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    That's double what it was a week or so ago; someone here predicted it would go up. I don't recall the reasoning.


     

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    Senior Member Run&Gun's Avatar
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    And now...


    Tiger tests positive for coronavirus at Bronx Zoo, first known case in the world
    https://www.nationalgeographic.com/a...est-bronx-zoo/


     

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    Senior Member Cary Knoop's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ahalpert View Post
    The fatality rate in Germany is 1.4% and they're doing lots and lots of tests and they are intervening early with hospitalization and intubation for patients: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/w...eath-rate.html
    That's the case fatality rate, which depends mostly on the number of tests taken.
    The infection fatality rate is now widely established to be below 1%.

    A month ago we had tons of people completely downplaying the virus problem, now we seem to have the opposite, folks who want more doom and gloom!

    I think our county is doing a great job, from hospital staff to our military together with the discipline of the citizens in taking social distancing seriously!
    And there are early indications we are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel!


     

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    Senior Member cpreston's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul F View Post
    That's double what it was a week or so ago; someone here predicted it would go up. I don't recall the reasoning.
    The fatality rate will peak later than the infection rate. It generally takes a couple of weeks for a patient to die after they've been admitted to a hospital and added to the number of recorded infections.


     

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    Senior Member ahalpert's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cary Knoop View Post
    That's the case fatality rate, which depends mostly on the number of tests taken.
    The infection fatality rate is now widely established to be below 1%.

    A month ago we had tons of people completely downplaying the virus problem, now we seem to have the opposite, folks who want more doom and gloom!

    I think our county is doing a great job, from hospital staff to our military together with the discipline of the citizens in taking social distancing seriously!
    And there are early indications we are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel!
    I'm not sure anything is well established.

    That is the case fatality rate in Germany, but they are testing a lot of people through contact tracing, including those with no or few symptoms. So I choose to look at Germany for one of the most accurate sets of data we can look to.

    I don't want doom and gloom - I want the rosy predictions to prove true. But I want people to take this seriously. And I also acknowledge that your case fatality rate skyrockets when too many people get sick at once. Another reason Germany is doing well is that they have a higher proportion of ICU beds per capita. So much so that they are taking in patients from other European countries.


     

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul F View Post
    That's double what it was a week or so ago; someone here predicted it would go up. I don't recall the reasoning.
    That was probably my post, and the reasoning was: once you have mass testing implemented, the death rate can do nothing but go up. If the rate is #died / #infected, and the #infected doesn't materially change, then every death that happens serves to push the death RATE higher. Not just the death count, but also the percentage rate. And the deaths will keep occurring since it seems like it takes a week or two for the virus to run its course; during that time the rate will go up every time someone passes away from the virus.

    When you have few tests (like we've had), and then implement widespread testing, then the # of cases (# infected) will skyrocket, and the death RATE (not # of deaths) will plunge, because it's just simple math. Every case that's discovered increases the infection rate, but for every one of those that doesn't result in a death, it causes the overall death rate to drop. And that's what we've been seeing, IMO, which is leading to people saying "see, it's not so bad!" But that dropping rate can only happen until widespread testing accurately samples the true rate of infection. After that point, the rate of infection presumably won't rise anymore (due to herd immunity) and then every death that occurs after that moment will cause the death rate to rise up to its true level. Which, I fear, is when people will have another OH **** moment, as the rate rises.

    At this point any talk about the death rate is utter horsecrap. We cannot know the death rate until we know the true infection rate. Once the infection rate is known, you can then go about determining a death rate, but not before. And even then, the death rate is highly dependent on the condition of the medical system being discussed; for any given sampled population, the availability of ICU beds and ventilators and emergency staff will have a potentially huge influence on the actual final death rate (and the total number of deaths). It is entirely possible that the death rate of the coronavirus in Italy will end up being 10x higher than the death rate of the coronavirus in Singapore, once all is said and done. The difference will not be in the ultimate underlying lethality of the virus (which is the same in both cases) but instead will be directly attributable to each country's success in flattening the curve.
    Last edited by Barry_Green; 04-05-2020 at 09:29 PM.


     

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    Senior Member Cary Knoop's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Barry_Green View Post
    At this point any talk about the death rate is utter horsecrap. We cannot know the death rate until we know the true infection rate. Once the infection rate is known, you can then go about determining a death rate, but not before.
    True.

    Quote Originally Posted by Barry_Green View Post
    And even then, the death rate is highly dependent on the condition of the medical system being discussed; for any given sampled population, the availability of ICU beds and ventilators and emergency staff will have a potentially huge influence on the actual final death rate (and the total number of deaths).
    I think not as huge as some people think, there is currently no cure and hardly any treatment, Chloroquine seems to have some benefit. We can put people on a ventilator but 4 out of 5 will die.
    That may change soon, and hopefully, it will, but currently, people do not die in the USA of COVID-19 because there are no available beds or ventilators.
    But I think the bottom line is there is currently not much we can do about this disease.

    Talking about ventilators, there are reports that using pressure, as is currently the practice, destroys the lungs, and voices rise to change the protocol:

    https://newsdio.com/ventilation-prot...-rights/85283/
    Last edited by Cary Knoop; 04-05-2020 at 09:44 PM.


     

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cary Knoop View Post
    True.


    I think not as huge as some people think, there is currently no cure and hardly any treatment, Chloroquine seems to have some benefit. We can put people on a ventilator but 4 out of 5 will die.
    That may change soon, and hopefully, it will, but currently, people do not die in the USA of COVID-19 because there are no available beds or ventilators.
    But I think the bottom line is there is currently not much we can do about this disease.

    Talking about ventilators, there are reports that using pressure, as is currently the practice, destroys the lungs, and voices rise to change the protocol:

    https://newsdio.com/ventilation-prot...-rights/85283/
    I agree with most of you wrote EXCEPT that we ARE currently affected by a shortage of beds BECAUSE people are being told not to come into the hospital if their condition isn't serious.

    IN GERMANY, as the NYT article notes, they are checking in on confirmed cases regularly and bringing them to the hospital and even intubating them BEFORE they need it, and it improves their prognosis.

    In the UK, a woman called the paramedics one day and they told her she was doing well enough that she didn't need to go in. The next day she was dead.

    I've read that hydroxychloroquine helps, but mostly if you take it early on - which we can't do because we can't get tested unless you're already critically ill!


     

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    Senior Member Eric Coughlin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ahalpert View Post
    I agree with most of you wrote EXCEPT that we ARE currently affected by a shortage of beds BECAUSE people are being told not to come into the hospital if their condition isn't serious.

    IN GERMANY, as the NYT article notes, they are checking in on confirmed cases regularly and bringing them to the hospital and even intubating them BEFORE they need it, and it improves their prognosis.

    In the UK, a woman called the paramedics one day and they told her she was doing well enough that she didn't need to go in. The next day she was dead.

    I've read that hydroxychloroquine helps, but mostly if you take it early on - which we can't do because we can't get tested unless you're already critically ill!
    So what you’re saying is the logical thing to do would be to send home all the critically ill who cannot be helped and only treat people who aren’t yet that sick and are in the early stages of the virus.


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    Senior Member ahalpert's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Coughlin View Post
    So what youíre saying is the logical thing to do would be to send home all the critically ill who cannot be helped and only treat people who arenít yet that sick and are in the early stages of the virus.
    Lol the logical thing would be to have enough hospital capacity (as they do in Germany) to treat both critically ill and moderately patients. And then treating moderately ill patients prevents some from becoming critically ill.

    Germany is doing everything better than us. Earlier and more widespread testing, better contact tracing, more hospital beds and healthcare personnel...


     

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