HDV the future?

[ettubaby]

I saw a couple of threads debating the whether to wait for Panasonic to come out with a DVCPRO HD model. Panasonic already has a pretty cheap one that goes to $7000 - $8000. No one will dispute that DVCPRO is much better, but its bandwidth is higher, the systems required are speced up too. I get the sense that the feeling is the prosum or indi video producers here will determine the winner. But, it just show a lack of understand of marketing. The Sony f1 is being marketed at the well-heeled techie guy, its a rolex. HDV will win because Canon, sony, JVC, etc will start making one chip HDV that will clean panasonics clock. The reason is a marketing choice, its a format that will wow the average consumer and does not affects profits in there high end stuff. Panasonic is foolish if they do come out with a lowend model because they will be cannibalizing their lowend ENR biz

[Anhar_Miah]

ball glazing is a wonderful thing but to be honest i dont think anybody hear knows whats gonna happen next in the video industry BUT one thing is for sure... big changes are happing write now, i mean HD is actually here and now their aint no turning back..

as the song goes "the ony way is up!" :D

[Barry_Green]

HDV will win because Canon, sony, JVC, etc will start making one chip HDV that will clean panasonics clock.
? If HDV becomes big business, Panasonic can always join on. Panasonic is currently the undisputed king of low-end 3-CCD models, and they can always join in and make consumer HDV models all day long. They could make a 3-CCD GS400-HDV which would probably be a tough clock to clean.

I don't think Panasonic has anything against HDV per se, but they don't believe it's a professional format. I think (and this is only a guess) that they will produce DVCPRO-HD product that will be cross-compatible across their entire product line, which will not cannibalize anything but instead make their lineup more attractive to stations/networks. Right now stations and networks are shooting on BetaSP, DVCAM, DV, DigiBeta, DVCPRO-50, and a few are using MPEG-IMX and the few unfortunates out there who bought into BetaSX. Panasonic intends to offer a bottom-to-top solution, cameras in all form factors and price ranges, that all record on the same interchangeable format, DVCPRO-HD. Far from "cannibalizing" their higher-end sales, the introduction of a $3,000 to $5,000 model is a very smart move on their part, because they're facing the reality: stations are already employing DVX's and PD150's. It's already happened, and they know it. So now they'll design a camera that fits in the product line and uses the same format... it's brilliant, actually.

As for HDV and where it's headed: it could be big. It's not a bad format. It's not what I would want to shoot on, I'd much rather use a better and more robust format, but if there's to be adoption of high-def by consumers, HDV will likely be "it". But I don't think HDV will earn the trust of the networks and bigger production companies; I think they'd much rather use something like DVCPRO-HD.

[ettubaby]

Barry, I agree they are selling a lot of dvx100a, I bought one, using it on a doc, never used the 24p, buy love the fpower mic, and picture.
I will tell you this, it is not stations that are making the buying decisions buy who has the credit card, reporters will go with the DV cameras, because they are light and easy to use, camera guy hate them, they make them look like dorks, shoulder mounted, yeah.

>It's already happened, and they know it. *So now they'll design a >camera that fits in the product line and uses the same format... it's >brilliant, actually.
I think panasonic will come out with something, but, man, they already have a really cheap great camera that does a lot. I just think DVCPROHD is not a consumer standard, HDV is. All the debates about he F1 24 and 30 filmlike stuff is funny, its is toys, it works, like the cheese effects in older cameras.*
>But I don't think HDV will earn the trust of the networks and bigger >production companies; I think they'd much rather use something like >DVCPRO-HD.
That is true, but they also have the cash to spend and deep pockets, there is no reason to give them a break. The pro guy will go for the more robust looking stuff.

The problem with panasonic stance is that no one else is standing with them. They will just piss off loyal users that have thous of dollars of buying choices

[Woodson]

In 5 years.. there's going to be something higher than HD, called something else.

[Barry_Green]

Most of the camera guys I've talked to do hate the handheld lightweight cameras, that is true. They like the heft and the feel (and the look) of the shoulder-mount.

But you do realize I'm talking about a DVCPRO-HD camera priced around $3,000, right? This isn't any $20,000+ camera... Panasonic's showed their prototype, with a DVCPRO-HD label on it, and they talked about a price in the range of $3,000 (which I wouldn't mind, but I'd rather pay $5,000 and get the camera I WANT rather than $3,000 and have it lacking crucial features...)


The problem with panasonic stance is that no one else is standing with them. They will just piss off loyal users that have thous of dollars of buying choices
The thing about DVCPRO-HD is that it's not a new format. It's already out there. It's been out there for over three years. Editors like FCP-HD and Avid Express already support it. So is it Panasonic who's out there all alone, or is it Sony? HDV's the new format here, that requires new gear... Panasonic's already delivered DVCPRO-HD, they'd just be rounding out their product line.

As far as consumer gear, yes that's a different market. And yes, if HDV takes off, I'm certain Panasonic would join the coalition. But seriously, how soon will HDV cameras make an impact on other products' sales? Already the FX1's come down in price $500 at B&H, so they must not be selling every one they can make yet... the XL2 stayed at full retail for ... what was it, like three or four months? Maybe the pent-up demand among early adopters has already been satisfied, or maybe they're all skipping the FX1 and waiting for the Z1.

HDV may indeed be the format of the future. Or it may flop, the same way SACD, DVD-Audio, Micro-MV, BetaSX, Betacam, DCC, CD-I, Digital8, LaserDisc, S-VHS, and many other formats have flopped. It's really, really, really early in the game right now. Heck, the entire continent of Europe is still deciding their broadcast standard, and if they choose 720p over 1080i (and all indications are that they will), that could "orphan" the FX1/E then and there.

This is a game that needs to be played out. It's a little early to determine a "winner"... or whether the consumer will even be aware that there's a game even going on.

[Aejaz]

I think the bottom line is that a consumer would like to have 'the best format which is most affordable'. The hints about DVCPro-HD being superior to HD are already there...the only thing that remains to be seen is what Panasonic would do to make it more affordable...imho.

[ettubaby]

>As far as consumer gear, yes that's a different market. *And yes, if >HDV takes off, I'm certain Panasonic would join the coalition. *But >seriously, how soon will HDV cameras make an impact on other >products' sales? *Already the FX1's come down in price $500 at B&H, so >they must not be selling every one they can make yet... the XL2 stayed >at full retail for ... what was it, like three or four months? *Maybe the >pent-up demand among early adopters has already been satisfied, or >maybe they're all skipping the FX1 and waiting for the Z1.

Berry they are not freaking out, because they are under no illusions that any money will be made, maybe after a couple of years they will break even, they are probably just making a few thousand units. Sony hasn't lowered its price, it just doesn't enforce a base like Apple and other manufactures. BH bought a large lot and negotiated a great price.

I don't think Panasonic is making great profits on dvx100, margins are low on equipment like that. See how much canon is selling the xl2 and how sony priced the Z1, and Panasonic is going to price a DVCPROHD with 24p, camera for 3 grand! say goodbye to their $26,000 camera, say goodbye to their $20,000.

[Barry_Green]

That logic makes no sense to me. A 2/3" shoulder-mount camera with interchangeable lenses offers a lot more than any $3,000 camera will.

They'll sell a bazillion of the cheap cameras, and they'll probably sell just as many of the expensive cameras as they always did.

I think people don't really understand just how few of these big cameras get sold. I mean, how many CineAlta's are there in the market? A couple hundred? A thousand at most? And how many DVX's are there? A hundred thousand? How many PD150's... 200,000?

