys.


     

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul F View Post
    Production of shows was at an unsustainable level before the virus. Each of the streamers was trying to buy market share, spending billions. That was good for everyone. But the black swan arrived. Will production return to its former levels? I'm thinking no. There's a good case for saying it will, as the stakeholders were just getting started with their battle to take market share with several streamers just getting started recently. They will have to take on debt or dig into cash reserves to get things back to where they were. Some may not come back. For companies like Netflix, who continue to get revenue whether they make new shows or not, it could be a boon to build up cash reserves. Let's see what happens to their subscription rate as people pare down expenses.
    Quote Originally Posted by ahalpert View Post
    I think in a down economy, the relative affordability of a streaming service vs a movie ticket or a cable subscription is a huge advantage.

    The coronavirus has put me out of work, but we'd starve before not subscribing to a single streamer since they're so cheap. Late last year, we canceled Netflix and began the "churn" of switching from one streamer to another every month or so to access their catalog. After my HBO subscription runs out this month, we'll give Disney+ a month or go back to Netflix to see the new season of Altered Carbon. You can't watch everything at once, after all.

    Of course, I'm a millennial and I've never had a cable subscription. It's possible that people with a strong tie to cable would rather keep their TV subscription and ditch the streamers. But a streamer subscription is far cheaper.

    Also, advertising revenue has plummeted. I know that many newspapers and journalists are on the chopping block now. It's a good time to be funded by subscription fees and not ad buys.
    The relative "affordability"/"cheapness" of streaming subscriptions is definitely something they have going for them. It's like the Planet Fitness model, where they charge a fee that is so low that even if most people don't use it(the bulk of their income comes from people that DO NOT even use their membership), it's such a small amount of money that they keep it active "just in case" or because they deem it more of a hassle to cancel it than keep paying it(passive directly billed to a CC).

    I've trimmed some fat from monthly bills over the last few weeks(almost $300/month) that I've been meaning to do for a long time now, and I'm heavily debating cutting my DirecTV plan down a level and just getting the 'streaming only' services from the premium channels(HBO, Showtime, Cinemax). Even paying for the streaming version of those channels, it would save me another $75-$100 month(at least the first year). That's between $4k to close to $5k/year. I could probably save even more if I dropped DirecTV and went with cable, because they give you a discount bundling it with internet. I don't know if I'll keep Apple TV+ after the free subscription ends in November. My free Disney+ subscription goes through next January, so I have a while to think about that. I am getting way more out of Disney+ than Apple TV+. Netflix and Amazon Prime are definitely worth it, to me. I do have one friend that hasn't had any cable or sat service in several years. He has internet and basically only watches what you can get on YouTube, the internet or over-the-air. I'm 99% sure he doesn't even have Netflix.


     

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    I did not have time to read through 31 pages. However in Vancouver BC area all the shows and film shoots are cancelled. The entire film and TV industry basically stopped working, with unknown timeline of resuming any work again.


     

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    Quote Originally Posted by jerrygvizdek View Post
    I did not have time to read through 31 pages. However in Vancouver BC area all the shows and film shoots are cancelled. The entire film and TV industry basically stopped working, with unknown timeline of resuming any work again.
    There seems to be a paradox between the first two sentences.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul F View Post
    There seems to be a paradox between the first two sentences.
    I don't know if there is a paradox. I did not read 31 pages of posts, so I simply do not know if it was mentioned or not. But Vancouver BC TV/Film industry is shut down and nothing is being produced. Nobody knows when the production will resume, but most likely not before May or June the earliest. There are literally several thousands of jobs, that evaporated overnight. A lot of my friends are thinking, that deep recession will follow, and a lot of these jobs will not come back any time soon.


     

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    Quote Originally Posted by jerrygvizdek View Post
    I don't know if there is a paradox. I did not read 31 pages of posts, so I simply do not know if it was mentioned or not. But Vancouver BC TV/Film industry is shut down and nothing is being produced. Nobody knows when the production will resume, but most likely not before May or June the earliest. There are literally several thousands of jobs, that evaporated overnight. A lot of my friends are thinking, that deep recession will follow, and a lot of these jobs will not come back any time soon.
    He's making a bad joke that you should have time to read all the pages because all your work just got canceled.


     

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    There ya go.

    Jerry, it's a sickness. Please forgive this addled brain.


     

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul F View Post
    Production of shows was at an unsustainable level before the virus. Each of the streamers was trying to buy market share, spending billions. That was good for everyone. But the black swan arrived. Will production return to its former levels? I'm thinking no...
    I think it will within a year and a half or so but ... there's no schedule on who will spend what where and how. The TV network backed streamers (Disney/Hulu/Fox, Peacock, CBS All Access) basically have no choice. Apple and Netflix have a lot of money weighing down their pockets (Netflix has taken on $15B in debt but, with the Fed's zero prime, it's easy to refinance). In other words, the race may pause but it will resume shortly ... probably in Canada, much to the Vancouver's residents unbridled delight.


     

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    This was an interesting article about the future of TV production and Hollywood. Mostly conjecture and not facts.

    But the takeaway is that the shift we'll see this year away from pilots and a fall TV season towards commissioning a whole series at once and year-round production may persist in the future. And that to protect itself from a similar shock in the future, Hollywood may decentralize and spread production to more locations and times of year.

    https://nofilmschool.com/corona-changes-tv-writing


     

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