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    Senior Member Batutta's Avatar
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    The numbers for this virus are inconsistent and all over the map once you start going country by country. Germany is the big head scratcher, with 24,000 cases but only 93 deaths. Some think this is due to Germany implementing wide spread testing early, so that the asymptomatic carriers could isolate themselves and not spread it to the more vulnerable population. Same with South Korea. Makes sense as the first to catch this virus are more likely to be the young and mobile, not the old and infirm. There is also the possibility there are two different strains of this virus, one being significantly more aggressive than the other. Or other as yet identified factors that intensify the action of it. Overall, still probably best to go with the worldwide numbers for making long term predictions, which currently puts the fatality rate at 4.2 percent.
    "Money doesn't make films...You just do it and take the initiative." - Werner Herzog


     

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    Senior Member ahalpert's Avatar
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    The most optimistic projection I've seen puts the mortality rate at .15% (based on 50% of population becoming infected and .3% of them dying), which would amount to 500k people in the US. Almost 3 million people die in the US from all other causes combined each year. https://www.haaretz.com/amp/israel-n...rong-1.8691031

    Would that loss be acceptable? Or unavoidable? Maybe. But the problems are: that estimate could be overly optimistic; and if we overwhelm the hospital system, there will be many more preventable deaths. The mortality rate also doesn't consider survivors who sustain lung damage.
    Last edited by ahalpert; 03-22-2020 at 07:03 AM.


     

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    Senior Member ahalpert's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Batutta View Post
    The numbers for this virus are inconsistent and all over the map once you start going country by country. Germany is the big head scratcher, with 24,000 cases but only 93 deaths. Some think this is due to Germany implementing wide spread testing early, so that the asymptomatic carriers could isolate themselves and not spread it to the more vulnerable population. Same with South Korea. Makes sense as the first to catch this virus are more likely to be the young and mobile, not the old and infirm. There is also the possibility there are two different strains of this virus, one being significantly more aggressive than the other. Or other as yet identified factors that intensify the action of it. Overall, still probably best to go with the worldwide numbers for making long term predictions, which currently puts the fatality rate at 4.2 percent.
    I think Germany has one of the highest per capita testing rates, which would explain the low mortality rate. Many of those patients may yet die and the mortality rate will go up. But I saw an optimistic estimate of a .3% mortality rate, which is close to what they currently have.


     

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    U-matic Member groveChuck's Avatar
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    Any event of mass casualties is a collection
    of individual stories.

    Here's the story of the sound man who died of Covid that Run&Gun wrote of. He did, it appears, have other
    health conditions. But he sounds like the sort of guy any of us would be fortunate to work with...

    Here's to you, Larry.

    https://www-latimes-com.cdn.ampproje...of-coronavirus

    PS, I didn't realize many anchors were working from home.


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    Senior Member paulears's Avatar
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    I'm going to just do things to keep busy and stop worrying. Far too many people now suddenly starting to panic, and I'm waiting for the Government to officially shut things down, because many people here are just behaving like nothing is happening. A big shock is really needed to shake these selfish people up. Listening conversations like "It's disgusting Costa has closed, I always have a coffee on my way into work....". Forgetting that work is what many people no longer actually have!


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    Senior Member ahalpert's Avatar
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    On the matter of optimistic vs pessimistic projections and what to do about them: https://twitter.com/asymmetricinfo/s...799321600?s=09


     

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    Senior Member puredrifting's Avatar
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    Been talking to a friend in Australia who is a musician. He's an American I grew up with here, but he moved to Australia decades ago. He's a musician. They're still playing live gigs with hundreds of people, their kids are still in school, it's business as usual over there. It's bumming me out, I've been telling him about the tidal wave of hurt that
    is coming their way and even if their leaders are being lackadaisical, they should be proactive and self-isolate.

    Spoke with a friend here last night in California, his brother works for the DOD. Martial Law is happening here very soon, straight from the horse's mouth. National Guard units are fully mobilized and on stand by. As soon as any rioting, looting, non-compliance with the state shut down happens, we will be under miitary rule.
    I went to Costco yesterday for supplies/groceries. Everyone was being VERY good with social distancing for the most part. Costco had dozens of employees running around wiping down carts, displays, etc. at all times. It was very orderly and efficient, you stood in line, and they were only letting in people at the same rate
    they were exiting. I was impressed and complimented the store manager for running their business in such a smart way. It gave me some hope and optimism.

