View Full Version : p2 price drops exponential or linear ?
microsupercosym
10-13-2005, 11:54 AM
I am no econ-major so I don't really know how everything works but, when the HVX is released and assuming a lot of people eat up 4 GB and 8 GB cards, would we possibly see a drop in price/ increase in capacity dependent on how fast the market is flooded with p2 buyers ? Right now it has taken a year to double capacity, would we possibly see this number influx greatly as more people buy HVX's w/ p2 ? I'm hoping by this upcoming summertime we will see 16 GB cards for 2K and 4GB cards for $500.
or.... do you think storage, etc. will drop slowly ?
I only ask because I plan on buying an HVX sans p2 because I can't afford that. But then I got to thinking, I'm going to have an HVX for a year without p2 and by that time I may already see an HVX200a on the market as Im buying my first p2 card and I bet at that time the HVX will have the new capabilities to wash George Lucas's dirty teeth or something.
thoughts ? emoticons ? :thumbsup:
harddrive
10-13-2005, 12:04 PM
I would have thought the cost of P2 cards is more linked to memory prices globally, rather than P2 users specifically. Hence an increased use of P2 is not likely to affect the amount of total memory sold by very much, and therefore prices.
In other words, the best guess for memory in general seems to be that costs per GB will continue falling at the rate they have for the last few years - halving year on year seems a good ball park figure.
Depends on whether demand is exponential or linear :D
Sorry, that wasn't much help, heh! I suspect only those who work at Panasonic have a rough idea of how this may work out based on their current sales and other products.
Isaac_Brody
10-13-2005, 12:20 PM
I wonder if todays article about chipmakers and price fixing will have any bearing on P2 prices.
Samsung to Pay $300 Million Fine for Price Fixing
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Filed at 1:31 p.m. ET
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Samsung, the world's largest maker of memory chips for computers and other electronic gadgets, has agreed to plead guilty to price fixing and pay a $300 million fine, U.S. officials said Thursday.
The penalty is the second-largest criminal antitrust fine ever and caps a three-year investigation into the largest makers of dynamic random access memory computer chips, a $7.7 billion market in the United States.
The guilty plea to the single felony charge by South Korea-based Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. and its U.S. subsidiary, Samsung Semiconductor Inc., was to be entered Thursday in U.S. District Court in San Francisco.
The government's acting antitrust chief, Thomas O. Barnett, said seven Samsung employees were not protected by the guilty plea, an indication they may individually face criminal antitrust charges.
''That's a decision for us to make moving forward,'' Barnett said. He added that prosecuting individuals -- not just companies -- in price-fixing cases is an important deterrent against similar abuses.
The Justice Department already has secured similar guilty pleas from two other companies and collected more than $345 million in fines.
''Price-fixing threatens our free market system, stifles innovation and robs American consumers of the benefit of competitive prices,'' Attorney General Alberto Gonzales said.
Samsung said in a statement the company ''strongly supports fair competition and ethical practices and forbids anti-competitive behavior.'' A spokeswoman, Chris Goodhart, declined to identify the seven employees or say whether they still worked for Samsung.
Samsung received grand jury subpoenas in connection with the investigation during 2002, and put aside $100 million late last year to pay potential criminal penalties.
Samsung's top competitor, Seoul-based Hynix, agreed earlier this year to plead guilty to price fixing and pay a $185 million fine. Last September, rival Infineon Technologies AG (http://www.nytimes.com/redirect/marketwatch/redirect.ctx?MW=http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/nyt-com/html-companyprofile.asp&symb=IFX) of Germany agreed to a $160 million fine. Another competitor, Micron Technology Inc. (http://www.nytimes.com/redirect/marketwatch/redirect.ctx?MW=http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/nyt-com/html-companyprofile.asp&symb=MU) of Boise, Idaho, has been cooperating with prosecutors and was not expected to face charges.
The government accused the companies of conspiring in e-mails, telephone calls and face-to-face meetings to fix prices of memory chips between April 1999 and June 2002. The chips are used in digital recorders, personal computers, printers, video recorders, mobile phones and many other electronics.
The government said the victims of the alleged price-fixing were Dell Inc., Compaq Computer Corp. (http://www.nytimes.com/redirect/marketwatch/redirect.ctx?MW=http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/nyt-com/html-companyprofile.asp&symb=HPQ), Hewlett-Packard Co. (http://www.nytimes.com/redirect/marketwatch/redirect.ctx?MW=http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/nyt-com/html-companyprofile.asp&symb=HPQ), Apple Computer Inc. (http://www.nytimes.com/redirect/marketwatch/redirect.ctx?MW=http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/nyt-com/html-companyprofile.asp&symb=AAPL), International Business Machines Corp. (http://www.nytimes.com/redirect/marketwatch/redirect.ctx?MW=http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/nyt-com/html-companyprofile.asp&symb=IBM) and Gateway Inc. (http://www.nytimes.com/redirect/marketwatch/redirect.ctx?MW=http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/nyt-com/html-companyprofile.asp&symb=GTW)
Barrett said Apple and Dell raised computer prices to compensate, and other companies responded by reducing the amount of memory installed in computers they sold but kept consumer prices the same.
