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    Coronavirus Impact
    #1
    Senior Member thefilmaddict's Avatar
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    Hi guys,

    I know that many of you are from all over the world. Here in CT, Coronavirus (covid-19) has just started disrupting life here. My kid is home from school and work has slowed down. Luckily, everyone in my family is healthy. I wish the best for all of you.

    I recently went to my local grocery store and had a surreal experience. I made a short little video documenting it:

    https://youtu.be/C7YL0lENcMk
    What do you mean funny? Like a clown? Do I amuse you?! Huh??!!


     

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    The impact is going to be overwhelming. I am with my octogenarian in-laws in Nevada. The governor just basically shut down all business in the State, other than essential businesses (fire, police, grocery, gas). All schools, all casinos, and all the major Strip hotels are closed. He urged self quarantine, he said "this is not the time for sleepovers and birthday parties, this is the time to aggressively stop the spread of this virus."

    So, yeah, we're still not quite at Italy's and Spain's full quarantine status yet, but I imagine it's only a week or so away.


     

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    #4
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    Tonight's Florida update - 216 positives (from 170 yesterday, although that was in the morning ... still a big jump), 7 dead (all elderly and in poor health, except the last one with no details yet given). Restaurants are open only for take-out and deliveries. Grocery stores are working shorter hours and now have a police car upfront for security. Miami beaches are semi-closed to large crowds. Bars/night clubs/gyms are closed for the time being.

    On the other hand, there are plenty of spring-breakers making the scene.


     

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    #5
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    Our county has declared a lockdown at midnight for 3 weeks. People in our area have been cool. Grocery stores have not been raided. Being a modest size town, I don't think people have as much of a feeling of apprehension that might be felt in a dense urban area.


     

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    #6
    Senior Member Eric Coughlin's Avatar
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    I went to the grocery store in Atlanta a couple days ago. It was slightly busy, but not terribly so. I've certainly had much longer lines around Thanksgiving or other random times before. The toilet paper aisle was empty, bread was low but there was some, I think there was some off brand water left but not the good stuff (Desani), and most of the rest of the grocery store was pretty well stocked. I filled my cart with a few months full of food, but I'll probably be back to the store before long to get more fresh food. I've been on a health food kick lately for unrelated reasons, lost close to 10 lbs so far (got a spare tire to get rid of), but in the midst of Coronavirus, I'm now getting the added benefit of a likely better immune system. It's actually been at least a few months since I've been sick, while I've typically gotten sick once every perhaps three months through my life.

    I also went to the gun store and got some more ammo. The gun store was hopping with business, guns flying off the shelves. Signs saying limits of one box of ammo per person but they let me buy the six I asked for. Merica.

    One thing I don't understand about hoarding bottled water is, are people expecting the water at their home to stop working? And if so, isn't it a lot cheaper to start stock piling water from home rather than buying a bunch of bottled water? It's like, the apocalypse is coming, but better be stocked up on some posh water options cause we don't be drinking none of that sink water. Good God if we have to drink rain water than we're all doomed, cause only very non-posh people would ever consider that.

    I've seen a few people wearing masks but not many. Roads still seem have a pretty ordinary number of cars on them.

    I made the mistake of adding salt to my canned green beans. Never again.



    Throwing out some stats...

    Death rate for reported Coronavirus cases for age 10-39 is .2% (source: https://www.latimes.com/california/s...y-young-person). Now let's imagine that only 10% of the infected get tested and reported, that brings the actual death rate down to .02%. Estimating that 37.5% Americans are 10-39, so out of 330 million Americans, 124 million are 10-39. If every single one of the 124 million 10-39 year olds got Coronavirus over the course of a year, at a .02% death rate, that's 24,800 deaths.

    Comparing to car accidents, in the U.S. there are about 38,000 car accidents deaths per year. If the 10-39 range is again 37.5% of car accident deaths, that puts that age bracket at 14,225 deaths per year. 24,800 / 14,225 = 1.74. Which means, in a worst case scenario where literally every American got infected with the Coronavirus over the course of one year, a 10-39 year old would be 1.74 times more likely to die from Coronavirus that year than from a car accident. Given that Coronavirus will likely last for around a year while car accidents have been occurring for the past over 100 years and will continue for some time (self driving cars perhaps changing that in the future), a person who spends 80 years in a car would then be 46 times more likely to die in a car accident over the course of their life.

    The mortality stats from that article were as follows, so can be adjusted for the different ages.

    ages 10-19: 0.2%
    ages 20-29: 0.2%
    ages 30-39: 0.2%
    ages 40-49: 0.4%
    ages 50-59: 1.3%
    ages 60-69: 3.6%
    ages 70-79: 8%
    80 and over: 14.8%
    Last edited by Eric Coughlin; 03-17-2020 at 10:24 PM.


