NAB 06 Predictions?

[redindian]

[In under <10K prosumer market]

JVC:Improved HD100 with no SSE, better battery & lens

SONY: 24p some sort of HD cam

more and more solidstate cameras...

[Barry_Green]

I'd take that bet.

No way will JVC introduce a followup to the HD100. They'll bundle it with the optional lens maybe, or bundle it with IDX batteries, but the basic HD100 unit is here to stay for a while. SSE will forever be part of the nature of having used two processors to read out the signal; as long as they stick with that chipset, the potential will always be there, which is kind of what their FAQ says. They'd have to go with a whole new design to get rid of SSE, and they're not going to do that until they've recovered the R&D of having developed this system.

Sony: no way. They've already pretty much said what they're going to do, which is HDCAM XD in 1/2". That's what they'll be showing. Plus a new HDV deck which takes large tapes, etc. Maybe some sort of clamshell field HDV deck. But no replacement for the Z1. Remember the Z1 is barely a year old, it hit the market almost a year ago to the day. They're not going to replace it or supersede it any time soon. And no way will they add 24p to it.

They may introduce a shoulder-mount DSR250-style Z1, but if so, it'll still be the same interlaced imaging system. No 24P under $10k from Sony, I'd be flabbergasted and gobsmacked if they delivered that.

I predict no new DV cameras from anybody.

If there's any big surprises from anybody, it would probably be along the lines of someone introducing a viable 1080/50p system. Don't know of anyone even working on that (other than RED).

The big news is going to be the unveiling of Red, Infinity, the new 2/3" JVC and Panasonics, and seeing XDCAM HD in action. Outside chance of a DSR250-style shoulder-mount HDV from Sony, but not a lot of different functionality, basically a repackaged interlaced Z1.

Hoping beyond hope that NAB will bring an HVX Andromeda mod from reel-stream, and an HD Rack from Serious Magic.

Those are my bets anyway.

[ChuckS]

It will be in Vegas :violent5:

[mikkowilson]

There will be "video equipment and stuff".

[ChuckS]

Booth Babes:banned:

[HVXguy]

Booth Babes:banned:

What features would you like to see in Booth Babes 06'???:love4:

[Emanuel]

They may introduce a shoulder-mount DSR250-style Z1, but if so, it'll still be the same interlaced imaging system. No 24P under $10k from Sony, I'd be flabbergasted and gobsmacked if they delivered that.To get 24p at post from an interlaced 50i signal isn't it the same -- result?

[CineAlta]

I predict no new DV cameras from anybody.

Darn. I was kinda hoping for a "DVC100C" or "DVX200" with native 16:9 chips, a 13x lens and maybe 14-bit converters, at the $4K price-point.

[Ralph Oshiro]

NBCshooter's NAB2006 PREDICTIONS:
Prices in BOLD are from published manufacturer data, everything else is only my GUESS!

Sony:
PDW-F330 1/2" XDCAM HD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $22,000 (street) including a (17:1?) Canon autofocus/manual lens.
PDW-F350 1/2" XDCAM HD (variable frame-rate) . . . . .$25,800 MSRP (body only).
SONY WILL PREVIEW A MOCK-UP OF A 2/3" XDCAM HD HIGH-DATARATE CAMERA ($40K+) FOR DELIVERY IN 2007.

JVC:
HD7000 2/3" CMOS ProHD shoulder-mount . . . . . . . . . $27,950 MSRP including a lens (as yet unidentified).
JVC WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANYTHING IN BETWEEN THE HD100 and HD7000.

Panasonic:
HPC2000 2/3" DVCPRO HD P2 shoulder-mount . . . . . . .$28,500 MSRP (body only).
PANASONIC WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY 1/2" CAMERAS.

Thomson/Grass Valley:
Infinity 2/3" multi-format shoulder-mount . . . . . . . . . .$21,999 MSRP (body only) + $1,800 24P board option shipping 3Q 2006

RED Digital Camera Company:
RED mock-up . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $25,000 w/out I/O, storage, lens, shipping 4Q, 200?

