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    The Video/Digital Cinema News Cycle is Eating Itself?
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    Senior Member puredrifting's Avatar
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    The big headline today? "Sony a6400 2.0 Firmware Update adds Real-time Eye AF for Animals"

    Has anyone noticed traffic seems way, way down here? Very few new thread topics, mostly pontificating about the few new products that were introduced at CineGear 2019 and the Apple WWDC. Check out Cinema 5D and Newsshooter, I'm seeing the same thing over there too. Sure, they have new articles every day which this site doesn't but a lot of the new articles seems to be scraping the bottom of the barrel as far as what they are covering. I hasten to say, the Reckoning of the digital cinema business is here. We may get to the point where there are only one or two new cameras per year introduced, if that and all of the ancillary gear like grip, lighting and audio will undoubtedly slow down too. I'm kind of digging it, it's nice to not have to waste tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars per year on new gear, a lot of it built on artificial and not actual business needs instead of need to keep up with the latest flashy gear for the sake of gear (resolution wars, VR and 3D Mania, FF Mania).

    Not good for manufacturers and retailers but definitely good for us users who are trying to make a living with this gear who are like rats on a treadmill trying to always have the newest expensive gear to keep up with the "latest thing."
    Last edited by puredrifting; 06-14-2019 at 10:06 PM.
    It's a business first and a creative outlet second.
    G.A.S. destroys lives. Stop buying gear that doesn't make you money.


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    Yes, the mania is over. Everyone has what they need (well, there's always something we want). Moore's law has caught up to our desires in the camera department. That's good.

    The poor buggers heading camera divisions are trying to figure out what's next. They need volume sales or heads will roll (oh, they already have at Canon). Young engineers are probably leaving for other divisions as things slow down. Then the camera division is left with the older guys that can't keep up with the young guys and have stayed too long in one place and are afraid to move on. Camera divisions combine and consolidate. One division's heads start pushing the other out in a power play. Some research is dropped. Product lines are simplified. The president tells them 8k is the end of the line. They pray that full-frame will save them.


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    puredrifting, yes, you make a valid point.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul F View Post
    Yes, the mania is over. Everyone has what they need (well, there's always something we want). Moore's law has caught up to our desires in the camera department. That's good...
    It's not the Moore Law - computers are getting faster and faster, which is certainly useful in the video processing, data centers, etc. - but the ... what was the term I used a while back? ... an Irrelevancy Valley (TM). The photo-video industry simply has gotten to the point where images taken even with the entry level cameras have reached levels beyond which no human eye can discern them. Resolution, dynamic range, slow motion, low light, etc. are pretty much where there is no next step. There's a sensor speed readout/global shutter, IBIS, auto focus, codecs, media and a few other areas where marginal improvements can still be still wrung out. But it's getting pretty close to the "My Maserati does 185" territory.

    PS. Here's some news on the lens front. The new Sony telephotos apparently have terrific auto focus (as tested with A9), which should mean that heavy cinema lenses can also handle the task.

    Quote Originally Posted by NorBro View Post
    puredrifting, yes, you make a valid point.

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    Totally Usable Mod Stephen Mick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by puredrifting View Post
    I hasten to say, the Reckoning oWe may get to the point where there are only one or two new cameras per year introduced, if that and all of the ancillary gear like grip, lighting and audio will undoubtedly slow down too.

    Do you mean we might actually have to talk more about filmmaking and craft? Please, let it be so.
    Stephen Mick
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    weareskylark.com


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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul F View Post
    Yes, the mania is over. Everyone has what they need (well, there's always something we want). Moore's law has caught up to our desires in the camera department. That's good.
    Regarding Moore's Law, there is a growing realization in the semi-conductor industry that Moore's Law is coming to an end:
    https://www.technologyreview.com/s/6...dead-now-what/
    https://www.cnet.com/news/moores-law...s-at-ces-2019/

    The technical version of the law, which is that the number of transistors in an integrated circuit doubles every 24 months, seems to have already slowed. There have been increasing challenges in switching to smaller production processes, and everyone kind of expected that the laws of physics would bring about the end of Moore's Law at some point. Even Gordon Moore himself said in 2015 that he didn't see Moore's Law surviving the next decade.

    The more colloquial version of Moore's Law, that computing power will continue to grow at an exponential rate, may also be in trouble. You might imagine that even though the increases in transistor density have slowed down, the semi-conductor manufacturers would find new and creative ways to increase computing power. But so far this hasn't really happened. Intel and others have struggled to keep producing new processors that are significantly faster than their predecessors. Sure, they might add more processing cores, but the amount of compute power in each core has not been increasing very quickly.