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    #7
    Rockin the Boat
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    I appreciate the concern, and truly feel for the elderly and those with conditions. I think it's a very good idea for them to isolate and get help with things like grocery deliveries. But I cannot avoid observing that this thing is BONKERS. You can't shut down the country and have everyone indoor like this, sorry. The economic impact is going to be devastating and prolonged if it goes on too long. They're saying to self-isolate for 2-3 weeks. OK, and then what? As soon as they're out again, the thing spreads all over again. It's insane. You're accomplishing nothing. The horse is already out of the barn. At this point, and I hate to say it, we've got to adjust to some deaths as a fact of life. Again, isolate the elderly and those with conditions and get them help. But the younger need to be out there and get herd immunity the old-fashioned way. We cannot hide from this. The economy simply cannot take months of this nonsense. I'm not being a jerk, or heartless. I'm just being realistic - a devastated economy is NOT a cure for a virus. It can only make things worse. We need everyone under 60 AND IN GOOD HEALTH to go about their business to keep the economy going - otherwise it'll be very, very bad, Great Depression style bad. We have high debt levels, both government and consumer. We cannot afford to be at a standstill for months. Yes, there will be some deaths - this truly truly is regrettable, but we have no choice. This self-isolation for those who are asymptomatic under 60 and healthy must stop - we need to get back to business pronto.

    I apologize if this seems a bit tough, but folks, most of us have not experienced a truly bad Great Depression type economy. We are not prepared. We should avoid it, even at the cost of some lives lost (and I am a potential victim too, we need to sacrifice for the common good).


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    #8
    Senior Member Eric Coughlin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldCorpse View Post
    I appreciate the concern, and truly feel for the elderly and those with conditions. I think it's a very good idea for them to isolate and get help with things like grocery deliveries. But I cannot avoid observing that this thing is BONKERS. You can't shut down the country and have everyone indoor like this, sorry. The economic impact is going to be devastating and prolonged if it goes on too long. They're saying to self-isolate for 2-3 weeks. OK, and then what? As soon as they're out again, the thing spreads all over again. It's insane. You're accomplishing nothing. The horse is already out of the barn. At this point, and I hate to say it, we've got to adjust to some deaths as a fact of life. Again, isolate the elderly and those with conditions and get them help. But the younger need to be out there and get herd immunity the old-fashioned way. We cannot hide from this. The economy simply cannot take months of this nonsense. I'm not being a jerk, or heartless. I'm just being realistic - a devastated economy is NOT a cure for a virus. It can only make things worse. We need everyone under 60 AND IN GOOD HEALTH to go about their business to keep the economy going - otherwise it'll be very, very bad, Great Depression style bad. We have high debt levels, both government and consumer. We cannot afford to be at a standstill for months. Yes, there will be some deaths - this truly truly is regrettable, but we have no choice. This self-isolation for those who are asymptomatic under 60 and healthy must stop - we need to get back to business pronto.

    I apologize if this seems a bit tough, but folks, most of us have not experienced a truly bad Great Depression type economy. We are not prepared. We should avoid it, even at the cost of some lives lost (and I am a potential victim too, we need to sacrifice for the common good).
    What have you got to lose, though? You're just an old corpse. I agree, though. I don't get the people who are saying things like saving lives is always more important than freedom and the economy. What happened to the American motto, "Give me liberty, or give me death"? People fought and died for freedom in the American Revolutionary War and now we have a virus coming for our freedom, and our first reaction is to surrender to it because that will save lives, but at what cost. If it was just giving it all up for a couple or few weeks no big deal, but for a year or two, that's drastic. Realistically if half of America stops working for the next one to two years and social distancing for that entire time, an economic breakdown of that level could cause more deaths than the virus ever would have. People could be killing each other for food. Good thing they didn't go to work though so they could avoid a small chance of death from a virus. It's like in The Walking Dead where the zombies are no longer the primary threat; it's other people.

    I suppose if one is optimistic they could look at China's dwindling new cases and hope that countries will be able to contain it, in which case shutting everything down could be worth it. So, perhaps it's worth a try, but at some point, it may not be wise to continue the whole social distancing and having everything shut down, and to just accept the risks involved with contracting the virus.


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    #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Coughlin View Post
    I also went to the gun store and got some more ammo. The gun store was hopping with business, guns flying off the shelves. Signs saying limits of one box of ammo per person but they let me buy the six I asked for. Merica.
    I've heard a lot of small towns all over the USA were stocking up on ammo and liquor.


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    #10
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    Euros 2020 - a quadrennial European soccer tournament for the best national teams, with Portugal being the 2016 winner - has been pushed into the next year. This should allow the domestic leagues to wind down their local competitions into June. The Euros are generally considered the third biggest global sporting event after the World Cup and the Olympics.

    The Olympics schedule has not been changed.


     

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