P2 Cards And Moore's Law

[BobDiaz]

Way back in the mid 60s, Dr. Moore published a paper regarding the increase in number of components in Integrated Circuits. Dr Moore predicted that at current rates, the number of components DOUBLES every 2 years. Now that the 60s, 70s, 80s and 90s are history, we can look back and see that Moore's prediction was correct, but a bit off on the timing. Overall, the doubling occurred in just 1.5 years. In some years, the doubling occurred in only 1 year. While the time period was less than what Dr Moore predicted, who would have guessed that it still continues even today? It should come as no surprise that Panasonic created the P2 recording system, they knew the impact that Moore's Law would have on their product line.

The time period may vary from one size to the next memory size, assume that it is 1.5 years before we see the next step in memory. Currently, 8GB is the largest P2 card offered today. This card consists of four 2GB SD memory cards. Already SamDisk is offering 4GB CompactFlash memory cards. (See link below.) This suggests that 4GB SD memory cards are close to becoming a reality.


http://www.sandisk.com/Products/Catalog%281024%29-SanDisk_Extreme_III_CompactFlash.aspx


Even if we assume that there's still a 1.5 year wait for 4GB SD cards, Panasonic should offer 16GB P2 Cards by or before Summer 2007. The next step up comes about 1.5 years later, on or before end of 2008/start 2009. At that point we'll see 32GB P2 cards. On or before summer 2010, 64GB P2 memory cards come out.

Thus anywhere from One year to 1.5 years from now, two 16GB P2 cards will give you: 32 Minutes at the highest data rate, 64 minutes at DVCPRO50 or 720@30p, and 80 minutes at 720@24p.

Two to Three years from now, two 32GB P2 cards will provide 64 minutes of record time at the highest data rate, 128 minutes at DVCPRO50 or 727@30p, and 160 minutes at 720@24p.

Roughly Three to 4.5 years from now, the maximum P2 memory size should be 64GB. Two 64GB cards would provide 128 minutes of record time at the highest data rate, 256 minutes at DVCPRO50 or 727@30p, and 320 minutes at 720@24p.

Beyond that, the next size memory will increase 2 times every 1 to 1.5 years. However, once P2 cards reach 128GB, 256GB, or 512GB we may not need all the extra recording time. Still, who knows, maybe by then, the P2 cameras will need the extra memory when they record HD at 4:4:4.

The future of P2 technology looks VERY good, but what about today? There are several approaches to today's memory limits.

(1) Rent the P2 Cards as needed until the larger cards come out.

(2) Use the FireStore Drive to hold the footage.

(3) Use LOTS of 4GB or 8GB Cards.

(4) Use 2 or 3 P2 cards and move the data into the P2 store drive.

(5) Use a limited number of P2 Cards and a Laptop with a PCMCIA Slot to move the files into the Laptop.

(6) Use a limited number of P2 Cards and a 1394 External Drive. When you are not shooting, the camera will operate in host mode and allow you to transfer the data to the External Drive.

(7) Just shoot to DV Tape until the larger P2 Cards come out.


There may be some other approach I missed and if I missed something, let me know with a posting. There is NO single answer for everyone; it all depends on the kind of work you do.


Bob Diaz

[mr._guiyotinne]

Not long ago i recall reading something about Samsung making a break in technology that might forward the arrival of bigger SD cards by, maybe, next year. So it could be faster than we think. ´Till they land on a P2 enclosure, that´s a different story.


EDITED: You forgot the Cineporter. That´s my option.

[Barry_Green]

As Mr. Guiyotinne said, Samsung's going to circumvent the whole thing. Panasonic's already tossing around the notion of 16gb P2 cards being introduced at NAB 2006. And Samsung made a huge leap in NAND technology that could see the first 32gb CF/SD cards on the market within a year. That could put the 128gb P2 card as close as maybe 18 months from now. 10 HOURS of 720/24p in the camera at once...

... but I bet it won't be cheap! ;)

[Dahopafilms]

... 10 HOURS of 720/24p in the camera at once...

... but I bet it won't be cheap! ;)

Now THAT could result in an interesting marketing approach. Panny gives away free HVX200A's (the "A" indicates that the dv tape drive has been removed) so they can sell more P2 cards.

Kinda like the multi-bladed razor approach used by Gillette (free razer, but ya gotta buy our $20 blades to put in 'em).

[steindj]

That could put the 128gb P2 card as close as maybe 18 months from now.

Oh, that would be wonderful.

[stabwound]

The problem with Moore's law is that it can't go on beyond a certain point.

I don't know if I can compare memory chips to Cpu chips, but Cpu's performance may have already hit a certain limit... they've been languishing around the 3 megaherz mark for the last couple of years.

Problems are heat and electron leakeage... the smaller and denser the chips the worse it gets. To get the chips to run faster you'd need water-cooler solutions.

Nowadays, you don't seem to hear about cpu megaherz going up... more like dual cores etc to crank up performance.

I realize memory chips ain't exactly like cpu chips... but there's a similiar limit somewhere.

Hopefully, I'm dead wrong about this.

[JerseyMike]

What if you could hook a mouse's brain up to some probes and plug it into the hvx? How many neurons do you think a mouse has? And just as important, how soon after plugging the probes into his brain would he die along with your day's work? Would the struggle from the squirming mouse (held in by tiny leather straps) cause noticeable vibration? Would the optical stabilization of the HVX be able to compensate for that?

Remeber the 80s? Remember when everyone said, "You'll never need more than 640K." I remember trying to add 384K and never getting my system to recognize the extended memory. Ok sorry, just felt like reminiscing since it's that time of year.

But seriously, I agree that we've hit a plateau with CPU speeds. My 3 GHz system is almost 3 years old and it still seems current, which is kind of scary/sad. I'd love to see CPUs become expandable, like memory, where you can just add more. I know it's not trivial. But just imagine how many CPUs Intel could sell if they let users add up to 16 Pentiums to a computer. And you know everyone would want impress their friends with more chips.

[Haakon]

I intend to offload to portable USB hard drives via a laptop on set.

[Jim Arthurs]

But seriously, I agree that we've hit a plateau with CPU speeds. My 3 GHz system is almost 3 years old and it still seems current, which is kind of scary/sad.

Ah, a plateau in one respect, but not in another... because the latest 3 GHz CPU's are dual core... effectively 1.8X as fast for programs designed to take advantage of them.

Hyperthreading was a friendly "challenge" and testbed by Intel for software programmers to start making their applications multi-threaded... it was a warm-up to true dual core. Unfortunately fewer than desired number of apps are effectively multi-threaded, but that's not the hardware guy's fault... the warning was given years ago...

My dual 3.0 Xeon is matched by my Pentium D's in brute rendering any day of the week. Each of the Xeon chips was $500 each, the dual core Pentium chips just over three hundred. The progress continues...

Jim Arthurs

[BobDiaz]

The problem with Moore's law is that it can't go on beyond a certain point.

I don't know if I can compare memory chips to Cpu chips, but Cpu's performance may have already hit a certain limit... they've been languishing around the 3 megaherz mark for the last couple of years.

Problems are heat and electron leakeage... the smaller and denser the chips the worse it gets. To get the chips to run faster you'd need water-cooler solutions.

Nowadays, you don't seem to hear about cpu megaherz going up... more like dual cores etc to crank up performance.

I realize memory chips ain't exactly like cpu chips... but there's a similiar limit somewhere.

Hopefully, I'm dead wrong about this.


No, sadly you are correct. Some are saying that around 2015 we may hit the uppper limit for Moore's Law and chip density. (This is only the guess of some experts, so do NOT take this statetement as fact.)

Even if 2015 is the end of Moore's Law, if every 2 years we see a 2x increase in memory sizes, that come to a 32x increase. (If it's less than that, the maximum memory size would be even larger.) 8GB x32 = 256GB !!!! That comes to over 4 hours at the maximum data rate PER P2 Card. I'd be VERY happy with that. So, even if Moore's Law reaches the limit in 10 years, we still will have more than enough memory for recording HD Video.

With a CPU, almost all the circuits on the chip are being clocked all the time. This results in a lot of heat at high clock speeds.

With memory, only the current active memory cells and all the address circuits are being clocked. The rest of the chip is generating VERY little heat. Unlike DRAM, the SD Memory Cards do NOT need a refrest cycle to hold the data, so we don't need to worry about time or power required for that task.


Bob Diaz

[sean90291]

How has Moore's Law applied to price? That is, has there been an equally steady and predictable reduction in technology cost to the consumer? I remember buying a 256 MB Sandisk SD card for a new digital camera and it cost $150!!! Now they're like $50. I'm hoping the P2 cards come down in price faster than tthey increase in size (though the two factors will probably be correlated).

[dregenthal]

Moore’s Law? I always thought the introduction of technology advancement was driven by those bean counters (most) manufacturers have who could predict how long they could maintain highest profits on current product before introducing it’s (competitive) replacement . . .

2 4gig P2's, P2 Store drive, and a CinePorter

[dregenthal]

. . . That could put the 128gb P2 card as close as maybe 18 months from now. 10 HOURS of 720/24p in the camera at once...
... but I bet it won't be cheap! ;)


You bet! By 2007 I should have enough equity in my house to take a second mortgage and buy one. Not certain how I’m going to feel handing “that” card off at the end of the day?

[P2metoo]

The missing part is memory increase so does the compression. Next year there will be more new compression comming in the market such as JPEG2000, MPEG4, H.264 etc. they will work harder to compress the video which will save the space on P2 card. Imagine 50M HD compress better then DVCPRO100 you doulble your 8gb time from 8min to 16 min just by changing the compression. Yes you need 64 bit OS with the 64 BIT pentium to process that fatter compression. But in the end consumer wins

[stabwound]

My dual 3.0 Xeon is matched by my Pentium D's in brute rendering any day of the week. Each of the Xeon chips was $500 each, the dual core Pentium chips just over three hundred. The progress continues...

Jim Arthurs

Hiya Jim:

Multiple cores are terrific in programs like 3d Max, where the extra cores are used for rendering.

Unfortunately, a lot of 3D math functions (say turning a 3D object) cannot be distributed between cores... so the work is done by one core.:cry:

For 3d construction/animation I'd probably want the fastest single core available, and send the job to a multicore computer for rendering.

[stabwound]

Even if 2015 is the end of Moore's Law, if every 2 years we see a 2x increase in memory sizes, that come to a 32x increase. (If it's less than that, the maximum memory size would be even larger.) 8GB x32 = 256GB !!!! That comes to over 4 hours at the maximum data rate PER P2 Card. I'd be VERY happy with that. So, even if Moore's Law reaches the limit in 10 years, we still will have more than enough memory for recording HD Video.


Bob Diaz

256 gigs in 2015?

Bob... by 2015 you would have donated your HVX200 to the Salvation Army... and your primary camera would be Jim Jannard's RED version 6 with a 16 megapixel imager....:evil:

You'll need a truckload of p2 cards.

[Barry_Green]

I remember buying a 256 MB Sandisk SD card for a new digital camera and it cost $150!!! Now they're like $50. I'm hoping the P2 cards come down in price faster than tthey increase in size (though the two factors will probably be correlated).

Well, here's a direct correlation for you -- 14 months ago the 4gb card was $1750. Today it's $650. That's almost the exact same % price drop as you quoted for the Sandisk SD card ($150 to $50). I would expect the 4gb card to be around $300 next Christmas, maybe even less, and the 8gb to be around $700-$800 at the same time.

[Barry_Green]

Not certain how I’m going to feel handing “that” card off at the end of the day?
I'd never hand any card off at the end of the day, unless the producer brought it with him/her.

[BobDiaz]

256 gigs in 2015?

Bob... by 2015 you would have donated your HVX200 to the Salvation Army... and your primary camera would be Jim Jannard's RED version 6 with a 16 megapixel imager....:evil:

You'll need a truckload of p2 cards.


No, by 2015 my HVX-200 will sit on the shelf next to my Panasonic D5000 Camera that is currently sitting on the shelf. :laugh: In it's day, the D5000 was a great camera for the money (around $2,000) and I just can't bring myself to getting rid of it.

Once we start seeing the really big number in memory sizes, 1080@60p 4:4:4 recording becomes possible. I hope that by then Ultraviolet-Ray DVDs come out to hold all the data.


Bob Diaz