View Full Version : Worst Virus in History.
David G. Smith
10-05-2005, 01:39 PM
OMG. Scientist have reconstructed the 1918 Spanish flu virus that killed over 50million people. It is a great moment in science, but kind of scary. I hope this stuff does not get out of the lab. Isn't there something in the Bible about plauges in the endtimes?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/05/AR2005100501098_2.html
Just what we need, a Happy Halloween message from the scientific community. Where are the zombie dogs?
Isaac_Brody
10-05-2005, 01:52 PM
For some reason reading that made me want to have an ice cold beer.
If the world's gonna end I want my beer cold. :beer:
H5N1 (bird flu) virus is much more violent than the Spanish flu.
H5N1 is ranked with about 50% of mortality while Spanish flu is ranked around 5% of mortality.
It started to kill dozens people in Asia. Another one today.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4311588.stm
Our governments are preparing for the worst...
Isaac_Brody
10-05-2005, 02:00 PM
:beer::beer:
Sorry. We need a frowning smiley face holding beers. The smiling beer smiley face seems inappropriate, but it's all we got.
J.R. Hudson
10-05-2005, 02:02 PM
I caught this headline; and thought "But why?"
My favortie:
"...the genetic information sequenced by Taubenberger is being placed in GenBank, a public genetic sequence database operated by the National Institutes of Health."
""We carefully considered the implications of publishing this research and concluded that the knowledge we're gaining to potentially protect public health far outweighs the risk of working with the virus," Kennedy said
I'm just happy that some radical terrorist group can now recreate a "terrible pandemic. In a few months, it killed more people than any other illness in recorded world history "
The real malady here is; who gave these fuckers the go-ahead? Who authorized this? Who made this decision? And why do we have NOTHING to say about it?
PDX_DVX
10-05-2005, 02:02 PM
Our governments is preparing for the worst...
Lets hope they can respond to something like a pandemic better than a natural disaster.
Isaac_Brody
10-05-2005, 02:04 PM
If only we could trust them to not frak it up...
:beer::beer::beer:
tankgirl
10-05-2005, 02:06 PM
You guys should not be allowed to post this stuff. I would rather not know!! lol
Lets hope they can respond to something like a pandemic better than a natural disaster.
(I see what you're talking about but as a french I can't comment it.)
They're buying millions of Tamiflu boxes but it seems the virus started to resist.
http://www.cbc.ca/story/science/national/2005/09/30/tamiflu20050930.html
That's not a good news.
David G. Smith
10-05-2005, 02:22 PM
You guys should not be allowed to post this stuff. I would rather not know!! lol
If ignorance is bliss, than I government are the happiest f*ckers on earth. :laugh:
You know what freaks me out is that there is a "Tissue Wharehouse" that was set up by Lincoln!!! They got part of their samples from there. Can you imagine gazing upon Pershing's colon polyp or Patton's lanced ass boil? The also dug up some bodies frozen in Alaska looking for the virus.
That info is in a NY Times article. (gotta register to view, sorry)
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/05/health/05cnd-flu.html?hp&ex=1128571200&en=054b7bbcd1082219&ei=5094&partner=homepage
You can't make up stuff like this.
xl70e3
10-05-2005, 02:31 PM
John, you better close this thread before Isaac falls under the desk drunk. He already had 3 beers according to the smileys and keeps adding one each time he posts :cheesy:
tankgirl
10-05-2005, 02:31 PM
I just can't handle everyone telling me the world is going to end! It's like non stop. So yeah... ignorance is definetly bliss for me! I just bought a dvx... so I would be really angry if the world would end or I would die anytime soon!! REALLY angry!!
Isaac_Brody
10-05-2005, 02:40 PM
Here ya go Tankgirl.
:beer::beer::beer::beer:
tankgirl
10-05-2005, 02:41 PM
Thanks... as soon as I get to leave work I will join you!
David G. Smith
10-05-2005, 02:46 PM
Don't worry, beer kills virus'
Generating this stuff from the data stored would be a monumental task. One that isn't going to be easily replicated by a terrorist organization. If they have the sort of people who not only know enough but have access to the right tools for this sort of thing (this is pretty complex stuff and the places that could do it are few) we have a whole lot more to worry about than this!
That said, point well taken :)
Steve Strickland
10-05-2005, 02:53 PM
I'm definitely watching 12 Monkeys again tonight.