The investigation started in 2002, a year after memory chip prices began to climb even though the high-tech industry was in a tailspin. At the time, the hikes were attributed to tight supplies, although then- Dell Computer (http://www.nytimes.com/redirect/marketwatch/redirect.ctx?MW=http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/nyt-com/html-companyprofile.asp&symb=DELL) CEO Michael Dell blamed them on cartel-like behavior by chip makers.
last year I bought a 1GB compact-flash card for 90 USD - Today - exacltly 1 year later the price is at 70 USD
Both prices looked in internet search-engine for cheapest card.
Last year 1GB was the tallest card around here - today it's 4 GB...
And for the same price as I got my 1GB card last year (90 USD) I can get just about 1,5GB today! - So even no 2GB card...
SO the card grew up from 1GB to 4GB within 12 months - and the price for 1GB card.... is almost still the same!! (and for about 8 months it even WAS the same price.... - market seems to be very shaky)
microsupercosym
10-13-2005, 12:47 PM
Maybe the Panasonic Santa Claus will include a 4 GB card bundled with the standalone HVX . Come on Jan, whadda ya say ? Damn. I really want this camera and to shoot in HD. I guess I'll just have to rent p2 cards from Rushy McRush Rush for the time being. Or maybe the New Jersey Queen will give us that 2 4GB card package for 7K ! I can swing that. I'll have to sell more crack though... just kidding..
1 optimistic fact: as soon as a good 32GB P2-card is affordable - there won't be any minutes-issue anymore - and from THAT point on, it's sneaking very slowly but continuously with it's advantages:
once "affordable" (this degree is interpreted differently by each customer...), the price won't stop falling and I don't see any limit, until 128GB (no more announced - don't know why) and this means 256GB total for HVX200 (and much more for cameras with more slots as e.g. the Varicam today and possibly cameras in future). And with this, FOUR HOURS of filming with HVX200 in best quality without changing card is possible while Sony with it's very limited "Professional Disc" won't ever pass it's data-rate and will never reach 100Mbps with blue laser the next couple of years and will not pass the 25GB probably when the HVX already is shooting with "cheap" 32GB or even 128GB cards...
This means, that I'm grateful to have with P2 a system much less limited than a system based on cassettes or blue-laser discs. P2 is (much) more expensive now - but the price for no limits is high - and even though falling each year. Maybe neither LINEARLY nor EXPONENTIALLY but CONSTANTLY and MONODIRECTIONALLY!
brianluce
10-13-2005, 09:31 PM
i think someone from panasonic said the prices will probably not decrease much, what WILL happen is you'll just get more storage for the same amount of money.
@brianluce:
simple mathematics: MORE STORAGE FOR SAME AMOUNT OF MONEY..... "more" means always "twice" for P2.... so price will become half...
e.g. 1000 USD for 8GB today and 1000USD for 16GB tomorrow means 500USD for 8GB tomorrow means half price of today....
is this what you call "not decrease much" ? - half price is a good deal IMO
brianluce
10-13-2005, 10:19 PM
yeah? well in my world for the mathmatically impaired, I'm still out a thousand bucks. whether it's 8 gigs or 800 gigs, i still have to fork over a thousand dollars. a thousand dollars is a lot of money--i could buy a lot of beer with that.
microsupercosym
10-13-2005, 10:42 PM
CiCi, you inspired me and have completely calmed my fears. You're right, the sky is the limit with p2, for the meantime people should shoot miniDV on it and rent out p2 cards from EVS at 50% off for weekend shoots, isn't that expensive when compared to paying $2000 for an 8 GB card today only to see it double and triple in capacity over time - I would say, if you absolutly need to shoot HD the moment you get this camera and are actually making top $$$ by doing so then do it, otherwise the casual owner or weekend filmmaker will benefit greatly from renting until prices become ok
makes sense now
I second that micro, and that was the whole purpose of the HVX club, to allow everyone the opprtunity to wait for bigger cheaper P2 cards. :thumbsup: Finally, 4:2:2 with no $25,000 deck!
fiercecurry
10-14-2005, 06:20 AM
Rush,
How much will you be renting the 8GB P2 cards for? How much for the weekend?
adaml
10-14-2005, 09:13 AM
By the time massive cards are available we'll be dealing with some flavor of 4:4:4 so minutes will still be limited. ;)
I don´t see a relation between memory(card) prices and the costs of P2 cards today.
P2 is Intellectual Property ownership and Panasonic exclusive, they can ask any price they want. There is no competition and no great demand for upscaling the production.
Its like the XD, SD/MMC, Memory Stick, Memory Stick PRO, Smartmedia storage cards for digital cameras. As soon there is more competition and more choice, the market will attract costumers with price and quality and possibillitys like good software and compression. ( see DVCPROHD)
If more brands will create camcorders based on a memorycard raid system like P2, prices will drop.
dregenthal
10-14-2005, 02:33 PM
I still say that the (HVX200) two 8GHz chips package should come with an upgrade coupon for direct exchange of the 8’s for 16’s when they become available. Seems like (for a lot of people that really intend to buy P2) it would settle the issue and be really cool marketing for Panasonic getting those P2’s out there early in the game.
Jolt917
10-14-2005, 05:06 PM
The card will be available for rental shortly after the release of the camera from a variety of sources, including authorized Panasonic rental partners and will be backed up by an archiving and vaulting scheme that will be consistent with a file-based post production workflow
Jolt917
10-14-2005, 05:11 PM
You should rely on the local vendors to make upgrade deals available since they are sensitive to market demand and have more dexterity than Panasonic in offering these sort of promotions.
harddrive
10-14-2005, 05:16 PM
One pro camera has already been announced using Compact Flash media as an option. If this becomes a trend, the roughly equivalent capacities and much lower cost per GB may force drastic P2 pricedrops to compete
Jolt917
10-14-2005, 06:28 PM
This is true, although the precise configuration of the card may preclude 3rd party vendors from offering compatible lower-cost alternatives, which is the only real impetus for Panasonic to lower the price and tout their card as the only authorized storage medium.
It's a good point and one worth taking up with Panasonic, i.e. how is your card different from other SD memory cards with the same form factor?
@xray: you're right: CF is not P2...
just the facts let me reflect what I was saying:
- P2 has 4 SD-cards inside..... so you pay a) P2 technology research amortisation and b) price for 4 SD cards ACTUAL MARKET LEVEL (and this should be alike the market of SD, CF, Memory Stick etc.)
- prices fall relatively fast, compared e.g. to electronic hardware
- Panasonic announces to double the capacity of P2 about once a year at least, so I don't think that the next card will be more expensive that the card before - even if capacity is doubled within that period - it's just typical for memory cards or PC's that the capacity grows with staying price level - so the "second best" card has only half as much capacity and just CAN'T cost much more than 50% of the new card (sometimes even less than 50%, if the new card just comes out).
Of course this is all speculation. But it works for years for PC prices and memory card prices - so why not for P2? And once Panasonic has amortised the amount for the research and development they had to invest for P2, it is not impossible that a little extra price drop could happen... just to install P2 better in a fluent market. One day the price for a P2 card will be 99% for the development of P2 and 1% for the SDs inside - today it's about 60% development and 40% for the SDs. So we can hope, that not only the price will become about half every 12 months for a specific P2 card, but in one or two years even less....
speculation.... speculation...
@cici "Of course this is all speculation. But it works for years for PC prices and memory card prices - so why not for P2?"
I think I just told you, P2 is Panasonic only. You can´t compare that with general memory prices or the prices of PC. Even if Panasonic is doubling their capacity each year, your economical camera life is about 4 years. You are already talking about 128 G cards that ´maybe´ someday will exist. I just count economical costs today.
I think if you want a cheaper price, you have to increase the sale numbers. If Panasonic can or will license their P2 technology to other vendors, or if more vendors are building videocams with memory raid systems (or other speedy memory cards) you will find more market fights. More choice generally means more quality and lower prices.
I admire your positive P2 mind set. It has advantages, but not today.
Padmapriya
10-16-2005, 09:07 AM
This was my plan for the HVX200. Just have the 2G p2 and down load it to my Apple Laptop.
If one can shoot 5 pages of script per day ie: 5 minutes, why does one require 8G memory?
If one is a news reporter or work for a TV station or a Movie Studio, then one budgets for them as a professional user.
Am I missing something?
I would have thought the cost of P2 cards is more linked to memory prices globally, rather than P2 users specifically.
From a pure economics perspective the price charged for P2 will depend on how much Panasonic feel they can 'get away with' with rather than memory prices as whole.
Indy
@xray: you're right: CF is not P2...
And once Panasonic has amortised the amount for the research and development they had to invest for P2, it is not impossible that a little extra price drop could happen...speculation.... speculation...
Quite possibly but you've failed to factor in the most important variable .......
GREED!
Indy....
Frizzle Fry
10-16-2005, 11:40 AM
Early adopters always pay top dollar for new tech. Think CD-R, DVD and the associated burners. P2 has no direct competition, so panasonic will set the price wherever they want it.
My guess is that by the time the 128 gb p2 cards are out (couple years from now?), the lower capacity ones will finally be affordable. but maybe the whole development cycle will be sped up by the new hi def gaming consoles coming out, and the subsequent spike in hdtv sales? after all, market penetration of hdtv is what will drive the need for the hvx and make hd content an even hotter commodity.
If I was din the market for an HVX, it would be for the 4:2:2 and the DVCPRO50. Even without HD, it would still be an excellent choice. I would have no qualms about joining the bleeding-edgers and buying early--the HVX is future-proof! It's got high quality SD and DVCPRO-50 (both of which will be around for years), and when you're ready, DVCPRO-HD.
This camera is going to be hot for a very, very long time. Kudos to Panasonic, they've done it again!
Quite possibly but you've failed to factor in the most important variable .......
GREED!
Indy....
I don't think this factor is fair towards an enterprise that's used to donate a lot of money for hurricane victims this year and dozens of times before... And if anybody starts calling this "marketing strategy" then I just can assure you: if I had an enterprise with a good gain, I would donate too a part of the gain and no book-keeper could convince me to do this in anyway to get another gain by doing it. It's a DONation and not a COMPENSation. There is greed on this world, but I just can't associate this term with Panasonic, as they offer us a great camera for half the price they actually COULD (see: XL H1 !!!) and they leave several doors open to record without P2, so "greed" rather would have been, producing a P2 camera, that can ONLY record on P2.
If I was in the market for an HVX, it would be for the 4:2:2 and the DVCPRO50. Even without HD, it would still be an excellent choice. I would have no qualms about joining the bleeding-edgers and buying early--the HVX is future-proof! It's got high quality SD and DVCPRO-50 (both of which will be around for years), and when you're ready, DVCPRO-HD.
Here I can find you, even without HD broadcasting today, shooting 16:9 is common. If the lens performs okay...its SD DVCPRO50 capacities can be a reason to buy. Going to pay for P2 is no issue then. (:huh: ehh) But, you think they can give you a HD lens + camcorder for < 6000 $? We will see.
Rush,
How much will you be renting the 8GB P2 cards for? How much for the weekend?
Hi curry, just about everything in a rental house rents at 5% of it value per day. So a $2300 GL2 rents for $120, and a $2000 P2 card rents for $100 per day/weekend. HVX Club price will be 50% of that, that's $50 per day. I will also offer free shipping for a week rental (which is 3-days, or $150). You have to be an HVX Club member though, i/e have bought the HVX from EVS within 6 months :thumbsup: After 6 months the discount will go back to 15% off. These will be a volatile media, so we will not keep them around very long, because the value will drop immensely within a year, unlike a deck or camera. I will start to post "Used 8GB P2" cards on DVXuser Site only, about 6 months after we start renting them. So that will be another way to own the media :laugh:
rgdfilms
10-17-2005, 12:19 AM
Rush that is awesome that you guys will sell used cards. Any guesses at what price you will sell used 8 GB when upgrades are due out ? I guess it all depends. If you are enrolled in the HVX club, how long does the 50% discount last for us ? Is it six months or is it you have six months following the HVX's release to buy an HVX from EVS and therefore qualify?
thanks
contentlab
10-17-2005, 12:39 PM
i find it interesting that few to none have pointed out that P2 cards are so expensive because it includes 4 cards with ZERO errors in a custom enclosure. such cards are rare and testing batches of cards to find these fault free memory cards takes time which equals money.
the number of fault free cards is not something that will increase as more people buy P2, or more companies partner with Panasonic on P2, or as other cameras are introduced using tapeless recording.
this is something that will increase as memory card manufacturers improve their manufacturing process and learn how to create more cards with less errors. if you want to help advance this then stop wondering about P2 specifically and get a job at Samsung working chip QC or go to school and get your masters or doctorate in Computer Engineering and figure out how to make "silicon" perfect all the time. if you manage to do so you'll be richer than gates and all the saudi's combined.
asparagui
10-17-2005, 03:17 PM
when you buy a flash memory chip, it comes with a little more space. as the bits go bad the on-board controller maps them out and uses the previously unused space. panny may or may not be using the higher-quality chips, but there's no such thing as 'perfect' flash memory. if anything, the flash memory processes are lower-quality than the methods used for cpus, because this capacity gives them a built-in tolerance for failure.
Rush that is awesome that you guys will sell used cards. Any guesses at what price you will sell used 8 GB when upgrades are due out ? I guess it all depends. If you are enrolled in the HVX club, how long does the 50% discount last for us ? Is it six months or is it you have six months following the HVX's release to buy an HVX from EVS and therefore qualify?
thanks
Hi rgd, you're right, it will depend at the time, I can't wager yet that far ahead, you just never know. The 50% off the rental will happen for 6 mo. after you buy your camera. We just look up your invoice. :thumbsup: