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    Senior Member Run&Gun's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by groveChuck View Post
    Yeah, and not that it's football, but that it's fall.
    And if it's bad in the fall, it's really bad- production and pandemic.

    Though a friend of mine shot a 2 camera interview today at a house with the cameras just outside the open front door, and the subject in the living room.
    And celebrated... wow.
    Everyone I know in the business is beyond concerned, at this point. It’s basically like someone threw a master OFF switch for production and it may stay that way for God knows how long. It’s entirely possible that a lot of us don’t see work again until 2021. Last week we had a multi-cam shoot come up and lined up out of state for the end of this week. Small crew, safety protocols being laid out, then they pulled the plug, because of concerns if something actually did happen and also just the optics of it(stay home, but we’re sending these people out). I’m sure there are plenty of others on here who have been around for some of the ups & downs we’ve had in the industry over the years/decades that made you pucker and worry, but we’ve never faced anything like this.


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    Quote Originally Posted by ahalpert View Post
    An American epidemiologist released a paper concluding that the US could loosen restrictions if infections declined in an area for 14 days straight AND hospital capacity could handle a potential surge in cases AND we could test a sufficient number of people per day.
    Every day brings something new. And every report brings an opposite report. Some say the French have approved the malaria drug and shown incredible success, others say the malaria drug is useless and shows no difference between treated and untreated cases.

    If the Abbott Labs testing machine is available quickly, that could change the entire nature of testing. And widespread testing is vital, it's the only way to know what the real infection rate is. Speaking of which:
    PS: did you see the Italian article I referenced above? There's reason to believe that the actual mortality rate is 1%.
    I looked at that, and was immediately put off by the notion that they're not making any claims based on evidence, they're making their claims based on assumed evidence. As in, they assumed that 100% of the population of those italian towns was infected. They have no evidence for that assumption (that I saw), they just claim it. And then they say "if that's true, then the death rate was 1%."

    Contrast that with some reports on the ground from Wuhan, which are saying that the actual death count may very well be around 46,000 vs. the Chinese government's official number of 2,500. That would put the mortality rate (in, admittedly, a totally overwhelmed medical system) somewhere around 19x higher than estimated. Which further makes the case for extending the distancing and flattening the curve.

    On the other hand, you have places like Tokyo which, while being the most crowded city on earth (with 35,000,000 people) seems to be going about business basically as usual, and has a very low reported infection rate. Why is it so low? Is it because culturally they already don't shake hands or generally otherwise touch? Is it because so many of them already wear masks? Is it because the official numbers are being astoundingly under-reported? Who knows the actual truth? Although I would point to the government's statements during the Fukushima crisis, which continually and repeatedly said "we have it under control, everything's fine" only to be changed two days later with "whoa, it was 10x worse than we thought, but boy, we sure do have it under control now, nobody worry", only to be revised two days later with "oops, really it was 100x worse than we thought, but trust us, we've got a handle on it now".

    So who's right? Who's telling the truth? Whose policies are actually the best, going forward? What is the actual threat level? I'm convinced we still don't actually KNOW. As far as I'm concerned, the best news so far is that new Abbott Labs 5-minute test. Widespread testing is the only way to really know what the real infection rate is.


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    Senior Member cpreston's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Barry_Green View Post

    So who's right? Who's telling the truth? Whose policies are actually the best, going forward? What is the actual threat level? I'm convinced we still don't actually KNOW. As far as I'm concerned, the best news so far is that new Abbott Labs 5-minute test. Widespread testing is the only way to really know what the real infection rate is.
    This is where I am at with it. Everything appears to be misinformation at this point. If you find when credible claim, you can find another credible claim that it is wrong. Hear one thing and within 24hrs it will probably have to be walked back. I just want to go back to work. The problem is that until we are not limited by tests and can get a representative sample of an entire country or region, we don't have any actual idea of a good response to limit the damage. In most of the Western countries, the only good indicator will be how much the overall death rate increases in April compared to the previous year. So we will have to wait.


     

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    Senior Member Cary Knoop's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cpreston View Post
    The problem is that until we are not limited by tests and can get a representative sample of an entire country or region, we don't have any actual idea of a good response to limit the damage. In most of the Western countries, the only good indicator will be how much the overall death rate increases in April compared to the previous year. So we will have to wait.
    Exactly!