Isaac_Brody
10-05-2005, 03:05 PM
http://www.isaacbrody.com/images/beer-frown.gifhttp://www.isaacbrody.com/images/beer-frown.gifhttp://www.isaacbrody.com/images/beer-frown.gifhttp://www.isaacbrody.com/images/beer-frown.gifhttp://www.isaacbrody.com/images/beer-frown.gif
:beer::beer::beer::beer::beer:Why can't they do something useful and reconstitute Gandhi?
David G. Smith
10-05-2005, 05:19 PM
Generating this stuff from the data stored would be a monumental task. One that isn't going to be easily replicated by a terrorist organization. If they have the sort of people who not only know enough but have access to the right tools for this sort of thing (this is pretty complex stuff and the places that could do it are few) we have a whole lot more to worry about than this!
That said, point well taken :)
Yeah, your right, but what I worry about is somebody from the lab, with the "sniffles", taking the day off and going to a ballgame!!
That's worth an $8 beer. :beer:
Drew599
10-05-2005, 09:29 PM
Does it really matter? Believe it or not we all die. Its just stupid to worry about this kind of stuff because all your doing is spending time you could be drinking a beer worring about if your going to die.
If the shit hits the fan just have a plan. Hey, that sounds kind of cool. Have a place to go, like out side of the city where there won't be a lot of people around. Give it some good thought because I'm telling you all something is going to happen sooner that later.
Make sure you guys have a plan before the middle of October.
Make sure you guys have a plan before the middle of October.
... why because you're a part of some big sleeper cell and you know when "the plan" is coming to fruition?
Terry_Lasater
10-05-2005, 09:40 PM
Say what?! On one hand you tell us to relax and have a beer. On the other hand, you warn us to get a plan in place before mid-October(?).
"Now, what's it gonna be young feller? You want I should freeze or get down on the ground? 'Cause if'n I freeze, I can't rightly drop. And if'n I drop, I'm gonna be in motion. "
-Raising Arizona
Tim Miller
10-05-2005, 09:48 PM
You want some good/interesting/comical reading, search John Titor (http://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial_s&hl=en&q=john+titor&btnG=Google+Search). Read some of his "stories" on the internet. Good stuff. It gets you thinking.
Drew599
10-06-2005, 01:58 AM
October to just a feeling. Might be nothing. My family and I have already made plans on where to meet just incase.
Sorry if I caused any confusion Terry. I love that quote from "Raising Arizona". I said just to have a plan, not to worry about it. So if your not worrying about some kind of disaster, then just go on with your life. That would include having a cold one.
I just wanted to throw in my two cents on the whole thing. I hope I'm wrong because the last thing I need is some disaster to throw off the release of the HVX and the scripts I want to shoot with it.
Have lots of beer, food, water, movies to watch, those filter mask (good ones) extra beer and food , then if this flu makes the jump from person to person, do not leave your house for awhile. Hang out and talk on the internet for a month or so. This could kill 150 million.
Time to watch Steven Kings, The Stand.
Also you might want to get a gun to run off people who didn't get enough beer and food!
stabwound
10-06-2005, 03:39 AM
Hey.
If the avian flu takes hold...
...think of the empty streets...
...great time to make a zombie move!
David G. Smith
10-06-2005, 08:02 AM
Hey.
If the avian flu takes hold...
...think of the empty streets...
...great time to make a zombie move!
It would cut down the lines at the beer store. :beer:
tankgirl
10-06-2005, 08:31 AM
I want to add another. A guy I work with just e-mailed me this one.
http://www.heraldnewsdaily.com/stories/news-0081295.html
David G. Smith
10-06-2005, 08:37 AM
I want to add another. A guy I work with just e-mailed me this one.
http://www.heraldnewsdaily.com/stories/news-0081295.html
Holy cow, now I do need a beer. :shocked:
Wars, floods, disease and wacked out shit everywhere you look?....When I was a lad, I always thought that the end of the world would be best viewed through the eyes of a serious heroin addiction. Now I'm wondering if it's a good time to start looking for a reputable dealer:)
David G. Smith
10-06-2005, 09:42 AM
Great, we have to face the end of the world with a case of the flu and Isaac Brody hoarding all the beer. WTF! :beer:
JBurkey
10-06-2005, 10:45 AM
I just can't handle everyone telling me the world is going to end! It's like non stop. So yeah... ignorance is definetly bliss for me! I just bought a dvx... so I would be really angry if the world would end or I would die anytime soon!! REALLY angry!!
I just got my DVX too, but I do believe the world is coming to an end... what freaks me out is, rather than talk about prevention and such, the president went RIGHT to the quarantine strategy. Pretty soon this country will be under martial law. They'll commoditize water and you'll have to pay Haliburton or Bechtel for it; if they catch you trying to catpure rain water they'll throw you in jail (think I'm crazy? It happened in Bolivia) and now that DOW has engineered crop seeds to only grow one generation, they'll have total control of the food supply.
Luckily, I'll be there with my DVX to capture it all on DV for future generations. He he.
J
David G. Smith
10-06-2005, 11:15 AM
Well, it is obvious that we all have seen too many doomsday movie. In all fairness, I think that it is better to find out as much as possible about virus' as we can so we can fight the little critters. I just hope they are careful and find something that can be practically applied to medical science.
The thing that sucks is that viri (viruses?) can't be treated with anti bacterial medications. We don't have a good grasp on how to treat that crap.
Have lots of beer, food, water, movies to watch, those filter mask (good ones) extra beer and food
Though the mask is useless if you plan on utilizing said beer and food =D
tankgirl
10-06-2005, 11:24 AM
We'll have to build a contraption that always you drink beer without you or it getting contaminated. And after we do that maybe we should figure out how to eat!!
I just got my DVX too, but I do believe the world is coming to an end... what freaks me out is, rather than talk about prevention and such, the president went RIGHT to the quarantine strategy. Pretty soon this country will be under martial law. They'll commoditize water and you'll have to pay Haliburton or Bechtel for it; if they catch you trying to catpure rain water they'll throw you in jail (think I'm crazy? It happened in Bolivia) and now that DOW has engineered crop seeds to only grow one generation, they'll have total control of the food supply.
Luckily, I'll be there with my DVX to capture it all on DV for future generations. He he.
J
Well with millions of gun owners in this country we will not let Haliburton take over the country and you will be free to drink rain water out of your dirty gutter!!
Really the only way to stop the spread of the flu will be to catch it in time and quarantine that area and it will take the military to do that. But in this day and age one guy gets on a plane in Hong Kong with the flu and later that day it has spread half way around the world. There will be no way to stop it and it will kill the military, Haliburton employees, DVX users, Sony users, rich people, poor people. It won't matter. You will have to depend on yourself for food and water. No one will stop you from drinking out of your gutter.
David G. Smith
10-06-2005, 11:46 AM
I gotta figure out how to get beer out of my gutter!
Drew599
10-06-2005, 11:48 AM
That gutter water has got some...interesting flavor.
JBurkey
10-06-2005, 01:46 PM
I hope it kills Sony users at a higher rate than DVX users.
kidding!
J
JBurkey
10-06-2005, 02:20 PM
You want some good/interesting/comical reading, search John Titor (http://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial_s&hl=en&q=john+titor&btnG=Google+Search). Read some of his "stories" on the internet. Good stuff. It gets you thinking.
I admit I am an avid consumer of doomsday prophecies and information, and trained in wilderness survivial techniques, but... wow. Good read on John Titor. I couldn't get any work done this morning, because I was reading about him. Very, very interesting about the IBM computer bit, and some of his other predictions...
Certainly an interesting, if not amusing, read :)
MattC
10-06-2005, 09:43 PM
I would like to point out something. The world is not coming to an end, at least not until the sun explodes (we still have some time)...
However, WE might come to an end. The difference is subtle but important I think. That said, even if millions and millions of us die, we still haven't come to an end. We've survived quite a bit, us humans: plagues, massive wars, ice ages, etc... The planet has survived even more than we have.
Sometimes nature decides that the herd has to be thinned....
Isaac_Brody
10-06-2005, 09:49 PM
I like your perspective MattC. :beer:
Isaac_Brody
10-07-2005, 09:23 PM
The plot thickens...
From the New York Times.
October 8, 2005
U.S. Not Ready for Deadly Flu, Bush Plan Shows
By GARDINER HARRIS
WASHINGTON, Oct. 7 - A plan developed by the Bush administration to deal with any possible outbreak of pandemic flu shows that the United States is woefully unprepared for what could become the worst disaster in the nation's history.
A draft of the final plan, which has been years in the making and is expected to be released later this month, says that a large outbreak that began in Asia would, because of modern travel patterns, likely reach the United States within "a few months or even weeks."
If such an outbreak occurred, hospitals would become overwhelmed; riots would engulf vaccination clinics; and even power and food would be in short supply, the plan, obtained by The New York Times, says.
The 381-page plan calls for quarantine and travel restrictions but concedes that such measures "are unlikely to delay introduction of pandemic disease into the U.S. by more than a month or two."
The plan's 10 supplements suggest specific ways that local and state governments, and hospitals and healthcare workers should prepare now for an eventual pandemic by, for instance, drafting legal documents now that would justify quarantining thousands.
The plan outlines a worst-case scenario in which more than 1.9 million Americans would die and 8.5 million would be hospitalized with costs exceeding $450 billion.
It also calls for a domestic vaccine production capacity of 600 million doses within 6 months, more than 10 times the country's present capacity.
On Friday, President Bush asked the leaders of the nation's top six vaccine producers to the White House to cajole them into increasing their domestic vaccine capacity, and the flu plan demonstrates just how monumental a task these companies have before them.
In the wake of Hurricane Katrina, the Bush Administration's efforts to plan for a possible pandemic flu have become controversial, with many Democrats in Congress charging that the administration has not done enough. Many have pointed to the lengthy writing process of the flu plan as evidence of this. Delays by the Administration have meant that antiviral medications that are an important part of pandemic preparations are now in short supply.
But while the administration's flu plan, officially called the Pandemic Influenza Strategic Plan, closely outlines how the Health and Human Services Department might react during a pandemic, it skirts many essential decisions, such as how the military might be deployed.
"The real shortcoming of the plan is that it doesn't say who's in charge," said a top health official who provided the plan to The New York Times. "We don't want to have a FEMA-like response, where it's not clear who's running what."
The official asked for anonymity because the plan is not supposed to be distributed. The draft provided to The Times is dated Sept. 30, and is stamped "for internal H.H.S. use only." The plan asks government officials to clear it by Oct. 6.
Christina Pearson, a spokeswoman for Health and Human Services Secretary Michael O. Leavitt, responded, "We recognize that the H.H.S. plan will be a foundation for a government-wide plan, and that process has already begun."
Ms. Pearson said that Mr. Leavitt has already had one-on-one meetings with other cabinet secretaries to begin the coordination process across the federal government. But she emphasized that the plan given to The Times is a draft and has not been finalized.
Mr. Leavitt is leaving Saturday for a 10-day trip to at least four Asian nations, where he will meet with health and agriculture officials to discuss planning for a pandemic flu. He said at a briefing Friday that the administration's flu plan would officially be released soon. And he emphasized that the chances of the virus now killing birds in Asia becoming a human pandemic are low. A pandemic is global epidemic of disease.
"It may be a while longer, but pandemic will likely occur in the future," he said.
And he said that the administration's plan is an essential starting point for planning for state and local officials.
"It will require school districts to have a plan on how they will deal with school opening and closing," he said. "It will require the mayor to have a plan on whether or not they're going to ask the theaters not to have a movie."
"Over the next couple of months you will see a great deal of activity asking metropolitan areas, 'Are you ready.' If not, here is what must be done," he said.
A key point of contention if an epidemic strikes is who will get vaccines first. The administration's plan suggests a triage scenario for these essential medicines. Groups like the military, national guard and other national security groups were left out.
Beyond the military, however, the first in line for essential medicines are workers in plants making the vaccines and drugs as well as medical personnel working directly with those sickened by the disease. Next are the elderly and severely ill. Then come pregnant women, transplant and AIDS patients, and parents of infants. Finally, police, firefighters and government leaders are next.
The plan also calls for a national stockpile of 133 million courses of antiviral treatment. Presently the administration has purchased 4.3 million.
The plan details the responsibilities of top health officials in each phase of a spreading pandemic, starting with planning and surveillance efforts and ending with coordination with the department of defense.
Much of the plan is a dry recitation of the science and basic bureaucratic steps that must be followed as a virus races around the globe. But the plan has the feel of a television move-of-the-week when it describes a possible pandemic scenario that begins, "In April of the current year, an outbreak of severe respiratory illness is identified in a small village."