    Also working with a friend who has a trade show business, trying to get the word out that he and all of his trade show colleagues can quickly mobilize and build portable isolation rooms for patient and hospital overflow. I'm editing the video today, we are showing it to State and county officials and FEMA. I really think things
    are going to get bad, pretty quickly. There are conspiracy theories flying around wildly, a lot of "noise" so it's hard to get a picture of what's really happening. But I see hospitals are building patient isolation units in their parking structures, I don't think they're doing this as a practice drill, they are anticipating tens or hundreds of thousands
    of patients at once.

    Not much we can do right now except try to help our communities and stay isolated. We are still hiking and going to the beach where my wife paddles her one man outrigger, as long as we stay away from others, we are still in compliance.
    It's a business first and a creative outlet second.
    G.A.S. destroys lives. Stop buying gear that doesn't make you money.


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    It's becoming clear to me (ok, ok,be careful what you say when you don't have all the facts, but....) that the mortality rate is far lower than being reported. My reasoning is that since they only report a case as someone whom they've tested positive and they are woefully short of test kits, many have the virus and have not been counted. These people never even when to the hospital. So the total cases being reported is far lower than the actual cases. One research group estimates that the number of cases is 11x what is being reported. That would make the mortality rate ~11x lower than being reported. That's good news for everyone.

    The local paper is reporting that the beaches here, which are normally wide open empty expanses of sand, are packed with people not paying any attention to the distancing rule. I find that hard to believe as these beaches are huge and even with the parking lots full, one could be pretty much on your own at the beach. I think they must be exaggerating a bit. I guess we all had the same idea. The wife and I were thinking of picnicking at the beach, but cancel that.
    Last edited by Paul F; 03-22-2020 at 09:24 AM.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul F View Post
    It's becoming clear to me (ok, ok,be careful what you say when you don't have all the facts, but....) that the mortality rate is far lower than being reported.
    What's becoming clear to me is that we don't actually know anything about it yet. Every three days or so we read something new that upends what our prior understanding was.

    I am of the opinion that we should be watching and listening to those who are ahead of us on the curve. China dug mass graves, enforced absolute quarantines, and there's footage of them spraying down the streets and buildings with chemicals.

    Italy has an overwhelmed health care system, described by those on the ground as a war zone environment, having to triage patients to decide who even gets treated at all, and who they just let die. Our infection rate is tracking exactly with Italy's, we are about 8 days behind them.

    On the other hand, we have spring break going on, and the report above about Australia still having live concerts. We had New York's governor adamantly refusing to close the schools for a while, and now New York is the hardest hit state.

    In Nevada the governor ordered ALL non-essential businesses closed a few days ago. And the mayor of Las Vegas is fighting back against that. Simultaneously, my home state of Texas was open for business as usual.

    And we still have people saying "the death rate is so low." I hear people saying "you take a risk every time you cross the street." Well, yes, there's risk in crossing the street, but the insanity of that argument is: nobody closes their eyes, plugs their ears, and leaps into a busy street. If there's cars coming, the risk is extraordinarily increased, and you DON'T cross the street!

    China and Italy's examples show that there is a hell of a lot of traffic on the street right now, and repeating a statistic about low death rates is about as helpful as someone standing next to you on that busy highway saying "statistically, only 78 people die crossing the street each year, that's a 0.000000001% death rate, so go for it."

    Logic says the way to arrest this is to test everyone and quarantine those who have it. That is not what's being done yet. Tests are being rationed to those who show symptoms, and by then it's too late to control the spread. So, yes, I think overreaction is going to rule the day until we can get to a point of universal testing. I fully expect that our country will follow Italy's and China's path; there is simply no reason to think we won't.

    For me and mine, we are self quarantined. Overreaction? We will see. Martial law will also be seen as an overreaction, but I can't see why it won't happen, if we don't get mass testing implemented ASAP.


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    We're on the same page. Me and mine are taking all precautions. Those not doing so are irresponsible. I am more than anxious about going to the grocery store. I could go to the beach or open areas, but don't do so to avoid a trip to the gas station. We're hunkered in.

    I'm looking for something to pick me up from the doldrums the virus has put me in. So I'm looking for some good news. My supposing there is a much lower death rate based upon some reasonable assumptions makes me feel better and I was hoping to give others some encouragement and light at the end of the tunnel. That doesn't change my behavior to be reckless or irresponsible. Indications are that regardless what the news reports say about the virus and it certainly doesn't matter what I say, people are going to act the way they are going act. The reckless will be reckless and so on.


     

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