     

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    Senior Member puredrifting's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Run&Gun View Post
    Everyone I know in the business is beyond concerned, at this point. It’s basically like someone threw a master OFF switch for production and it may stay that way for God knows how long. It’s entirely possible that a lot of us don’t see work again until 2021. Last week we had a multi-cam shoot come up and lined up out of state for the end of this week. Small crew, safety protocols being laid out, then they pulled the plug, because of concerns if something actually did happen and also just the optics of it(stay home, but we’re sending these people out). I’m sure there are plenty of others on here who have been around for some of the ups & downs we’ve had in the industry over the years/decades that made you pucker and worry, but we’ve never faced anything like this.
    We had a Live Stream bid out and accepted by a huge healthcare provider, with a panel of eight doctors in studio going out to a small audience of about 70 medical students. We could do the shoot without breaking the regulations since the healthcare provider is an "essential business". One client was hot to do it and we were heading that way, using safe distancing and disinfection protocols, it would be possible to do the shoot safely with minimal exposure to crew and doctors but for the same reason, possible negative public perception, the company pulled the plug. Sigh. Bills are due on Wednesday, crap. So close, yet so far out of reach to just earn a few thousand dollars.

    Maybe we can all get back to work as soon as all of us can wear quarantine "Andromeda Strain" style suits? Seriously, we can't all survive just being quarantined for the foreseeable future, especially for many months or even years, something will have to give. I'm a scuba diver, I'm used to being in wetsiut with a mask and regulator.
    Last edited by puredrifting; 03-30-2020 at 10:17 AM.
    It's a business first and a creative outlet second.
    G.A.S. destroys lives. Stop buying gear that doesn't make you money.


     

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    Senior Member Batutta's Avatar
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    I think the best we can do is just looking at the biggest data set, which is reported worldwide cases. That is around 750,000 infections, and 36,000 deaths. That puts the case fatality rate at 4.8 percent. It's been hovering near this number for weeks now, although it is slowly creeping up. Speculating on anything else (under reported numbers etc), is just speculation.
    "Money doesn't make films...You just do it and take the initiative." - Werner Herzog


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    So many people I know got laid off last week or cancelled contracts indefinitely. I have been feeling a ton of guilt as I got really really fortunate with my current situation. I left freelance 2yrs ago to run a studio for a toy company and we had enough foresight to lock down a small local studio I could move our gear and continue to shoot tabletop for now and remain employed unlike most of my friends. A fortunate bonus my daughter is able to hand model for me at standard rate also. Since I've been fortunate I plan to look into making a donation to local support services helping gig economy workers who have been left without any safety net. Everything can change quickly but for now I'm one of the lucky ones.


     

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    Rockin the Boat
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    Like I said a few days ago, we have no firm numbers, and so trying to calculate mortality rates, infection rates, severity of morbidity by percentage etc. are all wild estimates of completely uncertain value. As William Goldman said - and the older I get, the more areas I realize that is applicable to - "nobody knows anything". It's not just Hollywood.

    Sweden is taking a different approach from the rest of Europe. Time will tell if they made the right call (or the right "guess" and simply got lucky):

    Lockdown, what lockdown? Sweden's unusual response to coronavirus


     

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    Senior Member ahalpert's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Batutta View Post
    I think the best we can do is just looking at the biggest data set, which is reported worldwide cases. That is around 750,000 infections, and 36,000 deaths. That puts the case fatality rate at 4.8 percent. It's been hovering near this number for weeks now, although it is slowly creeping up. Speculating on anything else (under reported numbers etc), is just speculation.
    The only problem there is that neither all fatalities nor all infections are reported, both for lack of testing and for lack of transparency.

    If the Wuhan death count was radically higher, why might the total number of infections not be radically higher as well?

    The Italian study indicated a mortality rate of 1% based on the assumption that all excess deaths in that municipality during the outbreak were actually caused by covid (4x the reported covid deaths). The flimsier assumption was that everyone in the town had been infected - possible, but unlikely.

    Also, the mortality rate in an overwhelmed hospital system will be much higher, so what are we really measuring?

    I think we'll need statistics from random serological antibody tests of the general population before we can grasp how many asymptomatic or mild cases have occurred that went untested, and therefore the true number of infections and the true mortality rate.


     

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    Senior Member Batutta's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ahalpert View Post
    The only problem there is that neither all fatalities nor all infections are reported, both for lack of testing and for lack of transparency.
    Yeah, but, in the absence of that, it's the best way to guess, more so as the numbers get larger, which was my point. You can only guess on what is known, not what is unknown. What's distressing to me, is that as more stats are reported worldwide, the fatality rate is creeping up. I would expect that to go down with more numbers, if the real fatality rate is much lower.
    Last edited by Batutta; 03-30-2020 at 12:06 PM.
    "Money doesn't make films...You just do it and take the initiative." - Werner Herzog


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