What'd I forget?

[D_and_G]

Will the HPC2000 have a mount for 35mm cinestyle lenses or Zeiss DigiPrimes ?


And :

RED 35mm chip PRO everything...................$18,000 ?


I also predict spontaneous gambling to win enough to buy a RED camera. :thumbsup:

[Ralph Oshiro]

Will the HPC2000 have a mount for 35mm cinestyle lenses or Zeiss DigiPrimes?All modern broadcast cameras have the same Sony B4 bayonet mount. I think Century Optics makes a C-mount-to-B4 adapter.

[Ralph Oshiro]

RED 35mm chip PRO everything...................$18,000?I highly doubt that RED will ship for anything less than $40K or $50K. I don't see how they could do it for less. I don't know what they think "affordable" is at this level of the game. Sure, they could come out with RED for say, $30K or $35K, but with glass ($12K), that's still out of most our reaches.

[Emanuel]

Sony:
PDW-F330 1/2" XDCAM HD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$22,000 (street) including a (17:1?) Canon autofocus/manual lens.NBCshoother where you find these numbers? Comparing european prices, right?

JVC:
HD7000 2/3" CMOS ProHD shoulder-mount . . . . . . . . . $27,950 MSRP including a lens (as yet unidentified).
JVC WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANYTHING IN BETWEEN THE HD100 and HD7000.What's your bet if the street price will go as same F330 street price range?

1/2" Sony's HD synthetic colors CineAlta-style@35megabits or 2/3" JVC@25megabits? (1080i)

[D_and_G]

Well, you have a better grasp on that than me.

Maybe it's wishful thinking, but Jim did say that it would be within reach.

Hope springs eternal. :beer:

[AppliedVisual]

Well, you have a better grasp on that than me.

Maybe it's wishful thinking, but Jim did say that it would be within reach.

Hope springs eternal. :beer:

But that's just the thing... Jim and his crew have said that it will be "affordable" and "within reach" of us DV and low-cost HD crowd. A lot of people keep betting on the $20K pricepoint, but I haven't seen any solid indication it will be that cheap. I really do hope that they can sell it that cheap! But reality keeps kicking me in the side of the head and I'm betting it will be AT LEAST $45K for the body only. Still need glass and something to record to (a nice fiber channel RAID or something).

And I would say that $50K to $75K for a usable RED setup is "within reach". Damn expensive for what I do, but I'm sure I could afford to rent one here and there for those special projects.

[imgentertainment@mac]

I think the big thing in camera will be Red, But I don't even want to think of a price. Logic says it would be allot. But if you could make it for cheep and sale it for cheap you might make more money that way. Instead of saleing 6,000 cameras for 45,000 you could sale 150,000 for 10,000 but who knows. Any way I think the big thing will be the new FCP. I'm not going to say what people are reporting of it having but I am going to say that it will change everything and AVID is going to have a hard time. Getting use to the pressure of a real competitor.

[Emanuel]

Instead of saleing 6,000 cameras for 45,000 you could sale 150,000 for 10,000 but who knows.Jim Jannard, did you hear that?

[AshG]

DOesnt matter how many you can sell, you just have to price yourself in the market and let the features sell the camera. If a camera costs you $20K to make, you cant sell it for $10K. It is more than just the parts, it is recouping your R&D as well as paying your overhead, etc. Jim has not built his rep on low cost, it has been built with cutting edge product, uncompromised in quality and ingenuity. I bet you he would rather release a revolutionary $50K camera than a great $10K camera.

I mean, couldnt Panny sell a lot more Varicams if they were $10k? I think that is the market Red is aimed at, Vari and CineAlta users and renters. Nothing else would make sense. Why would you incorporate $50K of workflow into a $10K camera? It WILL be revolutionary and I am sure it will be awesome, I will rent one to play with for sure but lets be realistic... the XLH1 is $9K... RED will be a multiple of that.



ash =o)

[filmmaker1977]

What's the problem ash? If RED is here it's why it will be indie affordable. If not, why would it be? To give promises that can't pay off! I believe in Jannard. He said that he can't tease just to say: No! It's not for you, indies! But to the mainstream. It doesn't make sense, we are his people! And he should conquer his place in the History of Cinema and of the Motion Picture Technology. He's like Edison! Digital is democracy. And he is the Edison of the Digital Cinema.