There just aren't that many big cameras sold. That's why they're expensive -- there has to be a lot of profit margin to pay for the R&D. And no, there's likely very little profit margin on the small cameras, which means they have to sell in bulk. Which means that if Panasonic sells 1,000 VariCams over its product life, and 100,000 mini-cams, they'll probably make about the same amount of net profit from both.

Look at it this way: how many Lamborghini Diablo's get sold every year? 50? And how many Ford Mustangs... 500,000? I really don't think the new Mustang, or the Mitsubishi Lancer EVO, have any (and I do mean *any*) effect on Ferrari or Lamborghini sales. And I don't expect that someone who's in the market for a CineAlta will say "well, now hold on a minute, let's buy an FX1 instead". Different market, different capabilities, different price points, different needs.

[Jeff_Chandler]

>>They'll sell a bazillion of the cheap cameras, and they'll probably sell just as many of the expensive cameras as they always did.<<

Barry is absolutely correct. There is no real connection between the two. I really think that Panansonic is very likely to get this right, and if they do the could very well leave Sony in their HD dust. Being the first out the door doesn't aways equal the greatest success. Prosumer level HD or HDV is not a done deal yet. Widespred acceptance will determine who leads. And until there is a viable means to deliver a finished product (which Panny could have), this format is pretty meaningless for the immediate future.

[SimonMW]

If some form of HD distribution isn't sorted out then HDV can never really take off.

I know some people say "well yeah, but HD-DVD will be out by the end of the year". Okay, that's fine. But how long before there is WRITABLE HD-DVD available? Things look a lot different now don't they?

Panasonic will have a huge advantage if they released a prosumer DVCPRO-HD camera purely because DVCPRO-HD is known, and respected by people who count already. Certainly such a camera would be much more ready for low level HD broadcast application than HDV. It won't compete with Cinealta obviously. However it's a format that's in use already, and that counts for loads.

[ettubaby]

I am not debating that they can't put out a DVCPROHD camera for $3000, they can do anything they want and yes, it would be very beneficial to this segment of consumers, but make no biz sense.

Where did you get those numbers for dvx100 and pd150 sales. Have did you worked them? You are know for you extensive analysis? I think you might be over estimating the size of this market. You would think that with sales like those, the dvx would have been mentioned in Matsushita annual report, you know they own JVC too. I remember talking to a Nikon rep once and him telling how many SLRs Nikon had sold total, the number was stocking

[Barry_Green]

Those are absolute wild guesses, as wild as the flock of geese on Disjecta's back yard. *I have no idea what the total number is. *I do normally research things pretty thoroughly, but this is one that is a complete unknown, manufacturers just don't release that kind of info. *That's why I put question marks after the numbers - because I don't know. *However, I've talked to enough resellers and product reps and rental house people to have a glimmer of a guess, and I do believe that the numbers are probably not *extremely* far off -- I may be off by as much as 2 or 3 times, but I don't think I'd be off by an order of magnitude in either direction. *So, there might be 200,000 PD150's out there, or there might be 100,000 or 300,000, but it's not like there's 20,000 or 2 million... there might be 200 VariCams, or 400, or maybe even 2,000 but there's not 20,000 of 'em.

I base the PD150 sales on the idea that it's been around a couple of years longer, and got extensive buy-in by networks and broadcasters. *And recently the DVX has enjoyed similar successful buy-in, and among show producers as well. *Those may be high numbers though... there might be only 50,000 DVX's and 100,000 PD150's. *Even if I'm off by half, it still doesn't change the point that these little cameras are likely to have no impact on SDX, F900, and VariCam sales. *And even if they do, what they take from one line will be added to the other, and I think the manufacturer's bottom line is likely to suffer very little, and probably going to improve.

Again, fairly wild guesses, but I don't know any better way to estimate the numbers... manufacturers don't release that data. *

[Aejaz]

Barry ! lets do some more 'wild guesses'...

What do u think...Hasn't Pansonic already made its intentions clear about the HD format by not joining hands with the Sony group at an early stage? Meaning...any decision by them to join the HD alliance would be dictated purely by the market forces rather than their own desire to do so.

And to what extent this line of thinking on part of Panaosnic (which is a bazillion dollar comapny) will conversely affect the market forces?....e.g the European will or otherwise to adapt 1080 as the HD format.

[David Jimerson]

I dunno . . . things seem to me moving rather rapidly toward 720p being the de facto HD standard (though there’s time to change) . . . which would certainly follow the usual pattern of mediocrity (whether or not Fox Sports considers it "finest HD standard").

Panasonic is a big company, but it is, frankly, one of many. It can’t sway market forces like, say, Microsoft can. Besides, JVC is in the HDV camp and it and Panasonic share a parent company, so there could be pressure from that direction.

I think it’s way too soon to tell what’s going to happen, and any guesses would indeed be wild.

[Barry_Green]

What do u think...Hasn't Pansonic already made its intentions clear about the HD format by not joining hands with the Sony group at an early stage? Meaning...any decision by them to join the HD alliance would be dictated purely by the market forces rather than their own desire to do so.
Any guesses would indeed be wild, rampant speculation. Obviously it's noteworthy that the second-largest (are they the second-largest?) camcorder manufacturer has so far snubbed the proposed HDV standard. But... we rarely ever have a format launch that's uncontested... Beta vs. VHS, DVD-R vs. DVD+R, DVD-RAM vs. DVD-RW, SACD vs. DVD-Audio, BetaSP vs. MII, HD-DVD vs. blu-ray... so maybe an alternative format is in the cards. Then again, I think CD, DVD and DV were pretty much uncontested, so it does happen.

My personal guess is that Panasonic will introduce a low-end DVCPRO-HD camera (wow, big risk-taking there, right, seeing as they've already shown a prototype!) but I think they'll do it because they think HDV is not a professional format. For consumers, though, I don't see DVCPRO-HD in the home. There'll never be a $399 DVCPRO-HD camcorder. And with Sony and JVC and Canon and Sharp on board, it looks to me like if there will ever be an adoption of HD by the consumer, it'll be HDV. And if so, I expect that Panasonic will join the HDV coalition and make HDV cameras.


And to what extent this line of thinking on part of Panaosnic (which is a bazillion dollar comapny) will conversely affect the market forces?....e.g the European will or otherwise to adapt 1080 as the HD format.
Europe apparently doesn't want to adopt 1080, they want progressive-scan (as we all should...) If there was 1080p/50 then it'd be a no-brainer, but there isn't, so for the fast refresh rate you have to go 720p. And that's what they're likely going to do. Which is no problem for HDV, as it supports 1080/50i as well as 720/50p. But it would be a problem for 1080i camcorder buyers (like FX1 and Z1).

[Barry_Green]

I dunno . . . things seem to me moving rather rapidly toward 720p being the de facto HD standard (though there’s time to change) . . . which would certainly follow the usual pattern of mediocrity (whether or not Fox Sports considers it "finest HD standard").
First of all, yes, the highest-quality standard rarely "wins"...

But -- keep in mind, once you start looking at the pictures, there really isn't much difference between 1080 and 720, as a practical matter! 1080 is interlaced, and due to the kell factor (and such issues as row pair summation and low-pass filtering) it delivers around 800 discernable lines of resolution (and less on vertical moving objects). 720 is progressive, which means you get all 720 lines.

Horizontally, you're talking about 1440 vs. 1280. 160 pixels different.

