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    #21
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    At the introduction of HDTV, the goals were more clear. We understood the drive for the convergence of display panels, broadcast, codecs, optical disk, media players, gaming consoles and camcorders. 720p/1080i was cohesive. That's not happening this time. The 4k products are coming, but without the synergy.


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    #22
    Senior Member adkimery's Avatar
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    There was synergy w/HD? I remember it being a typical chicken/egg problem with SD still being firmly entrenched while HD suffered a series of false starts. Not to mention an aspect ratio change, a plethora of new 'standards' in terms of frame sizes and frame rates and the switch from analog to digital broadcast happening at the same time. To me HD was a hot mess in the beginning but with 4K basically the only thing changing is size of the image.


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    #23
    Senior Member Nektonic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Roper View Post
    At the introduction of HDTV, the goals were more clear. We understood the drive for the convergence of display panels, broadcast, codecs, optical disk, media players, gaming consoles and camcorders. 720p/1080i was cohesive. That's not happening this time. The 4k products are coming, but without the synergy.
    Yep, so far no 4K Ultra HD media format to take Blu-ray's place (let alone 4K streaming being common either). Also, Xbox One and PS4 are even struggling with putting out full 1080p games. Which shouldn't be that much of an issue since they are supposed to be much more powerful than the Xbox 360 and PS3. Of course, many of the games on those systems were not even full 720p either.

    I predict four to five more years before 4K begins making any sort of dent in regular 1080p HD sets and Blu-ray. By then we should have some sort of 4K media solution for distribution (streaming or maybe the last physical media format after DVD/BR), as well as the successors to the Xbox One and PS4 looming on the horizon.


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    #24
    Senior Member adkimery's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nektonic View Post
    I predict four to five more years before 4K begins making any sort of dent in regular 1080p HD sets and Blu-ray. By then we should have some sort of 4K media solution for distribution (streaming or maybe the last physical media format after DVD/BR), as well as the successors to the Xbox One and PS4 looming on the horizon.
    Both the Xbone One and the PS4 will output UHD video, they just won't do 4K games (I'd expect the next gen of consoles to last at least as long as the current gen). I agree that distribution is still very early in the development stages but Sony has a 4K streaming service and Netflix said it plans to start rolling out 4K streaming next year. I think too that we are at least 5yrs out from UHD/4K really going main stream.


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    #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by adkimery View Post
    Both the Xbone One and the PS4 will output UHD video, they just won't do 4K games (I'd expect the next gen of consoles to last at least as long as the current gen). I agree that distribution is still very early in the development stages but Sony has a 4K streaming service and Netflix said it plans to start rolling out 4K streaming next year. I think too that we are at least 5yrs out from UHD/4K really going main stream.
    Has PS4 / xbox1 announced UHD codec(s) support besides HEVC? How about XAVC or RAW? HEVC (H.265) is for now primarily hardware encoding for live and broadcast and PS4 is included in that plan for online streaming, but if lacking XAVC codec support (h.264) then file based 4k doesn't get supported at the rollout.

    5 yrs out may be an accurate estimate for adoption of UHD into mainstream coexistence, but fundamentally it has a problem of justifying the need for more pixels matched with sales either for discriminating users who want large panel display sizes, or watch on smaller ones from very close. Already it's being pitted against HD OLED with many preferring the higher quality HD. If that drives the perception among consumers that UHD is not needed, the uptake is bound to be affected.


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    Quote Originally Posted by David Jimerson View Post
    How about explaining it to an artist who wants the best aesthetic display? I think engineers are the all-around wrong guys to ask.
    I think smearing engineers, or any class of people for that matter, is just wrong. Pissing off engineers is counter productive; we need engineers to solve the problems.

    Who knows more about the technology than the people who invented it? The people who build it? The people who design the factories, who design the machines in the factories? At least the engineers have a clue about what your "best aesthetic display" might translate to, might be able to quantify it, have a clue about how to make it happen, and have a clue about what the biggest bang for the buck is going to be to get your to your goal.

    We didn't get plasma displays because an artist wanted it. We got plasma displays because engineers were trying to create the "best aesthetic display" they could, and plasma technology turned out to be scalable enough and inexpensive enough in quantity. The fact that plasma is being killed off isn't because it's not the "best aesthetic display"; one can certainly make the argument that for most applications plasma is still the best display technology. But LCD is sufficient in the collective mind of the marketplace, and cheaper.


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    #27
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    I bet 4k will be here fairly soon with hardcore PC gamers. I haven't been following PC gaming in a long time, but last I checked 2.5k was starting to really take off.


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    #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Roper View Post
    Has PS4 / xbox1 announced UHD codec(s) support besides HEVC? How about XAVC or RAW?
    That I do not know.

    5 yrs out may be an accurate estimate for adoption of UHD into mainstream coexistence, but fundamentally it has a problem of justifying the need for more pixels matched with sales either for discriminating users who want large panel display sizes, or watch on smaller ones from very close. Already it's being pitted against HD OLED with many preferring the higher quality HD. If that drives the perception among consumers that UHD is not needed, the uptake is bound to be affected.
    Are the companies making HD OLED sets the same companies that are/will be making 4K sets? Probably, as there aren't that many companies that make displays so unless there is 'format war' between HD OLED makers and 4K makers then I don't think a problem will arise. To help move HD adaption forward consumer electronics companies stopped making SD products and I think they'll eventually stop making HD products to help the adaption of 4K. Discriminating users don't make up a very large percentage of the buying population so my money is with the marketing departments and their ability to continually sway the masses that more is always better. ;)

    4K has none of the baggage nor technical short comings that 3D has so I see it (4K) as a much easier sell.


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    #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by DBP View Post
    I bet 4k will be here fairly soon with hardcore PC gamers. I haven't been following PC gaming in a long time, but last I checked 2.5k was starting to really take off.
    PC Perspective tested the low cost Seiki 50" and 39" 4K UHD TVs with games.


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    #30
    Senior Member Thomas Smet's Avatar
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    The move from SD to HD was fueled by a heck of a lot more than just resolution and pixels. It was the move from analog to digital, it was the move to multiple channels compressed through a single pipe, it was the move from decades of basically the same format and standard.

    Just like the move from VHS to DVD was more than just an issue of pixel quality. It was about so many factors to make the experience more enjoyable.

    4k has none of that. It is just throwing more pixels at people without any of the exciting other benefits. All the other annoying issues with TV are now history for the most part. What is there to get the consumer excited? More pixels? Good luck with that sell. And the world wonders why TV manufactures have to start laying people off because sales are down. At least 3d was a somewhat neat thing for most people with a wow factor. Where is the wow with 4k? I can't think of anybody that will walk into a Best Buy and replace their already awesome 1080p display with something I doubt Best Buy will even manage to make look good in the store. If anybody does buy into it more than likely it will be because they were duped into it by some sales goon at Best Buy.

    Companies are trying to push changes too quickly for consumers and they are losing massive amounts of cash because of it. Most people finally replaced their VHS collection with DVD and then a couple of years later were told to now replace that with Blu-ray. Now they will be told to move to 4k. Not going to happen very quickly and it will be a niche just like 3D for awhile.


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