    So, from this perspective, it's not that Moore's law has caught up with our camera desires. Instead, the end of Moore's law has made it difficult for camera makers to give us the same kind of dramatic, year-over-year performance improvements that we've enjoyed since the start of digital imaging.

    I don't think we've fully felt the effects of the end of Moore's Law yet, but it's going to have a pretty broad impact across a lot of different fields.


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    Moore’s pedestrian law soon to be blown into the weeds: https://www.sciencealert.com/google-...an-your-laptop (not the cannabis weeds the other kind)

    We still need the 10-bit 16-stop DR global shutter Venice Venus Color A7S III with night vision bat eye animal and alien AI AF to call it quits in the camera space.

    In preparation for this topic ending event we’re pivoting to more serious things like comedy.


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    Even though we have a lot and truly almost everything now, there is still so much improvement that's necessary.

    All of these cameras are either missing one critical feature or something is extremely inferior the way it works or is implemented. It's like they do it on purpose.

    High framerates at high resolutions are also desperately needed and it seems like no one but RED has even scratched the surface. (Excluding specialty systems.)


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    Senior Member puredrifting's Avatar
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    Its funny, I was talking to a client on a shoot the other day exactly about this because she's noticed the same thing. For the first time in my multi-decade career, I literally have everything I want or need in the produciton space, all of the stuff that I couldn't afford before is now affordable

    A camera
    B camera
    Lenses - I'm mystified to say I have 15 lenses! Who needs 15 lenses??!? Nikons, Canons, Fujinons, how the hell did I acquire 15 lenses? And this is after selling off half a dozen Nikons and a few Canons.
    motion control slider
    gimbal
    drone
    C camera (iPhone 8 Plus)
    gimbal for C camera
    Go Pros
    All of the grip and lighting I need for my work
    Shotgun
    Hypercardioid
    Four wired lavs
    Wireless lav set
    Three Tascam DR-10L recorder
    Three more wired lavs for the Tascams
    Handheld setup for B camera
    Shoulder Mount for A camera
    Eight tripods, two Millers, two Sachtlers, some Manfrottos and Benros too!?!
    2019 iMac
    2011 MBP that still works and is fine for downloading media
    Plenty of Cfast 2.0, SD cards for cameras
    Two 12TB Raids, One 16TB RAID

    I literally don't need ANYTHING. And it's an amazing feeling, very similar to the feeling I had when I paid off the last of my consumer debt, it's freeing.

    The Production industry had better do their homework and start INNOVATING again because there are a LOT of buyers out there like me in the same position, we have everything we want or need to do pro level work. They are going to have to come up with something truly innovative and groundbreaking to get me to spend any money on any new gear for years, I think for at least 3-5 years, possibly longer? As Paul F alluded to, they have boxed themselves into a corner with the Digital Video Revolution. Everything is too good, too cheap and too accessible. How do you continue to sell new products to a market that is saturated and actually shrinking in monetary supply because budgets continue to shrink incessantly? HDR, FF and idiotic resolution wars aren't doing it. They'd better get it together or we will see the giants topple. Wouldn't that be funny if in a few years, Canon, Sony and Panasonic are out of the pro video business and all that are left are a bunch of no name Chinese makers duking it out to nail those HUGE $2,000.00 top of the line pro camera sales? Sounds far fetched right? But that's where the market still seems to be heading, the march to the bottom.
    It's a business first and a creative outlet second.
    G.A.S. destroys lives. Stop buying gear that doesn't make you money.


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    Another sign that our field is maturing is that I can just reply to new threads with links to my old comments, http://www.dvxuser.com/V6/showthread...post1986635042.

    There are a few things that I still await and still some room for manufacturers to distinguish themselves:

    1. Uncompressed RAW recording. The new CFexpress standard makes this possible in camera, even at 4K and high frame rates. The advantage is peace of mind, knowing that: (a) I could not have chosen a better codec. I don't agonize over the bitrate or fiddle with menus choosing it. I just always record uncompressed RAW. (2) I don't have to worry about my footage being unreadable in a few decades. The technology is here, we're just waiting for prices to fall. 1 hour of 4K RAW is a terabyte. When a 1TB CFexpress card is $50, we can stop using camera codecs.

    2. Global shutter. Fast read-outs have improved things, but when it is finally purely global then we won't have to ponder special circumstances.

    3. Ergonomics, simpler controls, longer battery life. Whenever a thread turns toward the future of cameras, people joke about some mind-reading flying camera with lasers. But my ideal is always a return to the straightforward simplicity of the original Leica. My ideal is not more but less, and the controls that are left are so well-designed that the connection from my brain, through my hands, to the camera is transparent.
    Last edited by combatentropy; 06-14-2019 at 10:45 PM.


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