Temporally, you're talking about 60% MORE discernible pixels per second for 1280x720x60p than for 1440x(about 400 per field)x60i.

1920 sure sounds better on paper, but in reality? I don't know, an argument could be made for 720 being "finest HD standard". I've got to figure a way to test this...

[David Jimerson]

There's 1080p as well.

But yes, most TVs display 1080 only interlaced -- if they display 1080 at all, which pretty much all plasma screens don't.

However, I do see a difference between 720p and 1080i. But it looks like 720 might become the VHS of HD, especially as plasma seems to be the "it" item.

[Aejaz]

Some good thoughts Barry, David

[ChuckS]

Barry, it’s hard to argue with your logic. :-X All but one of the format wars you mentioned, Beta vs. VHS, DVD-R vs. DVD+R, DVD-RAM vs. DVD-RW, BetaSP vs. MII, is evolutionary, the outcome had little effect on the end user. However, HD is a discontinuous innovation, which requires a new infrastructure and the end user to purchase a new set. This format war is being fought a little further up the food chain HD-DVD vs. blu-ray. Sony [who purchased MGM] and Disney backing blu-ray [giving them approximately 30% of Hollywood’s content] and the other major studios getting behind HD-DVD [or approximately 40%]

Recently I saw the first consumer HD-DVD at BestBuy for $150 it looked great. With the introduction of HD resolution DVD’s, HD will finally gain enough traction and will experience explosive growth. In much the same way that you described the complete product line for the Panasonic cameras, Sony is trying to offer a complete product line of HD consumer electronics – that’s where HDV comes in. This puts Sony in a good position to squeeze Panasonic from both the prosumer and professional sides.

You’re right, it isn’t necessarily the best format or company that wins. Panasonic might well have the best products but once the hyper growth in the HD market begins may not be in a position to meet its shareholders expectations and be relegated to the technology scrap heap along with the 8-track player. Moreover, if you think this can’t happen, do you remember a little company named “Ampex?”

IMHO if Panasonic needs to release a 720P version of the DVX100a.

Just a thought…

[LoveHD]

If there was 1080p/50 then it'd be a no-brainer, but there isn't, so for the fast refresh rate you have to go 720p. And that's what they're likely going to do. Which is no problem for HDV, as it supports 1080/50i as well as 720/50p. But it would be a problem for 1080i camcorder buyers (like FX1 and Z1).

Sony FD Trinitron WEGA KV-34XBR910 34 in. Direct View Flat Screen HDTV-Ready Television.

The TV's native resolution is 1080i, and is capable of displaying 480i, 480p, 720p and of course 1080i. 720p signals are upconverted to 1080i. This is important to note, because on some 1080i TV's, 720p is down converted to 480p.

I don't see any problem for FX1 or Z1U buyers.

[David Jimerson]

Recently I saw the first consumer HD-DVD at BestBuy for $150 it looked great.

What are you talking about? There are no HD-DVD players on the market, and the price point will be WELL above $150. I think what you saw was the Samsung DVD player which “upconverts” its signal. This is not HD-DVD.


With the introduction of HD resolution DVD’s, HD will finally gain enough traction and will experience explosive growth.

Maybe, maybe not. D-VHS flopped, despite initial promise. HD-DVD (or Blu-Ray) will probably not be any more widely accepted until market forces bring the prices down to accessible levels – and that’s probably years away. A lot can happen in that time, including widespread acceptance of an entirely different delivery system, including broadband downloads.

It was said before that quality alone does not drive the market into adopting something, and the same is true for HD. It may NEVER take off simply because it looks better. D-VHS probably never went anywhere, even among HD adopters, because as much as it looked and sounded nicer, it was (*cough*) tape. There was no convenience factor.

The point being, of course, that given the choice between replacing all of their DVD equipment and DVD library in favor of HD-DVD (or Blu-Ray), and, say, downloading content, they might just choose to download – and they might just find SD sufficient. HD might be much further down the road than you may think.

Personally, I do think HD will eventually be adopted, but I think it will be slow.in coming. And I think a better consumer-level format than HDV will come along in that time.

But only time tells the future.

[ChuckS]

Sure, IP distribution (video-on-demand) has a lot of promise, but I would argue that we are a lot further away from that than we are from HD distribution. Remember, HD has been around for 25 years or so and the speed and volume of re-mastering movies and television shows over the past three years for HD is amazing. HD has already taken off.

I had the chance to view an HDDVD being displayed using and HD-DVD player on a DLP projector at IVC (in Burbank) over a year ago. Although they had not set the price the product manager did not think it would be all that expensive.

[David Jimerson]

Hey, I already made my decision -- my first HDTV was purchased in 2001. But that HD has been around in one form or another since the late '70s doesn't mean a whole heck of a lot. Remember all those picture phones which have popped up every 7-10 years or so, which would *really* (this time we mean it, for sure!) drive the market into needing to get made up to answer the phone at 7:00 in the morning? The market moves at its own pace and quite often doesn't make the decisions that we'd like it to, or think it should.

IP distribution is only one example, of course. There could be something no one has thought of, or something being invented in someone's basement as we speak.

What I'm saying is that HD is nice. I personally love it. But it's not THAT revolutionary. It's not the quantum leap that, say, VHS to DVD was. It just looks better, and my observation is that people need something a bit more than a mere quality improvement to move toward it. (Notice the non-adoption of SACD or DVD-Audio by the audiophile market. It sounds better. It's cooler. But it's not much more than what they already had.)

I mean, everyone I've shown HDTV to has marveled at how clear it is. Exactly none has subsequently gone out to buy one.

I do think it's going to be pretty slow, and really don't think HD-DVD is going to move it any faster. Heck, I'll probably be one of the first to buy a player. But that's just me.

[Anhar_Miah]

Barry i could be wrong, but in Europe and the UK the thought over here and i believe other users in the UK will agree with me, 720P in our eyes as nice as it is, its not really a big "step" up in quaility from your avergage 576 line PAL format maybe going from NTSC to 720P there is bigger difference, but it seems most users like watching 1080i over 720P, take a look at euro1080 its the only satelite channel thats broadcasting right now in europe and its 1080i,

i think HD is comming to the UK, BskyB has already said that they will launch HD satelite (mainstream) in the UK, but its planned till 2007 (i think, off the top of my head, please correct me)

Also here in the UK, HD is being "sneaked in" LCD TV are fast becoming *the* must have item and some of them are dual (ie accept PC signal, and have over 720P res) also their are PC garphics card that have DVI outputs, plasmas and large LCD TV are all sneaking it in...

The BBC have shot quite a lot of TV stuff in HD one example was the grid it was aired over in the USA (in HD) in the UK we only had SD, but boy was it sleek, i thought it was shoot on film when i watched it (only to find out later was shoot on HD)

just the other day, my brother was driving in his car using the Pocket PC sat-nav whilst he was having a video call on his Third generation mobile! DAMN it technologys moving too fast..

[scharky]

I think that it is important to remember that while looking at the numbers 576 and 720 there doesn't seem to be a big difference, there is. Right now, unless there is something fishy going on that I don't know about over in the UK, PAL is brodcast as 50i at a resolution of 576lines. Going from a brodcast of an interlaced source to 720progressive lines is a big jump, thats almost double the resolution. So there is a big difference, however, I don't live there so I can't tell you first hand, but I can tell you that there is no way that a PAL signal right now can compare to anything that I have seen on an HDTV at true 720p.

[Barry_Green]

My understanding is that HD is a non-event in Europe right now, and the EBU is preparing to endorse either 1080i or 720p, and 720p is supposedly far in the lead (although it won't be known until they make their recommendation).

As for res/pixels/etc., PAL provides a usable, discernible 7.25 million pixels per second. *720/50p provides over 46 million pixels per second. *That's a difference of about six times as many pixels per second (a lot more than one would think, if just comparing 576 against 720!)

[LoveHD]

Scandinavian countries are moving faster into the HD word than other europian countries.

[ettubaby]

The situation with what Europe will pick is something that will not be settled in a year. I not believe this the DV prosumer market is as big some believe. Looking at annual reports for sony, canon, and panasonics parent company, no one mentions this market. Selling 200,000+ high end DV camcorder will mean several hundred millions earnings, that can be ignore. This market is much much smaller. The current DVCPRO-HD machines that panasonic offers go for $50,000+, sure the exchangeable lens and larger sensors count for something but not for the that large difference. The miniDV cameras, xl2, pd170, vx2100, etc are all consumer cameras, they are high end but consumer cameras

[ettubaby]

I should have said, minidv which is used in all these cameras was conceived as a consumer format.

[Barry_Green]

Depends on how you define "consumer" -- if you're looking to find it on the balance sheet, the PD170 comes from Sony's broadcast & professional division, but the VX2100 comes from the consumer electronics division. Same with JVC and their HD1 and HD10. The DVX comes from Panasonic's broadcast division, but the GS400 etc. come from the consumer division.

Many consumers are buying PD170's and DVX's, that's for sure. But they're marketed and warranted through the professional divisions.

Just for point of clarification, I don't think Sony's selling 200,000 PD170's per year! It's been out for about four years, between the PD150 and PD170, and over the course of that amount of time I think it's reasonable to think they've sold at least 100,000 and more likely 200,000. The DVX has been out for a couple of years, I'm thinking it's likely done 50,000 units on the low end, and maybe 100,000 since introduction two years ago.

200,000 PD150's, at an assumed dealer cost of $3000 (ballpark, who knows?) would put sales at $600 million gross, or maybe $150m per year. How much of that is profit is completely unknown -- maybe they get to keep $500 per camera? If so, that'd be a net profit to the division of around $25 million per year. That's a lot, but for a company that does around $71 billion per year in sales, I don't think it's all that significant a number. I mean, what does $150 million in annual sales represent out of $71 billion in total sales -- 0.2%?

So, in a way I'm agreeing with you -- the prosumer DV market is a nearly insignificant blip on the overall revenues of behemoths like Sony and Panasonic. However, that doesn't mean it's necessarily a tiny market, and Sony could sell $150 million worth of PD150's and have it still represent less than one fifth of one percent of their overall revenues.

But, hey, my numbers could be entirely off as well. It's just guesswork.

[Aejaz]

HD getting headway in UK....yes may be. Actually I dont want to bring in the terminology of 'trans-atlantic divide' *;), as it is more of a political connotation, and perhaps not suitable for discussion on this forum.

As for the comment on HD getting headway in Scandinavia....frankly I know little both about HD and Scandinavia, on this very issue. Hopefully some one more knowledgable will comment. However I do know that since the last 2 years or so, I have been eagerly waiting to see how an HD tv actually looks like. At least till this Christmas it was not available in Sweden.

[LoveHD]

Looking at annual reports for sony, canon, and panasonics parent company, no one mentions this market. Selling 200,000+ high end DV camcorder will mean several hundred millions earnings, that can be ignore.

Sony has already sold 15 000 camcorders with 1080i/24.

[LoveHD]

As for the comment on HD getting headway in Scandinavia....frankly I know little both about HD and Scandinavia, on this very issue. Hopefully some one more knowledgable will comment. However I do know that since the last 2 years or so, I have been eagerly waiting to see how an HD tv actually looks like. At least till this Christmas it was not available in Sweden.

Sweden stops analog broadcasting in 3 major teritories from 2005. Have you seen any of this in Sweden? http://www.pioneer.se/se/product_overview.jsp?category_id=413&taxonomy_id=6 2-63

[Aejaz]

Thanx for the link....but I thought Plasma TVs/LCD TVs were fundamentally different technologies than the HD TV...No?

And as for the analog transmission, I read in the paper the other day that the Swedish government had allowd TV4, one of the leading channels here, to keep on with their analog broadcasts till 2008 ..if I remember correctly.

[Jan_Crittenden]

Ettubaby said:I saw a couple of threads debating the whether to wait for Panasonic to come out with a DVCPRO HD model. Panasonic already has a pretty cheap one that goes to $7000 - $8000.

Which camera would that be? The least expensive DVCPROHD camera I know of is the HDX400 and its price tag is about $45,000.



No one will dispute that DVCPRO is much better, but its bandwidth is higher, the systems required are speced up too. I get the sense that the feeling is the prosum or indi video producers here will determine the winner. But, it just show a lack of understand of marketing.

The systems required are not out of the ordinary, they are FCP and now with Avid's announcement, Express Pro and over firewire.



The Sony f1 is being marketed at the well-heeled techie guy,

The FX1 is a product aimed at the consumer market place, for the Baby Boomer Generation that want to have the latest tech toy to impress their friends. They have more disposable income and they can afford a $3500 camera.


its a rolex. *

In the consumer market place.

HDV will win because Canon, sony, JVC, etc will start making one chip HDV that will clean panasonics clock.

Really? The last one chip that JVC put didn't make even a bump in the road. HDV is a consumer format and I am not sure how long lived, the very same manufacturers that you mention are now working on Disc based cameras for the consumer marketplace and yes those are in the same High Def genre.

As far as pronostications about whether something is going to clean Panasonic's clock or not, I think those are very much like the 5 year old, saying my Dad can beat up your Dad stuff and it really equates to nothing.


The reason is a marketing choice, its a format that will wow the average consumer and does not affects profits in there high end stuff.

There is a huge difference between what the consumer market place wants and what the professional market place needs. You really need to slow down and assess what is what here. When DV started, it seemed to dissolve that differential with the quality that it offered and it did challenge this fine line. But now the lower cost DV cameras no longer address the needs of the professional. A .5 second freeze frame of a drop out will not be a problem for the consumer, its a special effect, ;), but is misery for the professional, especially if it is within the best take of the day.


Panasonic is foolish if they do come out with a lowend model because they will be cannibalizing their lowend ENR biz.

People thought that the DVX would hurt the VariCam sales, it didn't, they said the SDX900 would hurt the VariCam Sales, it didn't, they said the DVX would hurt the SDX sales, it hasn't. In fact, I can site case after case where a DVX shooter, shot his next project on an SDX. Or the SDX900 owner, sold his SDX and bought a VariCam. The number of times that the DVX has gone out as the B roll on the SDX shoot is equal to the number of times it has been there on a Varicam shoot. Has it slowed down the number of Varicams being sold, SDXs or DVXs? No, has it helped? I think so.

The only thing that matters here is whether you know how the system you are choosing is going to handle what you are wanting to shoot and whether it will do that reliably without failure or without wierd artifacts that you can't see until you are back in the edit suite. And that image is going to wow your client.

Frankly, I would take DVCPROHD, where I have the same resolution on each frame, and each frame is independent of the last, with 4:2:2 color and the audio is uncompressed; yes, this is what I would do any day of the week. It gives me the best I can get, at the compression trade-off I am willing to make, and yes we will have a low cost DVCPROHD solution as a countermeasure to HDV. I can't say any more than that. :-X

Best regards,

Jan

[LoveHD]

Thanx for the link....but I thought Plasma TVs/LCD TVs were fundamentally different technologies than the HD TV...No?
HDTV as a definition is a part of the DTV, Digital-TV. As I know the scandinavian countries has a clear deadline here. Norway and Sweden from 2009 will have only digital broadcasting.

SVT (the National TV in Sweden?) is planning to have its new "play out" center with a 720P/50 core operational by August 2006.

"Speaking more cautiously, because his company supplies hardware to broadcasters in both the interlaced and progressive scanning camps, David Bancroft, manager of advance technologies at France's Thomson, acknowledged, "We will probably see interlaced becoming harder and more expensive to support in the long run. For that reason, we would like to see progressive scanning taking hold."

And here is one of the problems. Hollywood wants 1080i/24. Sony already has sold 15 000 cameras with this standard and they push interlaced HDTV. These invested in this technology supports Sony and wants interleced as well.

NHK (Japan) broadcasts more HD programming to a larger installed based of HD TV sets than any other country, all in the 1080/50 interlaced matrix it has been refining since the first analog HDTV broadcast in 1986. Wada said Japan has little reason to change its technology from interlaced to progressive scanning now, because "de-interlacing technologies" are becoming commonly available that, he claimed, will moot the issue. Many high-end flat displays already come with "very sophisticated signal processing systems," he added.

[Anhar_Miah]

i think you guys are forgetting one thing, LCD TV's are progessive all the way.. if it recieves interlace material it HAS to deinterlace it, as i was mentioning earlier some LCD TV are dual function as they can work with PC signal (meaning usual PC resolutions, ie better than SDTV).

The line bewteen PC and TV is becoming extremly fine, have you seen the new Sony PCTV ranges (and other the orther brands that are jumping on the PCTV bandwagon, "Pause Live TV" etc..), these are very popular over here in the UK,

@ Barry, yes you are correct about the differenace between PAL and 720P, but what i'm saying is that User's that have seen 720P Vs 1080i on home projectors (HD -PCTV ) say that 720P aint such a big difference in their eyes,
like you have said yourself, thoery is one thing, in practice its another.

[mgalvan]

Frankly, I would take DVCPROHD, where I have the same resolution on each frame, and each frame is independent of the last, with 4:2:2 color and the audio is uncompressed; yes, this is what I would do any day of the week. *It gives me the best I can get, at the compression trade-off I am willing to make, and yes we will have a low cost DVCPROHD solution as a countermeasure to HDV. *I can't say any more than that. :-X

Best regards,

Jan



Woah momma .... the bomb has been dropped ... watchout now :D

[ettubaby]

Sony has already sold 15 000 camcorders with 1080i/24.
where did you get those numbers?

*


200,000 PD150's, at an assumed dealer cost of $3000 (ballpark, who knows?) would put sales at $600 million gross, or maybe $150m per year. *How much of that is profit is completely unknown -- maybe they get to keep $500 per camera? *If so, that'd be a net profit to the division of around $25 million per year. *That's a lot, but for a company that does around $71 billion per year in sales, I don't think it's all that significant a number. *I mean, what does $150 million in annual sales represent out of $71 billion in total sales -- 0.2%?


$25 million profit that is very high, comparing it again sales is not fair, compare again net profit which was 400 million.



Which camera would that be? *The least expensive DVCPROHD camera I know of is the HDX400 and its price tag is about $45,000.

Yeah, I made a mistake, I was looking at the DVCPRO camera, but I did corrected later.


Really? *The last one chip that JVC put didn't make even a bump in the road. *HDV is a consumer format and I am not sure how long lived, the very same manufacturers that you mention are now working on Disc based cameras for the consumer marketplace and yes those are in the same High Def genre.
*
As far as pronostications about whether something is going to clean Panasonic's clock or not, I think those are very much like the 5 year old, saying my Dad can beat up your Dad stuff and it really equates to nothing. *


Its a bad choice of words, But miniDV was conceived as a consumers and sure indy producers or no budget projects. I know people who have finagled camera, software, etc from viacom and others.

Something I've seen, I'm truly an audio/music guy, is productions where they don't budget the camera/DP, but put an ad on craigslist or others boards and get like 30 guys, with equip working for free! We had one guy who was commuting from Phily to NYC for a free. There are a lot of "consumers" wishing or trying to break into the pro market, too bad that they are destroying any opportunity of making a living doing that.

[LoveHD]

where did you get those numbers?


IBC 2004 i Amsterdam. EBU technical group. BTW they have changed the suggested standard from 720p/50 only to 720p/50 or 1080p/50.

TF1 (French) has plans to use Mpeg4 as a standard.

[David Jimerson]

TF1 (French) has plans to use Mpeg4 as a standard.

Of course. The French. ::) :D

[LoveHD]

BTW, of the 22 US HDTV broadcasters 19 already using 1080i.

[24Peter]

and yes we will have a low cost DVCPROHD solution as a countermeasure to HDV. I can't say any more than that.

That's the most important news that came out of this thread for me... :o

[David Jimerson]

That's the most important news that came out of this thread for me... :o


It *is* a significant piece of info.

[ettubaby]

IBC 2004 i Amsterdam. EBU technical group. BTW they have changed the suggested standard from 720p/50 only to 720p/50 or 1080p/50.

Was that in Sept?

[Antoine_Fabi]

he he...

It seems i wasn't so crazy 3 months ago when i "predicted" a affordable DVCProHD camcorder from Panasonic.

I tought it was simply logical, i still think so.
If the DVCProHD is affordable (camcorder and deck), then bye bye HDV...at least for any serious work. The droupout problem on the HDV format (15 frames GOPs) will keep it from real professional work i think. I mean, i would not risk to hit a 1/2 second freeze in an important shot.

[ettubaby]

Jan, if LoveHD is right and sony has sold 15000 F1, you guy better hurry.


People thought that the DVX would hurt the VariCam sales, it didn't, they said the SDX900 would hurt the VariCam Sales, it didn't, they said the DVX would hurt the SDX sales, it hasn't. *In fact, I can site case after case where a DVX shooter, shot his next project on an SDX. *Or the SDX900 owner, sold his SDX and bought a VariCam. *The number of times that the DVX has gone out as the B roll on the SDX shoot is equal to the number of times it has been there on a Varicam shoot. *Has it slowed down the number of Varicams being sold, SDXs or DVXs? *No, has it helped? *I think so.


I know several people have bought DVXs or xl1/2 out of their own pocket, including me, and who don't make a living off the camera. Do you know the demographics of the typical DVX user?

[LoveHD]

Jan, if LoveHD is right and sony has sold 15000 F1, you guy better hurry.


Are you expecting FX1 cameras in CNBC's studios? LOL.
If you want an entry level camera a HDC-X300 is an ideal solution for broadcast and professional customers.

[Aejaz]

SVT (the National TV in Sweden?) is planning to have its new "play out" center with a 720P/50 core operational by August 2006.



But what about 1080/50 format? heard anything about it...in Europe?

[LoveHD]

This 720p/50 or 1080p/50 is broadcasting. You can use what ever you can in production. I guess because the low cost of the Sony's HDV camcorders, they will be used in many productions. We've seen it starting with the first VX1000.

Many of the high-value Soaps were shot using 35 mm and converted to the target television standard. These programmes are now shot in high definition at the film-friendly frame rate of 1920 x 1080 x 24p or 25/30p. The best what can happend to us is to get a 1080p/50 camcorder and recorder for something like 10-12.000 (20.000 is also good). It could give us a compability with tv-stations and a very high quality for filmtransfer.

[ettubaby]

Soaps are shot on video, several are done here. high-value soap is a oxymoron

[Barry_Green]

1080/50p would be the ideal -- but I don't think there are any 1080/50p products in existence, are there?

When you say 15,000 1080i/24 cameras... Where do you get that number? Has that been announced in some official Sony release? That's quite an impressive figure. No doubt 1080i is big business in Japan and the US, and isn't going away, even if Europe chooses 720p.


$25 million profit that is very high, comparing it again sales is not fair, compare again net profit which was 400 million.
Well, yeah, but again let's talk apples to apples. First, Sony's net profit was about $800 million for the last 12 months. But that's NET profit, whereas the $25 million I speculated was GROSS profit; you still have to subtract out advertising, shipping, r&d writeoffs, royalties to Zeiss, and who knows what all else... so that $25 million Gross might reflect maybe $10 million NET. And $10 million out of $800 million wouldn't be significant enough to warrant much attention, would it? It'd be just over 1%.

In any case, we're speculating wildly on figures that nobody knows because they're kept private. And I freely admit I could be off by 2x or 3x either way and not be surprised... I'd just be surprised if I was off by 10x.

[ettubaby]

Ok, so I wrong, don't feel bad, Jan has put it out that Panasonic will come out with DVCPRO HD. The question know is when, and what will it do to the resale of DVX. I think the price will be comparable the
z1. I hear that the next imovie will be supporting HDV ;)

[David Jimerson]

I doubt Panasonic is necessarily basing too many of its decisions around what they will do to sales of the DVX. The DVX will one day be discontinued as time marches on. I think a DVCPRO-HD 24p prosumer camera would make a rather nice DVX200, myself . . .

[Barry_Green]

Jan's announcement here isn't really news, remember that they've already shown a prototype of a DVCPRO-HD prosumer model... plus they've been lining up editing programs to natively support DVCPRO-HD on the desktop (they already have FCP and Avid going native with DVCPRO-HD!) *But it's very interesting to hear actual confirmation that it will be here, and it isn't just a mockup for trade shows!

The big questions are a) what features, b) when, and c) how much. *Those are the things we don't know. *It could be the end of next year for all we know, or it could be at this NAB, or ... well, I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Will consumers adopt it? *Maybe not. Probably not. Will prosumers? I would certainly think so. I guess it depends on what a feeder deck to the NLE will cost... the cheapest DVCPRO-HD deck is currently $21,000... but then again, with a sub-$6000 camera, there should be a corresponding sub-$6,000 deck announced too, hopefully... but I expect that DVCPRO-HD would be much more appealing to broadcasters, high-end production companies, TV stations, etc. than HDV would be. *It remains to be seen if the Panasonic camera holds up its end of the bargain, feature-wise... but with the recent string of out-of-the-park home runs they've been hitting, I have little doubt that the new camera will be superb as well. *And I'd be willing to bet an eyeball that it'll be native 24P! *(note, I didn't say I'd bet *my* eyeball...) *;D

Somehow I doubt we'll be seeing $399 1-CCD DVCPRO-HD cameras at Circuit City. *So I do think that if there's going to be mass adoption of HD camcorders by the consumers, HDV is probably going to be the format they choose; and if there's a mass market for HDV cameras, surely Panasonic would join in. *But for pro's, broadcasters, serious production companies, and serious indie filmmakers, the prospect of an affordable 24P DVCPRO-HD camera is indeed tantalizing.

[ettubaby]

Well, yeah, but again let's talk apples to apples. *First, Sony's net profit was about $800 million for the last 12 months. *But that's NET profit, whereas the $25 million I speculated was GROSS profit; you still have to subtract out advertising, shipping, r&d writeoffs, royalties to Zeiss, and who knows what all else... so that $25 million Gross might reflect maybe $10 million NET. *And $10 million out of $800 million wouldn't be significant enough to warrant much attention, would it? *It'd be just over 1%.


I think you are reworking the number there. Panasonics profit were half that and Sony's mostly come from gaming and its entertainment divisions. I think they sell a few thousand. You said 100000 DVX sold. They update the camera this year with "A" so lets say that they've sold 40000 this year @ $2700 pre, thats $108,000,000 in earnings. Advertising is limited to trade rags (DV, RES, etc...) low readership, $50,000 should cover that. The dev team is probably 10 people seeing most of the tech exists within the company. The cost of the molds was recovers in earlier years seeing it hasn't changed. Shipping is negligible. Its Lecia, not Zeiss, and they provide them with cameras, wouldn't be surprise if they don't own them. Zeiss is owned by a japanese company. Manufacturing its their bigest cost. No matter how its slices the profits are hugh. I deal mostly with audio and things I've purchased that get advertised in Keyboard, Emusician, Recording, etc, that I thought sold a shitload, they only sell a few thousand.

[LoveHD]

Sony
Total Revenue $71,215,715
Cost of Revenue $48,052,948
Gross Profit $23,162,767
Net Income $840,855
Net Income Applicable to Common Shareholders $840,855
isn't it correct?

the 15 000 1080i/24 unit sold is a statement comming from EBU. Sony and other partners didn't like EBU's suggestion to use 720p as the HDTV standard in Europe. EBU said these broadcasters don't want to support 720p because they want to defence the investment they already made.

[ettubaby]

Sony
Total Revenue $71,215,715
Cost of Revenue $48,052,948
Gross Profit $23,162,767
Net Income $840,855
Net Income Applicable to Common Shareholders $840,855
isn't it correct?
*
the 15 000 1080i/24 unit sold is a statement comming from EBU. *Sony and other partners didn't like EBU's suggestion to use 720p as *the HDTV standard in Europe. EBU said these broadcasters don't want to support 720p because they want to defence the investment they already made.
*

I think you forget to add a couple of zeros.



IBC 2004 i Amsterdam. EBU technical group
wasn't the ibc2004 amsterdam in september, two month before the fx1 was released?

[LoveHD]

I think you forget to add a couple of zeros.
No, I didn't. Annual Income Statement (values in 000's)




wasn't the ibc2004 amsterdam in september, two month before the fx1 was released?
Yes, but they are not talking about Fx1. Can you imagine MSNBC's HDTV studio life broadcasting with FX1 or even with a DVCPRO-HD (mini for 3-5k)?

I guess a HDC-950 - 24p , or a HDC-910 is more suitable.

"NEW YORK, Feb. 13, 2003 - Sony Electronics today introduced a high-definition (HD) studio camera that makes it more attractive than ever for broadcasters and program producers to migrate from standard definition to HD."

[Barry_Green]

I think you are reworking the number there. *Panasonics profit were half that and Sony's mostly come from gaming and its entertainment divisions. *
You lost me there. I was talking solely about Sony's revenues and suspected profits.


I think they sell a few thousand.
A few thousand total? As in, you believe there's only maybe 5,000 PD170's sold? Wow, we would disagree if that were the case. I am certain the numbers are much higher than that.

[ettubaby]

I just though we were talking about dvx, not the sony, The earning I initial gave were panasonic parent company not sonys. In term of pd170 you said 200000 units sold, so you say earning of the pd170 are 1/2 bill, but yes over a couple of years... three. They are still raking it in. wow

[Barry_Green]

All the numbers I was listing were for Sony, yes (which is why I said Zeiss, etc).

I'm sure the sales of the PD170 are a lot lower than for the 150; for the 150 they were pretty much unchallenged for 2 or 3 years, it was THE camera to have until the DVX and now XL2; the PD170 got a $300 rebate slapped on it almost immediately. I'm sure it's still selling to some customers, but I don't think it's drawing nearly the sales numbers that the 150 used to.

Sony's sales overall are down and their market share is declining in several areas, but their profits are doubled this year vs. last year, apparently they're making good margins on the product they're moving. *I don't know what's driving this, but they're selling something that's got good profit margins, which is always a good sign for a company.

[Multi-Media]

Hi Barry,
This thread reminds me of the old Betamax V/S VHS debate that a lot of you may not be old enough to remember...
Sony Betamax was definitely better quality... but VHS got more (cheaper) players out there first and the rest is history.
Dale

[Barry_Green]

... and VHS allowed for longer record times. That, I believe, was the clincher. When customers saw they could get six hours on one tape, they didn't even ask any further questions...

[xander76]

I guess it depends on what a feeder deck to the NLE will cost... the cheapest DVCPRO-HD deck is currently $21,000... but then again, with a sub-$6000 camera, there should be a corresponding sub-$6,000 deck announced too, hopefully...

Well, the DVCPROHD mockup that Panasonic has shown at tradeshows says it is a P2 camera, which means it records to memory cards. If that is the case, my guess is that there will be no tape mechanism at all and therefore no feeder deck.

It would be nice to have a deck for backing up footage to tape, but hard drives are getting cheaper and cheaper these days.

[Zim]

So why is 720p better than 1080i?

[Barry_Green]

It's a different look. It's only "better" if you like the look of progressive-scan instead of interlaced.

1080i looks like conventional interlaced video (like the news, or soap operas); only higher-resolution.

720p, when played at a 24p frame rate, can look like film (or DVX/XL2 24p footage).

The HDV specification doesn't allow for 1080p, so if you want to use HDV, you to make have a choice: progressive-scan at 720, or interlaced at 1080...

[satellitebunny]

This has been discussed before. But DV spec "doesn't allow" for progressive data on tape either. Still, it's possible to put progressive frames into interlaced DV tape. So, if you shoot 1080p and put it to 1080i HDV tape or other media, it will still look the same, as the only thing that matters is, if the material was progressive when it was captured.
So, it would be technically possible to do a HDV 1080 24p camera, just as it was done on DVX and XL2 on interlaced DV spec. (But, I for one would be much happier with another format than HDV, as the 25 Mb/s isn't enough in extreme conditions.)

[Barry_Green]

Not only is it technically possible, but JVC has already announced plans to do so (with their shoulder-mount, 2/3", 3-CCD ENG-style HDV camera). I should have mentioned that, thanks for bringing it up.

[PaulC]

What is the cost / space of the P2 cards versus DVCPRO HD tape? I'm thinking of a scenario where one does not have access to download footage from the P2 cards and wondering how expensive that would get. Hence, wondering if they really will put P2 in the new prosumer Panasonic, or tape. I suppose both is very unlikely?

[Barry_Green]

I'm hoping for both...

[princigalli]

I would prefer 720p to 1080i anytime. At least we'd have 720 real lines. I am amazed and saddened that some people are still pushing interlace. Why do people take such bad decisions? On the other hand, the whole worls works this way. If people would use their brains a little more there would be no poverty, no wars, and of course no interlace.

[PaulC]

Barry: I just think that the consumer part of "prosumer" is not going to take to a P2 only solution, given the high cost to storage ratio for that medium. Actually, anyone who isn't always going to have a hard drive around (or lug some other device) is in the same boat. I do like the idea of P2, and if I had an option to use one or the other at any time that would be nice...but are there any pro models that even do that? If I had to choose between only using one format, it would have to be tape. How do others feel the issue of tape vs P2?

[Shaw]

I'd go P2 all the way

[PaulC]

But how much more expensive is P2 than tape, by storage unit? And, how much storage of HD footage does one P2 card have? Sure' I'd like P2 also, but not at any price. It would be nice to be able to use a cam without having to constantly download material somewhere.

[xray]

P2 is solid-state memory-based cards. No moving parts, no dust or moisture problems.Today the biggest card is 4 GB and holds 16 minutes of DV signal. (25 mb/s).

I dont like tape, its a crime to preserve. But its an easy and cheap way to store and save the original for a short period. If you have huge digital data you need blue ray or hd-dvd or harddisk to dump your P2 cards on.
If you are in the field, maybe you can use the biggest Ipod ( 60 Gb) to dump it on...

So you can use the P2 cards again. In the future you see the memory cards price per GB will go down. For now, tapes and dvd recordables are cheaper.

[Barry_Green]

Well, we'd have to differentiate P2 away from DVCPRO-HD to keep the discussion on track. I don't expect that we'll ever see DVCPRO-HD "consumer" cameras (i.e., $399 JVC 1-CCD models at Circuit City)... I think that section of the market would go to HDV, since a consumer-only company like Sharp has already signed on to HDV.

So the question is, would the consumer agree to a P2-only style of recording? I don't know... they've adapted to it for digital cameras (I mean, not that there was ever a tape option for digital cameras!) But P2 isn't designed primarily for consumers or even conventional pro shooters, is it? It's my understanding that Panasonic promotes P2 primarily to news shooters, and in that context it's enormously valuable.

If I could only have one or the other... hmmm... obviously we all want tape to go away, as well as capture times, but tape is *sooooo* cheap compared to hard-disc or memory recording... hmmm... I think if Panasonic releases a P2-only system, intended for consumer use, that would probably be the wrong move. Give us both. Gotta have both. For example, recording plays or concerts or whatever (keeping in touch with Panasonic's "make a living/flip a switch/make a movie" slogan) to make a living, you just have to have long recording times, and that means tape. Even if you could afford enough P2 cards to go for an hour, what if you're doing a 3-camera shoot? A $10 tape just can't be beat.

If we can have only one or the other, I'm ashamed to say it'll have to be tape, until P2 cards can store an hour and cost $50. Hopefully (fingers crossed, begging and pleading Panasonic) it'll do both. I would *so* love to never have to deal with tape again! But as a practical matter, I think tape's going to be with us for a while.

[SimonMW]

Perhaps BluRay and P2 combined?

Speaking in the here and now, even if I don't have seperate deck I can copy video, picture and other supplementary files to the XDCAM and take the camera to wherever I need to and upload via file transfer to their machine.

P2 would be fantastic for news, but the ultimate would be a Blu-Ray and P2 combined camera. All the advantages of cost of non linear disc based storage for longer drawn out projects, and the advantages of even more speed of P2 for short form projects.

[xander76]

If I could only have one or the other... hmmm... obviously we all want tape to go away, as well as capture times, but tape is *sooooo* cheap compared to hard-disc or memory recording...

I'm not convinced that tape is always cheaper than P2 in recording DVCPROHD; it depends on what kind of shooting you're going to do, how much you're going to do, and when you intend to start doing it. For right now, I think P2 narrative shooting is about as cost effective at tape, and P2 documentary shooting will be as cost effective as tape in 2-3 years.

My back-of-the-envelope calculation is as follows: Let's assume that, after recording to a P2 card, you dump the footage to the new LaCie F800 disk array set to work at RAID 5 (750 GB for $1500, or $2/GB). Since an hour of 24p DVCPRO HD at 40Mbps takes up about 20GB, that means that a P2 downloaded to RAID solution would cost about $40/hour of footage. Now, going over to B&H, we can see that a 64 minute DVCPROHD tape costs $45. P2 and RAID are actually cheaper.

What's more, after you've filled up the LaCie RAID drive, you can buy a new set of 4 drives for about $1000, which is $1.33/GB, or about $28/hour of footage. Finally, if you really wanted to bring your variable costs down, you could invest in a $1100-$1300 data tape drive which can archive as much as 200GB to a $50 tape, which is a cost of $.25/GB or $5/hour of footage.

There are, of course, some downsides to the P2 workflow as I've described it. First off, right now 4GB is the size of the largest card, and if you are in a situation where you can't download your P2 cards to your RAID and clear them out during your shoot, you may be significantly impacted. Narrative shoots may be able to expect to have a laptop & RAID on set or to have a low enough shooting ratio to confine their day's footage to a few P2 cards, whereas documentary shoots probably will not. Second, the fixed costs of this workflow are non-trivial (however many 4GB cards for $600? $1000?; a RAID array for $1500; a data tape drive for $1300). When compared to the cost of a DVCPROHD deck, though, these costs seem pretty reasonable. Also, the cost of RAID arrays, hard drives, and tape drives keeps coming down because of major competition. Third, if higher frame rates are supported in a prosumer P2 DVCPROHD cam (60i @ 50Mbps or 60p @ 100Mbps), then clearly the cost-effectiveness of the P2-RAID solution will suffer.

According to Panasonic, they expect flash memory to double in size each year. If we assume that this (perhaps optimistic) conjecture is right, then in 3 years we will have 32GB P2 cards, which would amount to 96 minutes of 24p DVCPRO HD. At that point, high shooting ratio documentary-style run-and-gun shooting will be more than possible, especially if the camera has 2 or 4 P2 slots. For a lot of projects, 4 P2 slots with an 8GB card each (for a total of 2 hours of footage without reloads) will be enough, and this should in theory be available within a year.


If we can have only one or the other, I'm ashamed to say it'll have to be tape, until P2 cards can store an hour and cost $50.

I agree with you that it will be a long time before P2 cards are cheap enough to be a one-use technology, but that isn't what they are designed for. If you assume that the 4GB card sells for $600 (a number I pulled out of the air based on the fact that 4 1GB SD cards cost $300), then P2 runs at an eye-popping $3000/hour of footage. Even if flash memory doubles each year at the same price, it would take on the order of 6 years to bring the cost down to $50/hour of footage. You have to remember, though, that that's not at all what P2 cards are designed for. P2 cards are designed as multi-use objects that are downloaded into IT systems. In the short term, the per hour costs for an IT-based solution are around the same as the costs for video tape. In the long term, IT systems will become much cheaper, though, because of the technological advances constantly being made in the computer world.

[Neil Rowe]

.. p2 is obviously cheaper in the long run because you only buy it once. compared to the continual expense of tape. the cost of storing the data is a non issue as far as raid drives and all that razmatazz a goo goo ,because you would need that same equivelent setup to store the video whether you capture from tape or dump it from p2. *although at the moment the P2 storage is rather small for dvcproHD requirements, and the ROI wouldnt bee seen for quite some time after the purchase of the p2 card. .. so it makes it somewhat impractical for HD usage , and *i would certainly *appreciate a tape drive in place still as well. if you *can store and output SD bandwith from the p2 as well.. its killer. *i certainly would love a 4gb or larger p2 card to come with the purchase of a cam though. i dont always need an hour of straight recording time. * all in all id love to have p2 so i can advance with it and take advantage of all the nice things it brings to the table. buit id still like a tape drive to be able to do things the old fashioned way if i cant afford, or arent ready to make a big p2 investment yet.. i certainly will in the future, but 4gb is a little small for HD needs. *like barry said when the price comes down , and i can get an hour per card im surely going to be buying them up. even at 600.00 per card.(i hope its alot less). you only need to use it apx 12-13 times to pay for its cost in tapes. *thats not a big risk for the investment.. im sure we would even shoot alot of things we normally wouldnt and use the equipment more simply because were not wearing the heads down. *..anyway.. i think we need them both right now.. a little later, and ill be happy to get rid of the old tape drive for a large storage p2 anyday.

[xander76]

the cost of storing the data is a non issue as far as raid drives and all that razmatazz a goo goo ,because you would need that same equivelent setup to store the video whether you capture from tape or dump it from p2.

I disagree. A RAID array isn't necessary in a current DV25 set up because you have video tape back up. I don't have a RAID array; if one of my media drives goes down, I just replace it and recapture the footage from tape. With P2, there is no video tape to go back to, so you absolutely need a RAID setup.

Also, I personally like to archive all of my raw footage when I'm done with a project so I can recut the project at any point. With videotape, this just means that I keep all the camera originals. With P2 I'll have to either archive by removing my RAID platters and storing them or archiving to data tape. For those who don't care about archiving original footage, P2 is fantastic, and one card will repay itself quickly. For those of us who want to keep all of our footage, though, there will be fixed costs for archiving hardware and variable costs for archiving media, whether those be RAID platters or data tape. As I showed above, though, the variable costs will end up being lower with RAID or data tape archiving than with video tape archiving.


even at 600.00 per card.(i hope its alot less). you only need to use it apx 12-13 times to pay for its cost in tapes.

Except that a 4GB card hold 12 minutes of 24p DVCPROHD, whereas a $45 tape holds 64 minutes. You'd have to use the P2 card about 70 times to record the same amount of footage as $600 worth of tape.

[Shaw]

Assuming the drive you loose isn't the one which contains your NLE file. If so no amount of recapturing will bring back the hours spent.

[satellitebunny]

P2 might be great, as it would mean that Panasonic would have to give us something that we really want, in order to sell us the new medium. DVCPRO-HD is a step in the right direction, but what I really want is 1920X1080, 16:9, square pixels, 100Mb/s or 50Mb/s or variable bitrate, one super35mm sized CMOS, interchangeable 35mm photo lenses or four-thirds system lenses (and then ofcourse 4/3" CMOS), or atleast the most important feature of them all: A FULLY MANUAL FOCUS RING WITH END STOPS. Oh, and a CMOS with multiple exposure layers for film like dynamic range.

Oh, now I got too excited. My point was only that if Panasonic is going to get this new medium through, they will have to make a better camera, with better qualities than the other manufacturers. And I hope they understand that.

[tony404]

my friend told me if I shoot my short films on minidv pretty soon no one will accept it ,they will all want hd . How much more life do you see minidv having for the prosumer?

[Barry_Green]

At least five years.

[Jeff_Chandler]

As usual, Barry is right on, and for event and wedding videographers, I think you can easily double that estimate.

[scharky]

Man, I still see wedding videographers advertising that they are shooting on VHS-C. :( Why would you advertise that?

[David Jimerson]

my friend told me if I shoot my short films on minidv pretty soon no one will accept it ,they will all want hd . How much more life do you see minidv having for the prosumer?

Who's the "no one" who will "accept" it? I'm not sure what that means.

[Neil Rowe]

xander76,

you bring up a good point about archival. thats somthing i had overlooked because for my purposes its not a real issue for the work or play i do at this time, but I can certainly see where it could become an issue given certain types of projects. either way, i would really enjoy the cam having P2 for when its applicable, and tape still available to use until mass long term storage is cheap enough to toss the tape.