P2 - How many uses until it would actually seem like a value?

[Duct Tape Films]

Here's my question(s), and they're more or less practical ones. Has anyone made up even a mock production budget based around the media cost of P2 yet? For example, and yes I know it's a little like the "how many licks does it take to get to the center of the tootsie pop" question, but how many uses per card would it take to make the cards seem like a value for the money? Or to rephrase, what is the actual dollar breakpoint at which it actually equals and then surpasses tape as a value, since every use of the card brings you closer to making the cards a value?

Moreover, are there really enough hours in even a mostly booked year to recoup your investment within the first year or two? Will the price have come down so far at that point as to make the initial P2 investment seem like a waste of $$$? Also, for a project of any duration, a narrative feature for example, the only safe & practical solution I see for temporary storage is a RAID drive, with 4-6 TB of storage. Are people including this more or less necessary cost in their plans? Long term storage, it's obvious something Optical will be the way to go, but for the time being, would something like D-VHS work, maybe not in the perfect storage sense, but enough to feel safe?

Lastly, the cards themselves - I know they are supposed to "last forever", but in my experience darn near nothing that claims that does that. What is the realistic (okay, even pessimistic) operational life of these cards, as in, how long are you really expecting them to last?

I understand some of these questions may have already been hashed out, but I really don't have enough time right now to go through the 30 some odd pages of the "P2 Shenanigans" thread. Nor do I harbor any "Panny is out to get us" insanity, in fact I'm quite excited by the proposition of the HVX200/P2 combo. I just want the cold hard facts, and looking at the amount of discussion on this subject, it looks like somebody must have actually come to them, or at least has inched their way toward them....

[Spiff]

I don't think it's fair to consider P2 as "reusable media". It seems much more appropriate to just quote the price of the HVX with all the P2 cards accompanying it - say $10k or $15k... and at that price the utility of P2 (and the limitations of the recording times without offloading the video) becomes a lot more important than the price. Once the camera and cards are purchased, you don't really go out and buy more cards... the incremental cost of the shoot is the cost of the media required to archive the material.

That said, I think the camera would pay for itself about as quickly as any $10k to $15k would - and the cost of dying P2 cards in however many years will fall into the standard maintenance budget - as opposed to getting your heads cleaned, you get a new card.

-Spiff

[dop16mm]

Agreed. Lets stop thinking of p2 as media, think of it as a multi-format deck, that must be included in the initial price. An old two piece beta-cam, or 3/4" for really old school wouldn't be much good without the recorder. The difference is that the media is not some propriety tape format, it is whatever the end user is most comfortable with and is scalable based on budget. Second, you don't need a separate propriety tape format deck to digitize the footage, once you do your hard drive dump you are ready to edit. Some will have their footage striped and mirrored on a x-serve raid, others will have a stack of firewire drives daisychained together, hoping it won't kack before they have a chance to make archival back-ups. Some will back up to automated tape servers, others who have more time than money will find 10 cents a GB for dvd the best way to go. The point is for the first time in history the choice of workflow will be left to the end user and not dictated by the technology

[Rosestar]

One way to consider when a P2 card will pay for itself is to look at the cost of DVC-PRO HD tape.
Currently, to get the quality of DVC-PRO HD you will pay $70/tape (63 minutes a tape, we'll round to one hour). If the P2 card is $2000 it will pay for it's self in 28 hours of use, just in savings from not having to use the tapes.

Of course there are other expenses in using the P2 but compared to the current cost of working with DVC-PRO HD (camera purchase/rental, deck purchase/rental, ect) they are much less. The question is the quality to price. I think that DVC-PRO on P2 has the lowest cost availble right now.

[Neil Rowe]

..i think the "value" of P2 will be immediaite to anyone working with it. its not all about cost.. the term "value" means "what are you getting for your money" .. you can buy a car for 200.00 or one for 200,000.00 the "value" of each is determined by how worth the respective amount of money was worth spending on the said automobile. in the case of P2 the workflow is nearly priceless IMHO. and i think once people get their hands on it .. they arent going to be thinking about how much it cost them.. only how cool and helpful it is and why on earth it took so long to get something like it.. and that... is value.