Do you know what Francis Ford Coppola predicted? (Hearts of Darkness) I can say in two words: Jim Jannard

[filmmaker1977]

BTW I will not buy the HVX just because I want the RED camera. And I'm not the only one. There are a lot of people here that is thinking the same. Can you figure out the damage to HVX sales? I just know six others like me. And more.. waiting for the NAB only to know the RED price that we are waiting as..
..G R E E N it can be.

If not, think like Canon. If XLH1 it is the only HD camera of the market, why aren't they at high end broadcast? If they are in the lenses market? Because this camera it's the only HD model available. If Sony (this manufacturer brand didn't begin from the worldwide market? With a broadcast product but affordable to everyone.. Sony, do you follow? Like sonny, the son that all we want to have..), Panasonic/JVC will go to the market with just one model, they will sell it as affordable as possible. Why? Because they were wanting to be a case of sales success. And not like other vapourware Kinetta-style. Or one more DIY project. To the geeks at dvinfo.net. To digital filmmaking or just to fun like many others that spending their time posting? How many filmmakers are there? 20,000?!

if you could make it for cheep and sale it for cheap you might make more money that way. Instead of saleing 6,000 cameras for 45,000 you could sale 150,000 for 10,000

006,000 x 45,000 = 0,270,000,000
150,000 x 10,000 = 1,500,000,000

5,55555555555555...x more!

I'm sorry ash but you are thinking like the older ones. And not like the successful and rich(er) ones. If Bill Gates had been thinking like you, we wouldn't be here! :) I believe in Jim Jannard.

[im.thatoneguy]

FilmMaker, you aren't thinking revolutionairy enough.

$1 x 100,000,000,000 = $100,000,000,000
150,000 x $10,000 = $1,500,000,000
6,000 x $45,000 = 0,270,000,000

The math was so simple! I can't believe Pannasonic didn't figure it out before, they just needed to charge a dollar for the Varicam!

And it doesn't matter how much faith you have in Jim, the people who need our prayers are his engineers.

[Ralph Oshiro]

BTW I will not buy the HVX just because I want the RED camera. And I'm not the only one. There are a lot of people here that is thinking the same. Can you figure out the damage to HVX sales? I just know six others like me.I don't mean to rain on Jannard's parade but . . .

Announcing plans for a product, and building a working protoype, and then building a shipping product could take years. I know Jim has a lot of resources and a terrific entreprenuerial vision, but I'd be surprised if there were shipping product anytime before NAB 2007, and perhaps not until NAB 2008. Again, if Jim can do it (and maybe he can, with his resources and his inspiration, which is truly admirable), I'll be the first in line to get one (or get NBC to buy one for us). But I wouldn't hold my breath for an entirely new camera design to come to fruition within anything less than 18 months. I'm getting impatient just waiting for this April's NAB so I can finally make my "big" camera decision and buy SOMETHING, immediately after NAB 2006!

[filmmaker1977]

FilmMaker, you aren't thinking revolutionairy enough.

$1 x 100,000,000,000 = $100,000,000,000
150,000 x $10,000 = $1,500,000,000
6,000 x $45,000 = 0,270,000,000

The math was so simple!It's not my math..But if you could make it for cheep and sale it for cheap you might make more money that way. Instead of saleing 6,000 cameras for 45,000 you could sale 150,000 for 10,000 but who knows.But any entrepreneur can get figure numbers, he needs to..






I can't believe Pannasonic didn't figure it out before, they just needed to charge a dollar for the Varicam!I already gave the answer:If not, think like Canon. If XLH1 it is the only HD camera of the market, why aren't they at high end broadcast? If they are in the lenses market? Because this camera it's the only HD model available. If Sony (this manufacturer brand didn't begin from the worldwide market? With a broadcast product but affordable to everyone.. Sony, do you follow? Like sonny, the son that all we want to have..), Panasonic/JVC will go to the market with just one model, they will sell it as affordable as possible.They are since a long time ago in the business. It's not the same than one company that is looking for a place in the industry and for success. As I said:Because they were wanting to be a case of sales success. And not like other vapourware Kinetta-style. Or one more DIY project. To the geeks at dvinfo.net. To digital filmmaking or just to fun like many others that spending their time posting?I don't believe that Jim Jannard is just a geek..






And it doesn't matter how much faith you have in Jim, the people who need our prayers are his engineers.As I said too, it's a question of V I S I O N like Hughes with the airplane transatlantic travels..

[Ralph Oshiro]

NBCshoother where you find these numbers? Comparing european prices, right?Most of those prices are straight from published press releases from the manufacturers themselves. The PDW-F330 street price is only my guess, based on typical street-price discount percentages taken from MSRP, and price-point positioning vis-a-vis other products in their line, competitor's products, and historical broadcast camera price points.

What's your bet if the street price will go as same F330 street price range? [The]1/2" Sony's HD synthetic colors CineAlta-style@35megabits or 2/3" JVC@25megabits? (1080i)Although I'm super attracted to a non-tape media camera (for time-lapse and other tape-wearing shooting), I would certainly give the JVC HD7000 a good hard look if it were priced similarly to the Sony F330. A huge reason I'm going to go with a full-sized camera is for the bigger CCDs, and I would much rather have a 2/3" CCD camera than the puny 1/2" CCD that the F330 has. What I didn't know until I did some quick fact-finding for this post, was that the JVC HD7000 (at least at one time) was stated by JVC to have a price of $27,950 WITH lens! I had thought that the $27K+ price tag was WITHOUT lens. If in fact, the HD7000 will have an MSRP of only $27,950 with a lens, that means it may street price out to something as low as $22K-$24K WITH lens. If the HD7000 prices head-to-head with the F330, I might be convinced to buy the JVC for the 2/3" CCDs alone.

[Jannard]

[QUOTE=NBCshooter]I don't mean to rain on Jannard's parade but . . .

...I wouldn't hold my breath for an entirely new camera design to come to fruition within anything less than 18 months.

Why?

Jim

[Stephen W]

[QUOTE=NBCshooter]

Why?

Jim

Because he doesn't believe in you like we do :Drogar-BigGrin(DBG)

[im.thatoneguy]

...or he's been around the block and hit by enough cars to have wisened up.

I believe in Jonathan, that doesn't mean I have a G35 in my hand yet. In fact, the reason I don't think the Red will hit its ambitious release date, is because Jim isn't going to let a half assed product out the door. The more I believe in a product, the later it is often released. In a well managed project time = quality.

[jaegersing]

... The more I believe in a product, the later it is often released.

Is this some kind of cause and effect? :)

Richard Hunter

[Stephen W]

Is this some kind of cause and effect? :)

Richard Hunter

So now we have someone to blame if it doesn't arrive on time :kali:

[Ralph Oshiro]

Why?Wow! Jim Jannard actually read and responded to my post! That's cool! If you can do that in less than 18 months, that would of course be terrific news!

[Ralph Oshiro]

. . . I don't think the Red will hit its ambitious release date . . .What is their ambitious release date? Has Jim mentioned a timeframe for shipping product?

[The Machinist]

I love how Jim pops into the thread and drops one word to switch things up.


It reminds me of those old testament bible stories when God would show up as a burning bush and say a few words and all of a sudden all the Israelites were leaving Egypt.

[D_and_G]

Jim, if you make this happen, you'll be right up there with Nikola Tesla (a personal hero of mine).

I hope you block some time to visit here after NAB,
like you won't have enough to deal with ;)

BTW, my bank account doesn't like being so full. Maybe your product can help that out. My money also doesn't like long release schedules, and keeps wanting to run to women. Don't ask me why :)




Cheers.

[accelv]

JVC has been showing a prototuype of the 2/3" camcorder for a couple of years now, but it will still be HDV 720P, right? Still the same issues with motion artifacts, panning judder, and 6 frame gop's?

[Barry_Green]

In 720p it will be HDV, yes.

But in 1080 they're talking about making their own new 1080 format, which would be full 1920x1080x4:2:2. Still MPEG-2 though. They get around the bandwidth limitations because their 1080 would record to a hard disk instead of to tape.

[Focus This!]

Red body only $9,999.

[Jack_Felis]

I predict they'll have free Oreos at the booth.

[jrv3034]

What is their ambitious release date? Has Jim mentioned a timeframe for shipping product?
He's said that they'll have a non-working mock-up in NAB, and hopes to have the finished camera ready and available by the end 2006, but makes no guarantees.

[Tzedekh]

I highly doubt that RED will ship for anything less than $40K or $50K. I don't see how they could do it for less. I don't know what they think "affordable" is at this level of the game. Sure, they could come out with RED for say, $30K or $35K, but with glass ($12K), that's still out of most our reaches.I suppose it pretty much comes down to how cheap the imagers are. They're not Sony or Panasonic, so they have no high end to protect, nor do they have an SD/entry-level HD low end to protect. Jim Jannard has more than hinted that the RED's price will be a surprise. $40k is a low price point relative to Sony's HDCAM systems, but hardly cheap enough to excite the members of this forum or dvinfo, where Jannard has also been active.

As to the glass costing $12K, well, used older Angenieux and Cooke zooms that are far cheaper ($5K or so) are not uncommon, and you could probably find some reasonably good Russian zooms for even less.

[joe 1008]

No expensive tapedrive, no complicated 3-chip-solution. This camera is going a different way. There might be a surprise.

[im.thatoneguy]

No expensive tapedrive, no complicated 3-chip-solution. This camera is going a different way. There might be a surprise.

The Dalsa Origin:

Single Chip, No Tapedrive, 4k sensor. 3k dollars a day.

The Red is following exactly in the footsteps of its competitors, just somehow cheaper.

[SPZ]

I believe Brokeback Mountain will win. :)

[imgentertainment@mac]

Well I look forward to it even if I can't buy one just yet. And if you are going to have oreos at the booth well you need to also get those little milk carrtons that you use to gett when you where in kindergarden

[Haakon]

The Dalsa Origin:

Single Chip, No Tapedrive, 4k sensor. 3k dollars a day.

The Red is following exactly in the footsteps of its competitors, just somehow cheaper.
You know, that's exactly what I was thinking, too, but he keeps making mention of the "modular" approach that will make it possible. The more I think about that as well, the more it makes sense.

Often times there are differences between models that probably cost little or nothing to implement but cause the price to differ greatly because of demand. Look at the two new XDCAM HD models from Sony - aside from the HD SDI out port, they are identical in every way except one offers variable framerate functionality at a cost of $9,000 more. That functionality is most likely just a software implementation that costs them nothing in physical parts over the "lesser" camera but they can charge for it because they know people want it. In fact, just a couple of years ago, some people had hacked Canon's popular Digital Rebel DSLR camera to re-enable features that were available in the similar but more expensive 10D camera but were simply "turned off" in the software.

With this approach, I am getting the impression that you will be buying the "RED" body basically just as the sensor and chipset, and from there you upgrade to whatever features you want. They don't have to include additional license fees for using a particular codec, because you'll be paying it yourself when you upgrade the camera with a DVCPROHD card (or whatever). The lenses are separate and removable, so they don't factor into the price of the camera either. You want variable framerates? Just buy the RED "variable framerate expansion upgrade" (let's hope that doesn't cost $9,000 ala the Sony), plug it in, and start shooting. And if you can't afford the entire buffet at the outset, at least you can rent the "extra features" on a per-shoot basis. That could make for a really interesting system. Anyway, this keeps the base price of the camera low and also allows for expansion LONG into the future, helping to keep your camera a worthwhile investment. Jim and Co. still make money, because you have to keep buying upgrades to keep current with advances in technology. But at least the camera doesn't get obsoleted in a year (like most others do).

I agree with you that it will still be amazing to see a 4K chipset delivered to the masses at a competitive pricepoint to what most people on this forum are able to afford, but I don't think he stands to gain much by coming to places like this and making suggestions that he wants the camera to be accessible for all of us just to turn around and surprise everyone with a camera that costs $100,000. The future will certainly be interesting...

[Tzedekh]

I agree with you that it will still be amazing to see a 4K chipset delivered to the masses at a competitive pricepoint to what most people on this forum are able to afford, but I don't think he stands to gain much by coming to places like this and making suggestions that he wants the camera to be accessible for all of us just to turn around and surprise everyone with a camera that costs $100,000.It might be a tough sell even at $25,000 (especially if that doesn't include the lens). People on this forum complain about the real cost of getting up and running with the HVX, and understandably so, given that for many $10,000 is a significant outlay, despite the fact that until now, a DVCProHD camera cost $70-100K. Likewise, a comparable 4K camera costs hundreds of thousands and $25,000 would be a relative steal, but it's still probably out of the price range of many if not most of the members of the forum. That's why I'm having a hard time understanding why it's being pitched to indy (and I mean ultra-low-budget) filmmakers. It's not like a $25,000 film camera, which could have a 20- to 30-year lifespan -- video technology is depreciated much, much more quickly, so rental prices are correspondingly higher.

[Haakon]

That's the point of the modular system, though. Unless you outgrow a 4K sensor in the next year, the body of the camera will last you a much longer time than most cameras today. You just upgrade the codec or the lens or whatever other part of the system you want to as the years go by and technology changes.

[Tzedekh]

That's the point of the modular system, though. Unless you outgrow a 4K sensor in the next year, the body of the camera will last you a much longer time than most cameras today. You just upgrade the codec or the lens or whatever other part of the system you want to as the years go by and technology changes.I understand that, but do the rental houses? Also, the $25,000 figure is, I assume, for a barebones system. A really usable system may be double that. A bargain compared with a Dalsa or Viper, but still pretty steep. Unless you're going for a theatrical distribution, 4K will be overkill probably for the next several years. Barry and others are making money with a $10K (with the fixin's) HVX and will be able to do so for a few years. As amazing as RED promises to be, it's not clear to me that it will be a reasonable purchase alternative for most forum members, unless it proves to be the last camera they'll need to buy for a long, long time.

[imgentertainment@mac]

It might be a tough sell even at $25,000 (especially if that doesn't include the lens). People on this forum complain about the real cost of getting up and running with the HVX, and understandably so, given that for many $10,000 is a significant outlay, despite the fact that until now, a DVCProHD camera cost $70-100K. Likewise, a comparable 4K camera costs hundreds of thousands and $25,000 would be a relative steal, but it's still probably out of the price range of many if not most of the members of the forum. That's why I'm having a hard time understanding why it's being pitched to indy (and I mean ultra-low-budget) filmmakers. It's not like a $25,000 film camera, which could have a 20- to 30-year lifespan -- video technology is depreciated much, much more quickly, so rental prices are correspondingly higher.


$25,000? Is this just a guess? Has the price been announced? I don't think that a 25,000 dollar number is wrong & I do think that this is an Indy film maker’s price. But I do think we are all going to be surprised. And Why not. We have been told that we are going to get something that doesn’t follow the norm. So that could be a cam for $10,000 or a 4k system for $50,000 the point is that we just don't know. And I can't wait to find out.

[Tzedekh]

$25,000? Is this just a guess? Has the price been announced?It's neither a guess (at least not on my part) nor the announced price. It's the high end of the "winning" predicted price range in a survey conducted over at dvinfo (not coincidentally, it's also the lowest price range).
I don't think that a 25,000 dollar number is wrong & I do think that this is an Indy film maker’s price.Maybe, but I still maintain that unless it has a long usable lifespan (like an Eclair NPR or Arriflex SR), it may prove too expensive for most indies to buy (or rent, if its rental rates are commensurate with those of other video cameras).