Thread: Canon layoffs

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    Or, as 7III and 7SII are currently being sold at the same $2,000 price, Sony is waiting to clear out the SII inventory first.

    As to SIII, it'd be hard for it to go above $2,500, as there'd be further improvement on RIII too (I assume RIV) and that is likely to stick at around $3,000 (with the flagship A9 off a cool grand from its $4,500 original).

    Now, I know I made a similar prediction about GH-5 (about $400 too low) but there are currently major price breaks all over the photo-video universe.


     

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    Quote Originally Posted by DLD View Post
    Or, as 7III and 7SII are currently being sold at the same $2,000 price, Sony is waiting to clear out the SII inventory first.

    As to SIII, it'd be hard for it to go above $2,500, as there'd be further improvement on RIII too (I assume RIV) and that is likely to stick at around $3,000 (with the flagship A9 off a cool grand from its $4,500 original).

    Now, I know I made a similar prediction about GH-5 (about $400 too low) but there are currently major price breaks all over the photo-video universe.
    IMHO, if Sony doesn't up the specs for the lineup, only die hard Sony buyers will even consider it. 100Mbps for UHD is a joke in 2019.
    It's a business first and a creative outlet second.
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    Quote Originally Posted by puredrifting View Post
    IMHO, if Sony doesn't up the specs for the lineup, only die hard Sony buyers will even consider it. 100Mbps for UHD is a joke in 2019.
    The way it looks, this will be the Sony mirrorless full frame pyramid.

    A7III - $2,000
    ASIII - $2,500
    A7RIII/IV - $3,000
    A9/II - $3,500

    They're likely to look at pricing first and then figure out which features to include and which to cripple.


     

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    Quote Originally Posted by DLD View Post
    The way it looks, this will be the Sony mirrorless full frame pyramid.

    A7III - $2,000
    ASIII - $2,500
    A7RIII/IV - $3,000
    A9/II - $3,500
    By ASIII, did you mean A7SIII ?

    I think the A7SIII when it arrives is going to be priced higher than $2,500. I don't see Sony trying to compete against the Panasonic S1 price, so I'm expecting something like $3,000+ for A7SIII, which is the same price the A7SII was introduced at.

    Also the Sony A9 was introduced at $4,500 US, so I would expect to see similar pricing for a newer model. ( the current Sony pricing is discounted pricing )
    Last edited by TheDingo; 05-02-2019 at 10:19 AM.


     

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    The A7S II shipped for $3K at release. I'd be cool with $3.5K for the A7S III if they 'do it right' with no crippling (as noted earlier in this thread).

    I'm a fan of high quality products, especially build quality in addition to image quality. Thus if Leica were to address RS and AF (add PD elements, AI), I'd rather spend more to get that kind of camera (FF) vs. something like the X-T3, which produces great images but has weak audio preamps and comparatively cheap build quality to even Sony (mainly the LCD and VF). If Fuji were to add FF (mainly for stills) and bump the quality for a higher price, that would get my attention too! Panasonic needs to work on color science for skin tones and also add PD+AI AF. For any of these cameras: skin tones need to match or exceed Canon for stills. I've seen examples of A7x III raw graded against Canon and it's not far off (overall image quality is better due to superior sensor / lower noise and less artifacts). Many stills shooters have jumped to Sony for the A7 III / A7R III for the superior sensors and can deal with raw color in post.


     

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheDingo View Post
    ... Also the Sony A9 was introduced at $4,500 US, so I would expect to see similar pricing for a newer model. ( the current Sony pricing is discounted pricing )
    The new FF models - from EOS RP to R to S1 to Z6 - are all being discounted off their introductory price primarily, one has to assume, due to the slipping sales. And, with the quality of the new smartphone cameras, the sales are likely to slip even further. Which means that the production lines are churning out product that no one is buying. And this leads to both discounting and layoffs.

    This is a year and a half old news piece but it didn't seem to get much play at the time.

    Due to the drastic contraction of digital camera sales resulting from consumers' changing habits, leading Japanese digital camera maker Nikon announced on Monday it was shutting down its plant in Wuxi, East China's Jiangsu province.

    Nikon Imaging (China) Co Ltd (NIC) was established in Wuxi in 2002 and was responsible for the manufacturing of digital cameras and lens units. The Japanese camera maker has two other digital camera production bases in Japan and Thailand.

    According to the company's announcement, the Wuxi plant stopped operation mainly due to the rise of smartphones.

    "The compact camera market has been shrinking rapidly, leading to a significant decrease in the operating rate at NIC and creating a difficult business environment," the announcement said.
    http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/busines...t_33903511.htm

    They're going to be blaming the smartphones, which reminds me of many of my former employers blaming the internet for the closure of the brick&mortar stores. But the key is that the incoming mobile phone models do what the older couldn't, they can match the performance of many an ILC. And that's bad news for the Big Four and the Small Three.

    FWIW, this came out on F-Stoppers last week. Ruminations similar to those in this thread.

    https://fstoppers.com/originals/dead...te-dust-351622


    Quote Originally Posted by jcs View Post
    The A7S II shipped for $3K at release. I'd be cool with $3.5K for the A7S III if they 'do it right' with no crippling (as noted earlier in this thread)....
    This is where the corporate steps in. Do they want a new FS-7III or FS-5III? Or do they make it in the DSLR (DSLM by now) form? And at what price point do they separate those lines? At $3,500 or $5,500? And, if either S1 or Z6 can deliver a ProRes Raw to an external recorder for under three grand combined, how many people will pay two more grand for a stripped down FS-5III or FS-7III? Or, do they just make A7SIII for $2,500 and cripple some internal features, so one'd also have to get a Ninja or Shogun for the ProRes Raw?

    And what does Canon do? Keep the Cinema series in the EF mount or move it to the R? R seems to have more potential and they can give away the EF-to-R adapters but there are so many EF lenses out in the wild, they can't just drop the series. Or do they make swappable mounts?

    And how do they project the market overall? Canon seems to be the most pessimistic and yet is now openly admitting that they have likely underestimated the degree and the depth of the collapse. And, in the world of such uncertainty, they need to remain as flexible as possible. And then some.

    PS. Smartphone sales are also topping out as the replacements don't seem to be as urgent as they were in the prior years. On top of that, newer models from the Chinese like Alcatel can deliver a pretty decent quality for a very low price (it's the same trend - the processing power is greater, the screen, the OS and the cameras are good enough and the price is right) Which also means major discounts and price drops. Or, in case of Apple, a foray into a streaming business because they also see the writing on the wall.


     

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    So, some early/premature/completely false rumors have A7SIII as an 8K camera. It'd be a departure from the low MPX/high sensitivity concept of the first two A7S models. But Sony does have several 8K sensors. The one being bandied about here is IMX 335 with 36 MPX (there's also a "stills-first" sensor with 60 MPX, known as IMX 551)


     

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    "This is where the corporate steps in. Do they want a new FS-7III or FS-5III? Or do they make it in the DSLR (DSLM by now) form? And at what price point do they separate those lines? At $3,500 or $5,500?"
    Still (pun intended) there are inherent differences. "Give" FS versions more video production features and connectivity (dedicated and assignable buttons, XLRs, zoom rocker(s), SDI and timecode i/o without an add on back plate.


     

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    I'd love to see where the market is in six and twelve months. A lot of predictions going on here and elsewhere, but we are in uncharted waters now, anything could happen. It's interesting how our fortunes as video oriented people, have become inexorably tied to the failure or success of the still camera industry. if you only work on union, crewed camera shows with Arris, REDs and Venices, little of this affects you but for those of us a rung or two down the ladder, this stuff is a huge factor in what we will be able to buy in a year or two, even if you don't use mirrorless or DSLRs, these decisions are affecting cameras like the C300 MKII, C200, EVA 1, FS7 MKII, etc.
    It's a business first and a creative outlet second.
    G.A.S. destroys lives. Stop buying gear that doesn't make you money.


     

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gweilo66 View Post
    ... Still (pun intended) there are inherent differences. "Give" FS versions more video production features and connectivity (dedicated and assignable buttons, XLRs, zoom rocker(s), SDI and timecode i/o without an add on back plate.
    Off the early rumors, Sony intends to hit a home run with this, so they might indeed make A7SIII their flagship (over A9 and the 60 MPX A7RIV) and release it as a slightly smaller, much cheaper and yet a better specc'ed camera than a C200. That's your technological leap forward in a nutshell.

    Which means my predictions from yesterday are already wrong.

    Quote Originally Posted by puredrifting View Post
    I'd love to see where the market is in six and twelve months. A lot of predictions going on here and elsewhere, but we are in uncharted waters now, anything could happen. It's interesting how our fortunes as video oriented people, have become inexorably tied to the failure or success of the still camera industry. if you only work on union, crewed camera shows with Arris, REDs and Venices, little of this affects you but for those of us a rung or two down the ladder, this stuff is a huge factor in what we will be able to buy in a year or two, even if you don't use mirrorless or DSLRs, these decisions are affecting cameras like the C300 MKII, C200, EVA 1, FS7 MKII, etc.
    Sony is likely to repeat their A7SII experiment and make a cheapo horror flick shot entirely on A7SIII. Try to budget an Alexa Mini/Mini LF after that.

    So, adding to my trend count, it looks like 8K is tagging along the Full Frame lead-in. Which makes sense, obviously.

    PS. IMX335 sensor looks to be made available "off-the-shelf", as it were. So, much like with S1/Z6/A7II, there ought to be plenty of copycats down the road. And 36MPX will be plenty sufficient for stills too, especially if there's enough processing for the S1/S1R 4X type pixel shift to attain a 144 MPX resolution. And 8K should be the place where the photo meets video in one sweet union.


     

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