"Twenty patients have required hospitalization at the local provincial hospital, five of whom have died from pneumonia and respiratory failure," the plan states.
The flu spreads and begins to make headlines around the world. Top health officials swing into action and isolate the new viral strain in laboratories. The scientists discover that "the vaccine developed previously for the avian strain will only provide partial protection," the plan states.
In June, federal health officials find airline passengers infected with the virus "arriving in four major U.S. cities," the plan states. By July, small outbreaks are being reported around the nation. It spreads. As the outbreak peaks, about a quarter of workers stay home because they are sick or afraid to become sick.
Hospitals are overwhelmed. "Social unrest occurs," the plan states. "Public anxiety heightens mistrust of government, diminishing compliance with public health advisories." Mortuaries and funeral homes are overwhelmed.
Police, fire and transportation services are limited by personnel shortages, the plan states, and even food and power are in short supply. Pig herds are decimated.
Presently, an avian virus has decimated chicken and other bird flocks in 11 countries. It has infected more than 100 people, about 60 of whom have died, but nearly all of these victims got the disease directly from birds. An epidemic is only possible when a virus begins to pass easily among humans.
The plan details the responsibilities of top health officials in each phase of a spreading pandemic, starting with planning and surveillance efforts and ending with coordination with the department of defense.
Much of the plan is a dry recitation of the science and basic bureaucratic steps that must be followed as a virus races around the globe. But the plan has the feel of a television move-of-the-week when it describes a possible pandemic scenario that begins, "In April of the current year, an outbreak of severe respiratory illness is identified in a small village."
"Twenty patients have required hospitalization at the local provincial hospital, five of whom have died from pneumonia and respiratory failure," the plan states.
The flu spreads and begins to make headlines around the world. Top health officials swing into action and isolate the new viral strain in laboratories. The scientists discover that "the vaccine developed previously for the avian strain will only provide partial protection," the plan states.
In June, federal health officials find airline passengers infected with the virus "arriving in four major U.S. cities," the plan states. By July, small outbreaks are being reported around the nation. It spreads. As the outbreak peaks, about a quarter of workers stay home because they are sick or afraid to become sick.
Hospitals are overwhelmed. "Social unrest occurs," the plan states. "Public anxiety heightens mistrust of government, diminishing compliance with public health advisories." Mortuaries and funeral homes are overwhelmed.
Police, fire and transportation services are limited by personnel shortages, the plan states, and even food and power are in short supply. Pig herds are decimated.
Presently, an avian virus has decimated chicken and other bird flocks in 11 countries. It has infected more than 100 people, about 60 of whom have died, but nearly all of these victims got the disease directly from birds. An epidemic is only possible when a virus begins to pass easily among humans.
Lawrence K. Altman contributed reporting for this article.
I would like to point out something. The world is not coming to an end, at least not until the sun explodes (we still have some time)...
well. the Sun is in his meddle ages.
GenJerDan
10-08-2005, 02:09 PM
Viral diseases can be prevented...if you have the innoculation...which you won't have unless you have the virus available.
A "pandemic" thingie...not as likely these days, despite the ease of spread with airlines & such. The Spanish Flu killed gazillions of people because it was 1918, for pity's sake. We know how to reduce fevers, prevent dehydration, etc. these days, and can more easily reach the people who need the treatment. Don't have to get Ol' Doc Smith out to the boonies in the horse & buggy.
How about a little Bubonic Plague? Sound scary?
"Here's your penicillin shot. Move along. Next!"
Like the Antrax scare a few years ago. Yawn. Difficult to get. Difficult to spread. Of course, that's all our fault because we bathe regularly.
Matter of fact, a lot of the scary diseases of the past are no hoo-hoo because our personal hygiene approaches ridiculousness. (Well, maybe not everywhere. Been on a bus in Germany in the Summer? Whew! :cry: )
Me? I lived on Ft Detrick for 18 months. USAMRIID is such a fun place. We'd go out in wee hours of the morning for a daily run. The smell of burning monkeys is not very pleasant before breakfast. Or jogging around the pens with all the pretty horses...which have been injected with who-knows-what... :grin:
But I never volunteered for the experiments, even though it meant having 6 months off from regular duties. Just go in once in a while, get a shot of...something...then stop in regularly so the docs can check you out, make sure you haven't grown any extra appendages, and the ones you already had still worked and were the proper color. :evil: