Coronavirus Impact

[Eric Coughlin]

Germany is doing everything better than us. Earlier and more widespread testing, better contact tracing, more hospital beds and healthcare personnel...

And let's not forget Arri.

[ahalpert]

And let's not forget Arri.

I'd say those 2 things are related (high standards of science/engineering and medicine/policy).

Arri is the only company that reports honest DR numbers - that's part of the reason I trust the German Covid numbers.

[groveChuck]

I've read that hydroxychloroquine helps, but mostly if you take it early on - which we can't do because we can't get tested unless you're already critically ill!

And that'sa what's called a Catch-22...

Arri is the only company that reports honest DR numbers - that's part of the reason I trust the German Covid numbers.

Just like the VW emissions scandal?

Wearing a helmet is to social distancing as riding a bike is to living in an epidemic.

Is this a new SAT analogy question?

the WHO didn't want to call covid19 SARS-2 (which it is) -

Also, The Who cancelled their upcoming tour (and I had 10th row tickets)

I'll probably get banned for this, but given there are so many overtly political posts in this thread I'll risk it; I hate, absolutely hate, wrestling. There, I said it.

Shockingly well! Thanks for asking!

Glad to hear it! And thanks for the other info, too. What bike do you ride?




Random thought #7:
Has anyone else noticed there's only like 10 people commenting on this topic???
Like, maybe if we get off our devices and walk outside, it's... post-Covid zombie apocalypse?
And we have to repopulate the Earth and it's just... us 10 guys? (dammit, I always knew we needed more women on the forum!).
OK, so I watched too much Twilight Zone as a kid...

[ahalpert]

And that'sa what's called a Catch-22...

Just like the VW emissions scandal?

Random thought #7:
Has anyone else noticed there's only like 10 people commenting on this topic???
Like, maybe if we get off our devices and walk outside, it's... post-Covid zombie apocalypse?
And we have to repopulate the Earth and it's just... us 10 guys? (dammit, I always knew we needed more women on the forum!).
OK, so I watched too much Twilight Zone as a kid...

Catch-22 - it wouldn't have to be if we had more damn tests!

VW - touche. Although the way they cheated was pretty sophisticated - it's not like they just reported the wrong numbers. Sort of the difference between lying to your parents about your report card versus tricking your teacher into giving you a better grade. (Although I'm sorta saying, "Still - where did the lighter fluid come from?")

Twilight Zone - I love that thought. Are you thinking of the episode where he falls asleep reading in the bank vault? "But there was time now..." I'm pretty sure everyone else just got fed up with our obsessiveness...probably wise. But dammit I hate situations where I have no control.

[Benjobe]

But that dropping rate can only happen until widespread testing accurately samples the true rate of infection.

Perhaps the Nyquist-Shannon Theory could be applied to the tested rate of infection (digital) vs. the "true rate" of infection (acoustic)?

The N-S Theory, as far as it applies to audio, states that the digital sampling rate (44.1kHz for example) must be at least 2x higher than the highest frequency of the original acoustic source audio in order to have an accurate representation. Otherwise Aliasing occurs which means that the recorded sound has zero fidelity to the original audio.

Aliasing in video is similar. An HD recording of a brick wall at a certain distance will produce distracting rainbow-like aberrations that a 4K recording would not.

Applying the N-S Theory to the infection rate would imply that we would have to test people 2x faster than the "true rate" of infection. What is the "true rate" of infection?

Perhaps there is a back-of-the-napkin application of this theory that could produce a reasonable goal for an accurate testing rate.

[cpreston]

I agree with most of you wrote EXCEPT that we ARE currently affected by a shortage of beds BECAUSE people are being told not to come into the hospital if their condition isn't serious.

IN GERMANY, as the NYT article notes, they are checking in on confirmed cases regularly and bringing them to the hospital and even intubating them BEFORE they need it, and it improves their prognosis.

An alternate hypothesis is that intubating patients early is going to end up killing more patients due to damage to the lungs and complications, but in the short term it will keep more people alive for a couple of weeks as they are artificially kept alive.

[ahalpert]

An alternate hypothesis is that intubating patients early is going to end up killing more patients due to damage to the lungs and complications, but in the short term it will keep more people alive for a couple of weeks as they are artificially kept alive.

Perhaps, but the article suggests otherwise:

"“The reason why we in Germany have so few deaths at the moment compared to the number of infected can be largely explained by the fact that we are doing an extremely large number of lab diagnoses,” said Dr. Christian Drosten, chief virologist at Charité, whose team developed the first test.

By now, Germany is conducting around 350,000 coronavirus tests a week, far more than any other European country. Early and widespread testing has allowed the authorities to slow the spread of the pandemic by isolating known cases while they are infectious. It has also enabled lifesaving treatment to be administered in a more timely way.

“When I have an early diagnosis and can treat patients early — for example put them on a ventilator before they deteriorate — the chance of survival is much higher,” Professor Kräusslich said."

[Run&Gun]

Perhaps the Nyquist-Shannon Theory could be applied to the tested rate of infection (digital) vs. the "true rate" of infection (acoustic)?

The N-S Theory, as far as it applies to audio, states that the digital sampling rate (44.1kHz for example) must be at least 2x higher than the highest frequency of the original acoustic source audio in order to have an accurate representation. Otherwise Aliasing occurs which means that the recorded sound has zero fidelity to the original audio.

Aliasing in video is similar. An HD recording of a brick wall at a certain distance will produce distracting rainbow-like aberrations that a 4K recording would not.

Applying the N-S Theory to the infection rate would imply that we would have to test people 2x faster than the "true rate" of infection. What is the "true rate" of infection?

Perhaps there is a back-of-the-napkin application of this theory that could produce a reasonable goal for an accurate testing rate.

An article I read and posted a link to here earlier said at that time that whatever diagnosed numbers we were being given, they needed to be multiplied by 1,024 to give you the probable real numbers of infected people.

[ahalpert]

Scott Gottlieb MD (former FDA chief) says that looking at the number of covid hospitalizations per state versus the reported number of cases suggests that there are about 2.5x as many covid cases as reported: https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/...057405952?s=09

If you multiply the number of US cases by 2.5 and divide our death toll by that number, you arrive at an infection fatality rate of 1.2%, very close to the 1.4% that Germany reports.

[Cary Knoop]

...you arrive at an infection fatality rate of 1.2%, very close to the 1.4% that Germany reports.

It is already established that the infection death rate is much lower.
I don't know why you consistently are trying to make things look worse than they really are!