[Bart_Boge]

Q: When will you realize "break-even" with regard to P2 expenses?

A: The very second you actually begin shooting a project @ 1080p/24fps to DVCPROHD-100.

RENTAL SCENARIO: Rental houses will acquire HVX200's and P2 cards, and you can be absolutely certain that the cost will be far less per day than renting a VariCam and later capturing DVCPROHD tape to HDD (via another DVCPRO deck rental).

PURCHASE SCENARIO: The price gap between a VariCam and an HVX200 is Grand Canyon-wide, even if you throw in a dedicated laptop for P2 offloading, extra P2 cards, extra RAIDed FW drives, etc. Yes, I know they aren't the same--fixed vs. removable lenses, form factor, tape drive, etc.--but if the goal is most economical 1900x1080p 4:2:2 HD content, P2s allow the HVX to pull it off for an incredibly low cost, all things considered.

[Duct Tape Films]

One way to consider when a P2 card will pay for itself is to look at the cost of DVC-PRO HD tape.
Currently, to get the quality of DVC-PRO HD you will pay $70/tape (63 minutes a tape, we'll round to one hour). If the P2 card is $2000 it will pay for it's self in 28 hours of use, just in savings from not having to use the tapes.

Of course there are other expenses in using the P2 but compared to the current cost of working with DVC-PRO HD (camera purchase/rental, deck purchase/rental, ect) they are much less. The question is the quality to price. I think that DVC-PRO on P2 has the lowest cost availble right now.


This is the answer I was looking for, putting it in the world of right now, without having to wrap your head around a new "paradigm". So more or less after shooting one feature on it, you will have reaped the reward of cost savings so much that the next one you shoot (granted you own) will be capture media "cost free". I'm not sure I can subscribe to the idea of not calling P2 a media of sorts, and either way, it's sure to a line item expense one way or another, either by the cost of the cards themselves, or the cost of (re)using them.

[PKraft]

Duct,

the P2 cards are your camera's RAM. DId you ever argue about RAM costs when discussing your computer? It is part of the overall package cost. Period. We argue about disc or CD or DVD prices, but RAM is not part of the consumables and therefore does not count as media. As is the case with the P2 cards.

[Rosestar]

I'm not sure I can subscribe to the idea of not calling P2 a media of sorts, and either way, it's sure to a line item expense one way or another, either by the cost of the cards themselves, or the cost of (re)using them.

The analogy I like, and has been used In several threads is to compare the P2 cards to film camera magazines. The film in the mag is the media, as is the data written to the P2 cards.

Y

[evinsky]

It's actually more like 32min. per Tape for 720 60P. So you'll recoup in 14hous not 28. Those tapes are 63min. for dvc-pro 50 not 100. Thats roughly 108 rewrites on the P2 card.
Jan Crittenden from Panasonic told us at NAB that that the chips held up to 100,000 rewrites before failing. However, she said the connection hardware would most likely only last 30,000 insert/removals before failure. That's still 4000 hours of footage. My guess is you'll want a new card before you reach that number. I work my DVXs like dogs and I've only put 1600 hours on them.

[Rosestar]

It's actually more like 32min. per Tape for 720 60P. So you'll recoup in 14hous not 28. Those tapes are 63min. for dvc-pro 50 not 100. Thats roughly 108 rewrites on the P2 card.
Jan Crittenden from Panasonic told us at NAB that that the chips held up to 100,000 rewrites before failing. However, she said the connection hardware would most likely only last 30,000 insert/removals before failure. That's still 4000 hours of footage. My guess is you'll want a new card before you reach that number. I work my DVXs like dogs and I've only put 1600 hours on them.


I did not know that the tapes where for 32 minutes. Makes the HVX that much more attractive. thanks.

[mthornton]

One feature is enough for me!

Then it become a bonus toy!

Mthornton

[jessecoane]

This reminds me of a friend going to an all you can eat buffet and figuring out how much the food would cost normally, just to make sure he ate more than he spent.

