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View Full Version : Looking ahead... Just thinking about the future



BobDiaz
01-02-2009, 02:10 PM
I got to thinking about the product life of the DVX-100 and realized that it first started shipping in October 2002; about 6 years ago. Interestingly enough, it's still being sold, but with the HMC-150 out, the DVX-100b must be reaching the end of its product life.

Now there's no law that says that Panasonic HAS to introduce a replacement camera every 6 years or that an "A" model comes out 2 years later ("B" in another 2 years) , but humor me and assume that they will follow that pattern with the HMC-150.

That would mean that the HMC-150a should start shipping around the end of 2010. However, with the poor economy, maybe this could delay things to late 2011.

By NAB 2014, we'll all be talking about the new "xxx-xxx" camera that should be replacing the HMC-150. Hard to say what the higher end cameras will do, but I'll bet that 12 bit (or higher) recording will be common by then. So, maybe the lower end will be pushing 10 bit recording.

The price per GB will continue to drop for HCSD cards. In 3 years, 2012, the price for a 32GB HCSC card will be about the same as an 8GB card today and the price for an 8GB card in 2012 will be around the same price as a 2GB card today.

In 3 years, with memory cards so cheap, it will be hard to justify using tape. Which is why I think that in 3 years, tape will do a slow fade to black. It won't go away overnight, but over the years its use will dimish.

I think that most know that the upcoming Full Power Analog Shutdown on February 17, 2009 is not going to go well with some people. However, once we get through the mess, more and more people are going to be watching HD. Not that the Analog shutdown forces any station to broadcast in HD, but more and more stations seem to be switching to HD.

Blu-ray prices have already dropped and I see no reason why they won't drop even more in 2009. Maybe 2010 will be the year that most people buying a player will buy Blu-ray....


Well that's my guess for the future... If only I could see what the S&P500 would look like during that time period, I'd be a happy camper... :)



Bob Diaz

Bassman2003
01-02-2009, 04:28 PM
The Blu-ray adoption can't get here fast enough for me.

I hope 2009 brings sub $150 players and lower movie costs.

It is a shame to keep delivering on DVD with the great images from these cameras.

studio1972
01-02-2009, 05:12 PM
The Blu-ray adoption can't get here fast enough for me.

I hope 2009 brings sub $150 players and lower movie costs.

It is a shame to keep delivering on DVD with the great images from these cameras.

I'm not sure Blu-Ray will ever take off tbh, I think it may have already missed the boat.

Hidef1080
01-02-2009, 07:25 PM
Once people get hooked on HD due to the digital switch over, I think we'll see more Blu-ray.

I don't see any new disc formats coming out soon and in fact I think Blu-ray will be the last disc format.

sewolla
01-02-2009, 08:57 PM
Personally I love Blu Ray.
Got a Panasonic BD30(???) last year and love it. Filmed the Finals of last years NHRA WinterNationals, in Pomona with my XHA1, and that really put the hook in me. This year I hope to dramatically increase my BD disc production. Well....anything would be an improvement over last year's sales of ZERO BD. All SD's last year.

ESTEBEVERDE
01-02-2009, 09:08 PM
Moore's Law would predict that all of this will happen faster.

I think the pressure from the likes of Nikon, Canon, and RED (Yes RED) will accelerate development.

Mike Harvey
01-02-2009, 09:13 PM
Got a Panasonic BD30(???) last year and love it.

The great thing about it for HMC150 owners is you can just pop the SDHC card in it and it plays whatever resolution/framerate you shot at. I was a Blu-Ray holdout, but man I love that thing.

BobDiaz
01-02-2009, 09:18 PM
The Blu-ray adoption can't get here fast enough for me.

I hope 2009 brings sub $150 players and lower movie costs.

It is a shame to keep delivering on DVD with the great images from these cameras.

It is possible, around Christmas, some Blu-ray players did drop to under $200. Right now Circuit City has a close out on a Panasonic that's a bit above $200 and Best Buy has one at around $250. Walmart has the Samsung BD-P1500 at $248.

So we may see the price drop once again by December....

WD does make the WD TV HD media player for $129.99 list and it does go on sale for $99 at times. This requires a USB Hard Drive or USB Memory Stick.

The need ffor HD Playback is high, so we may see a lot more options appear.


Bob Diaz

ullanta
01-03-2009, 12:26 AM
I'm not sure about "need"...

Anyway, for me, Blu-ray adoption is all about cheap and reliable BD-R media! When I can buy a Taiyo or Mitsui printable BD-R for about $2-$3 in bulk, I'll make the leap.

studio1972
01-03-2009, 05:05 AM
Once people get hooked on HD due to the digital switch over, I think we'll see more Blu-ray.

I don't see any new disc formats coming out soon and in fact I think Blu-ray will be the last disc format.

I can get HD right out of my Apple TV without having to buy any kind of disk, or I could even download HD of bit torrent if I wanted to. XBox 360 has similar features and is being pushed heavily now. Surely this is the future. I would love to be able to deliver my wedding videos online, but it's just a bit too pricey at the moment, but that will change in the next couple of years.

OK, the quality isn't as good as BR, but it's good enough for most people not to notice, and my TV is 720p native (as most HDTVs are) so there's no real advantage in 1080p.

BR is a great technology, and I am seriously thinking about delivering BR content myself if FCS3 supports it, but I'm not sure if it will ever become mainstream, it seems like it is squeezed between DVD and downloaded HD.

As for new disk formats, I guess there will always be a call for some kind of optical disk for data storage, and maybe BR will fill this niche for a while before something better arrives.

Hidef1080
01-03-2009, 07:33 AM
Don't get wrong here, I'm all for Blu-ray.
Even back in the HD-DVD vs Blu-ray days I was pushing Blu-ray but as SD, Micro SD and like become easier to produce, the appeal for disc will drop even further.
The standard hard drive as we know it is peaking and solid state hard drives are become better, cheaper and faster without generating the heat and using as much power.


Following “normal” tech life cycles that Bob start us off with, Blu-ray should remain with us for at least 8 to 10 years and I think within the next 6 to 8 years computing and memory as we know it will be rather different.
Optical disc are going the way of the floppy disc [if you guys are old enough to remember those].


As far as online delivery goes I only see that as an option but people will most likely still want something physical.
I believe that physical thing will be flash based and not optical disc based in near future but for today Blu-ray will become the standard optical disc.

David Saraceno
01-03-2009, 09:31 AM
I can get HD right out of my Apple TV without having to buy any kind of disk

I guess we disagree on this. I don't see AppleTV being HD at its current data stream limitations.

Plus, much of what blu ray suggests is delivering HD to individual clients.

William_Robinette
01-03-2009, 09:58 AM
As much as a I love the convenience of streaming Netflix and the like over an Xbox 360, or what ever other online HD delivery you choose, I think because of the current data bandwidth limitations and streaming files at 2mbps compared to the what 25mbps(?) of blu-ray the quality difference is still enough for me to go blu-ray. I just picked up a PS3 as a player/meadia center alone and I love it. I'm only looking at 720p on my 42" right now, but being able to step up to 1080p no problem is a great plus in the future.

Basically what I am saying is that while I think blu-ray is less convinient then online content, the quality difference is still enough for me to put with it (and it's high prices).

ilauzirika
01-03-2009, 10:35 AM
And we must take into account that DVD or by extent BD (maybe in the future) sales are well stablished and can be profitable for their rights holder, whereas the shares of online or streaming market are yet to be well defined. That could led to some waiting time before the internet and streaming market flourish....

That's my way of viewing it, as technology isn't the only factor...