The camera is what it is. If a dvcpro tape held 500 hours in HD would the HVX be worth less? The only reason this camera is as cheap as it is, is because it dosen't have a tape trasnport. You want to shoot DVCPRO HD for under 10k this is it. You want to shoot HD to tape for under 10k go HDV.

Sorry for the rant. I try to read all the posts to keep informed but this has turned into some sort of handholding session. The camera is a tool.

jesse

[braw]

Hey jessecoane, I hear ya.

Since the cameras announcement, this place has seemed to draw a good deal of trolls and "FUD". I'm all about healthy debate and people should be allowed to express themselves, but there has been a few "habitual line steppers" stirring trouble by relaying misinformation. I think it's a good sign that most gripes are of price and fear of a new format that allows us chuckleheads professional SD and HD.

How come nobody in here complains about the cost of any professional cameras?

[Constantine]

Damnit! Those panavision cameras are just too expensive! And what's this?! I have to load a whole new film magazine after only a few minutes!? Outrageous! Panavision is out to screw us all! Expecting us to buy film magazines in addition to the camera! Pure Lunacy! I won't have it! Let Panavision hear our voices before we have another useless film camera on the market that I can't use for weddings!

[mthornton]

I am NOT buy a Panavision for wedding.

Adurrrrh!

LOL, Hihihi!

Mthornton

[Duct Tape Films]

This reminds me of a friend going to an all you can eat buffet and figuring out how much the food would cost normally, just to make sure he ate more than he spent.

The camera is what it is. If a dvcpro tape held 500 hours in HD would the HVX be worth less? The only reason this camera is as cheap as it is, is because it dosen't have a tape trasnport. You want to shoot DVCPRO HD for under 10k this is it. You want to shoot HD to tape for under 10k go HDV.

Sorry for the rant. I try to read all the posts to keep informed but this has turned into some sort of handholding session. The camera is a tool.

jesse

I'm just assuming from your lack of concern for issues of $$$ and cents (or, sense) that you must be independently wealthy. Congratulations. :thumbsup:

Most of us aren't, and have to find a way to justify expenditures either to clients, producers, or investors, none of which are likely to be tech savvy enough to comprehend the idea of NO media cost. Moreover, I believe in this thread some have demonstrated that there IS an actual media cost, even if it is just the cost of nominal wear & tear and/or eventual replacement for the cards. Really, just try and turn in a production budget without any amount of money on the media line. You WILL be laughed at, and told to find a figure.

To suggest that trying to come up with an loosely agreed upon way of passing on this expense along is some kind of "handholding" rings of immaturity and/or lack of real world experience. But that shouldn't concern you, what with having all the money in the world and all. Should be able to buy your way right on in. :grin:

[Duct Tape Films]

It's actually more like 32min. per Tape for 720 60P. So you'll recoup in 14hous not 28. Those tapes are 63min. for dvc-pro 50 not 100. Thats roughly 108 rewrites on the P2 card.
Jan Crittenden from Panasonic told us at NAB that that the chips held up to 100,000 rewrites before failing. However, she said the connection hardware would most likely only last 30,000 insert/removals before failure. That's still 4000 hours of footage. My guess is you'll want a new card before you reach that number. I work my DVXs like dogs and I've only put 1600 hours on them.

That's what I thought on the tape length. So even better on the breakeven point. :)

Hmmm. So probably waiting a bit for longer duration cards will make your camera last EVEN longer given the insert/removal eventual failure figure, given nothing else fails before that. Sounds like they really did their homework on this....

[jessecoane]

Lack of concern for money? Independently Wealthy? Ya, No talent just eat sh*t and sleep. I was talking about your posts and the posts of others. Keep it about that and don't try make this about me.

Here, I'll give you this one for free. Buy two 8 gig P2 cards and never take them out of the camera. Now the camera costs 10k. If you're client wants 4:2:2 HD and won't pay for a varicam rental you think they are really gonna laugh at you for not charging for tape stock?

The more time you spend on actually thinking about a workflow instead of the symantics of tape stock, the brighter you're future will be. Maybe one day you'll be as rich as me.

jesse

[jmfox]

I assume there will be a P2 sized interface (with buffering) that will connect directly to an external hard drive. If Pany doesn't already have it, the third party guys should be able to knock one out soon enough. Of course, you can go through the firewire connection but that requires a computer and software for each camera.

Actually, once buffered and translated, a P2 size card could be designed to accept any of the mini hard drive options that are small enough to be inserted inside a P2 shell.

jmf

[Jaime Valles]

Hmmm. So probably waiting a bit for longer duration cards will make your camera last EVEN longer given the insert/removal eventual failure figure, given nothing else fails before that. Sounds like they really did their homework on this....

Actually, if you just buy two 8GB cards (say, the $9,999 package) the cards SHOULD last the 100,000 rewrites, because you never have to take the cards out. You can dump the footage directly from the cards in the HVX to an external Hard Disk via Firewire or USB2.

This is what I'm planning to do on my next feature film. Assuming there will be 25 hours of footage, here's my workflow. Fill 'em up, dump to a 250GB HDD (Disk A), keep shooting while somebody makes a backup of the footage to another two 250GB HDDs (Disks B and C). Then at home at the end of the shoot, put the footage from Disk A into the two big 1TB Hard Disks for editing. Leave Disks B and C as archival in two separate physical locations with ideal storage conditions. For 25 hours of footage, I think I'll need 12 250GB HDDs.

Cost:
HVX & two 8GB cards = $10,000
250GB HDD ($200 each x 12) = $2400
1TB HDD ($900 each x 2) = $1800
TOTAL = $14,200
Total for media (not P2 cards because they're "part of the camera") = $4200

I already have a PowerMac with FCP, so I wouldn't need any additional hardware for editing. So, after getting the HVX package with two 8GB cards, I'm spending $4200 on all the storage space I need for editing AND for archiving 2 separate copies of all the footage directly on ready-to-edit Hard Disks.

By comparison, you'd need 47 DVCProHD tapes to make 1 archive of all 25 hours of footage, which rings up $3290. So 94 tapes for 2 archives, at $70 each = $6580

PLUS, you still need to get enought Hard Disk space to digitize the footage and edit.

I think I'm saving money right off the bat. I'm not waiting for the "media" to pay for itself... It already did. Not to mention that for the next time, I already HAVE all the hard disks, ready to go. With thape, I'd have to buy them all over again for the next project.

I think P2 is going to save uas a LOT of $$$ by comparison to DVCProHD tape.

[Duct Tape Films]

Lack of concern for money? Independently Wealthy? Ya, No talent just eat sh*t and sleep. I was talking about your posts and the posts of others. Keep it about that and don't try make this about me.

Here, I'll give you this one for free. Buy two 8 gig P2 cards and never take them out of the camera. Now the camera costs 10k. If you're client wants 4:2:2 HD and won't pay for a varicam rental you think they are really gonna laugh at you for not charging for tape stock?

The more time you spend on actually thinking about a workflow instead of the symantics of tape stock, the brighter you're future will be. Maybe one day you'll be as rich as me.

jesse

So you're content shortchanging your ACTUAL expenses, eating them yourself, rather than passing them along to the client? Bully to you.

As for workflow, I have thought about it extensively, but that is putting the cart well before the horse, no? The FIRST thing I'm going to have to do is sell the idea of shooting on this camera to someone who may not understand or even care about the benefits of workflow, let alone BELIEVE that this camera can in anyway compare to a Varicam - something that will, for early adopters, be kind of an uphill battle - although the results I'm sure will more than impress and win converts of the skeptics.

No, the single biggest reason there WILL be subscribers will be first and foremost, cost savings, & cost savings alone, oh, and did I mention, cost savings. That's the reason people will want to use this camera - a value/results ratio that is as yet unheard of. We, the actual users, may get all excited about workflow, but you know as well as I do that that is NOT the reason someone who is writing checks will give the go ahead. Bottom line....

So how do you sell using this camera to someone who doesn't care about workflow? You compare it to using other models, showing a cost/benefit comparison versus another camera of somewhat the same capablities. Telling a potential producer that his savings in media will be 50% compared to a Varicam on the first picture, and then nearly 100% on any subsequent ones, is the kind of thing THEY LOVE HEARING, and in turn sells them on investing in this technology.

As for just buying the two cards, right now that's an almost unworkable solution. Any savings you've had in media costs have just been eaten up by your talent and crew just standing around waiting for the transfer to your short term storage device. Methinks it perhaps may be you that may want to think about workflow issues....

[jmfox]

you never have to take the cards out. You can dump the footage directly from the cards in the HVX to an external Hard Disk via Firewire or USB2.

Are you sure about that? There no doubt is firewire but I think it must be captured and processed before it can be saved to a hard disk. If the firewire is on the output side of the P2 then it can be saved to a hard disk but something (like a computer) needs to direct traffic.

jmf

[Duct Tape Films]

Are you sure about that? There no doubt is firewire but I think it must be captured and processed before it can be saved to a hard disk. If the firewire is on the output side of the P2 then it can be saved to a hard disk but something (like a computer) needs to direct traffic.

jmf

Almost sure I read a post from Jan saying that yes, you will need a computer to direct traffic using this method. Also, what are you going to do about this transfer downtime for cast & crew, not to mention limited location time? If you're paying these people, it would certainly cost less just to buy another couple cards and keep moving along....

[Rosestar]

As for just buying the two cards, right now that's an almost unworkable solution. Any savings you've had in media costs have just been eaten up by your talent and crew just standing around waiting for the transfer to your short term storage device. Methinks it perhaps may be you that may want to think about workflow issues....

Your talent and crew should be rehersing, blocking, lighting and setting up for the next shoot. If you have your talent and crew watching the camera department change mags (or tapes) or batteries or lenses or what ever, then you have work flow problems now.

[jessecoane]

Dude, how am I eating the expense myself if it's a business expense. You don't charge for the use of your camera on shoot? Just media? If i have a 10k camera I bring with me to set then I'm gonna be compensated for the use of that camera.

Talent and crew just standing around while I change film mags or make-up etc. Unheard of!!!

Again you are making this argument about me, and I have nothing to do with it.

Its a contest, piss away!!!

jesse

[Duct Tape Films]

Your talent and crew should be rehersing, blocking, lighting and setting up for the next shoot. If you have your talent and crew watching the camera department change mags (or tapes) or batteries or lenses or what ever, then you have work flow problems now.

I guess I'm just spoiled to the fact that I've been on some really efficient sets, whereby most of the next shots are lit/dressed pretty close to ready for prime time by the time I'm done with the last shot. It's also my understanding that transfering the cards to a backup media, via the firewire out, right now takes as many minutes as what you have stored, as in real time, as in 16 GB = 16 minutes. Please do correct me if I'm wrong, but if that's the case, then that takes considerably longer than changing batteries or even mags, and I can't really see tying up the camera for that amount of time when I should be setting up the shot, thus the real need for four cards. I do hope I'm mistaken....

[Jaime Valles]

Almost sure I read a post from Jan saying that yes, you will need a computer to direct traffic using this method. Also, what are you going to do about this transfer downtime for cast & crew, not to mention limited location time? If you're paying these people, it would certainly cost less just to buy another couple cards and keep moving along....

I'm almost 100% sure you can dump directly from P2 to an external Firewire or USB hard disk. What you can't do is record directly to a hard disk WITHOUT recording to P2 first. But you can fill up the two 8GB cards, then plug in the HDD to the firewire port and tell the HVX to transfer the contents to the HDD. Maybe Barry or Noah will chime in and clarify.

As for the "cast & crew standing around waiting to offload the footage," I certainly needed time between setups to arrange lights, do blocking with actors, rehearse lines, etc. I don't think taking a few minutes after recording a scene will disrupt the process too much. Especially when you take into account the time saved over having to digitize the footage, not to mention having to rent a DVCProHD deck.

[Duct Tape Films]

I'm almost 100% sure you can dump directly from P2 to an external Firewire or USB hard disk. What you can't do is record directly to a hard disk WITHOUT recording to P2 first. But you can fill up the two 8GB cards, then plug in the HDD to the firewire port and tell the HVX to transfer the contents to the HDD. Maybe Barry or Noah will chime in and clarify.

As for the "cast & crew standing around waiting to offload the footage," I certainly needed time between setups to arrange lights, do blocking with actors, rehearse lines, etc. I don't think taking a few minutes after recording a scene will disrupt the process too much. Especially when you take into account the time saved over having to digitize the footage, not to mention having to rent a DVCProHD deck.

That's my question though, how ARE you going to set up your shot when your camera's tied up transfering, for what I undertstand is the same duration of time that you've shot? Example, you shoot 16 minutes, you transfer via firewire from the camera 16 minutes, and THEN you set up your shot - or worse yet, waiting for the real time transfer in the middle of a shot?

I hope that I am grossly misinformed on this, but this is EXACTLY the reason why I've come to the conclusion that at the very least three, and preferably four, cards would be the only way to not have a unmanagable stoppage in work flow, simply for the fact that you wouldn't have to tie up the camera at all. This is less like changing batteries, and more like waiting for them to charge in reference to previous analogies that have been made....can anyone clear up whether the firewire out transfer actually takes that long, as in real time?

[jmfox]

Yes, you need to know what the box will do. If it is smart enough to dump to an external hard drive, maybe it can do it real time.

jmf

[Neil Rowe]

in reply to duct tape films.. i m not sure you can do file transfer over the 1394 port.. but as far as usb2.0. ..something id like to direct your attention to concerning transfer times is that the maximum data rate you can record at is 100 mbps. while the maximum datat rate of the P2 card is over 600 mpbs.. and usb2.0 is over 400 mbps. . so no.. it wouldnt take the same amount of time to dump as it does to record.. its been gone over many times before. but pana knows that people will expect faster than realtime data transfer. obviosly otherwise it would take the same amount of time to capture via tape.. right? so theorheticvally you could run data transfer at the maximum data throughput of the parts involved in the system you are dumping to. which is probably limited by the max speed of usb2.0.

it has been stated that the camera will need an intelligent device on the 1394 port to capture direct to disk. and apparently the file transfer to disk over the USB2.0 port has to be done when the camera is not recording.

as far as setting up shots during this time.. we dont know ehether or not you can still see your framing and all to set up a shot as the camera is transferring the files yet.

[Jaime Valles]

...the maximum datat rate of the P2 card is over 600 mpbs.. and usb2.0 is over 400 mbps. . so no.. it wouldnt take the same amount of time to dump as it does to record...

Exactly. Transfer rates should be faster than realtime. If not, I agree that having more than 2 cards is the way to go.


...it has been stated that the camera will need an intelligent device on the 1394 port to capture direct to disk. and apparently the file transfer to disk over the USB2.0 port has to be done when the camera is not recording.

Wait... you mean you need a Firestore type device to capture straight to disk if you DON'T use P2 cards, right? Because if you have P2 cards, you can record to them, and them dump to an off-the-shelf USB or Firewire, if I'm not mistaken. You cannot record DIRECTLY to the drive, but you can transfer footage from the P2 to the drive without the use of a laptop.


...as far as setting up shots during this time.. we dont know ehether or not you can still see your framing and all to set up a shot as the camera is transferring the files yet.

I really hope you can look through the viewfinder while dumping the P2 cards to disk. Otherwise it could add a lot more time between setups.

[Neil Rowe]

Wait... you mean you need a Firestore type device to capture straight to disk if you DON'T use P2 cards, right? Because if you have P2 cards, you can record to them, and them dump to an off-the-shelf USB or Firewire, if I'm not mistaken. You cannot record DIRECTLY to the drive, but you can transfer footage from the P2 to the drive without the use of a laptop..


..of course :) - the confusion comes fomr me not cinsidering recording to P2 and then dumping to HDD as DTD recording. granted the P2 drives are still drives so it is direct to drive recording, but its not direct to hard disk.



I really hope you can look through the viewfinder while dumping the P2 cards to disk. Otherwise it could add a lot more time between setups

me too. it would seem silly not to be able to. .. i can understand not being aboe to record.. but not being able to see through the lense would be dumpy.. id still love the cam im sure. but id be dissapointed if it was an oversight that excluded this featrure.