64GB-P2 announced... so WHEN will prices of 32GB etc. drop? [Archive] - DVXuser.com -- The online community for filmmaking

HDkilledFILM.

03-02-2008, 06:57 PM

Funny but I'm so used to working with two 4 gig cards that I might just buy 6 more of them when the prices drop. I mean call me a skeptic but if you lost 64gigs of shooting.... wow.... I like to import once the 4gig cards are full and then review the footage, and then back up the footage (And even doing that on my most recent footage I lost things) to a cold external HD. So I can't imagine the horror of someone who waits for the 64gig card to fill up at the end of a day of shooting when an error occurs and they've already re-formatted the card... Just my opinion but hey a day of shooting lost is a pain in the *ss.

wgzn

03-02-2008, 07:12 PM

i agree with that HDkilled! im to a point where most of my needs are very well met by the speed and mobility of a pair of 16's.

if i need non-stop longform. id probably shoot to firestore or direct to a machine anyway...

not that a 32 or 64 wouldnt be handy just to keep in the camera for eng/one-off things.

Justyn

03-02-2008, 07:23 PM

That is a good point, but the 4 gigs will have to be purchased used. I'd love to have 10 4 gigs.. and that's what I've been using too. I do also like to be able to back everything up to DVDs...

Barry_Green

03-02-2008, 07:31 PM

Well.... but the 16GB card got its price reduction BEFORE the 32GB card was out...
No it didn't. The 16GB card has never had a price change, it was introduced at $900 and it's still $900.

I remember also that prices can drop as soon as the new card is announced.
Prices can drop whenever they feel like it. They're not necessarily tied to any event. But the 8GB card did drop from $1200 to $700 when the 16 was introduced, and we expect that the same kind of thing will happen when the 64 is introduced. But announced does not = introduced, and the 64 isn't out yet. When it is, I expect that the 32 and 16 will have price drops.

But the 8GB dropped from $1400 to $1200 in January 2006, with no other announcement or external event causing it. So there's no way to know for sure when prices will change.

Barry_Green

03-02-2008, 07:31 PM

;1209954']i'm sure they'll want to get the 8gbs off the warehouse shelves before the 64's come rolling out. by then who will want a 8gb anyways?
I think the 8's already been discontinued long ago. The 16 and 32 are the current models.

mikkowilson

03-02-2008, 09:29 PM

;1209954'][...] who will want a 8gb anyways?

Any news organisation.

a 8gb P2 card is a ~30min DV/DVCPRO-25 load. And that's PLENTY for an average 2 min news package.

Many people have expressed their hopes that as cards get larger, the smaller cards (like the 16s) don't go away, but rather simply fall in cost until they become commodity media. There's a major market for lower priced cards even with shorter run times.

I agree with that hope.

- Mikko

wgzn

03-02-2008, 10:26 PM

from what ive seen. trying to buy last weeks card is an exercise in futility.

when the 16s came out, i called around looking for 8s and NOBODY had them. seems that production of 8s had stopped and ebay or forums like this are your only option.

it becomes a discussion of truly usable scale. at some point we will hit a rational usability level and people wont be sooooo ravenous to get the next bigger card just to get their work done - and that will make manufacturing bigger cards less attractive.

4 was WAY too small on the grand scale, and we salivated for 8. 8 was just about useful, but we still salivated for 16. 16 can handle most situations, yet 32 would be kinda bulletproof for most folks... blah, blah, blah...

i wonder if manufacturing might settle on an ongoing baseline with 16 being the conversational minimum. followed by 32, 64 and with 128s holding an ongoing premium pricetag (once they hit market) at least until the next storage paradigm pops up...

but screw all this. i still have my 100gig firestore that does just about all i need and has never failed me. ahhh - its so nice NOT to be on the hamster wheel...

dregenthal

03-03-2008, 01:45 AM

The only reason (for me), to go larger than 16 is that I'd like the ability to shoot up to an hour of 1080 . . . a pair of 32's would be just what the doctor ordered.

wgzn

03-03-2008, 02:24 AM

understood dreg - but FWIW, ive heard more problem on various forums with importing from spanned cards than i have with firestores

tmnt

03-03-2008, 02:49 AM

I think the 8's already been discontinued long ago. The 16 and 32 are the current models.
Wow, didn't realize the 8s were actually discontinued. I'd imagine anyone shooting features would think 8s (or max 16s) would be the sweet spot.

Jeff Anderson

03-03-2008, 05:37 AM

If you've got a place to offload readily and someone to handle the cards, 3 8's rock. Too much of the time that isnt the case though for me. A few 32's would be nice for those times out in the field where firing a laptop up is a pain or no one is around to card wrangle.

heavyG

03-03-2008, 09:50 AM

I've been using a fistful of 8's and a couple of 4's; in a start stop commercial shoot environment they seem ideal - you can d'load and review while the rest of the crew is doing whatever it is that seems to take so long... (laughing) Most takes are less than a minute.
But I recently did some shooting at a whisky distillery, all run and gun no stopping long enough to d'load - for that 32's or 64's would be best. Shoot all day, then review at the hotel that night (with fingers crossed that everything is there)

G.

I've never lost a clip

drdimento

03-03-2008, 10:27 AM

Personally I think that IF Panasonic wants to keep the P2 format cooking, they will hurry and get the prices down because from what I see, the competition is running wild in the storage market and the one that gets the lead usually stays . . look at BluRay . . once it took the lead with movie companies, the race was over! Express Cards are cheap . . I mean really cheap by comparison. So retrospectfully, keep the price on the P2 high and watch the competition take the lead. No disrespect intended but it is after all a buyers market that steers the ship.

Barry_Green

03-03-2008, 10:42 AM

Express Cards are cheap . . I mean really cheap by comparison.
ExpressCards that can record video? They cost exactly the same as P2 does.

ExpressCards that can't record video? Sure, those are cheaper -- but then again, they're not competition.

drdimento

03-03-2008, 11:39 AM

ExpressCards that can record video? They cost exactly the same as P2 does. ExpressCards that can't record video? Sure, those are cheaper -- but then again, they're not competition.

Oh well, that's how much I know about the competition's formats huh? How about the HDV format though, how is it fairing the format war? I know a lot of people that have it here in Pittsburgh.

Barry_Green

03-03-2008, 11:58 AM

HDV's been quite popular. It's kind of in an odd place right now since all the HDV manufacturers (except JVC) have joined together to replace it with AVC-HD, but for right now it's quite prevalent.

DOSMedia

03-03-2008, 12:05 PM

Oh well, that's how much I know about the competition's formats huh? How about the HDV format though, how is it fairing the format war? I know a lot of people that have it here in Pittsburgh.

Its great. The thing that scare people towards HDV is the price of P2s. Thats what scared me away from the HVX at first. I could of had it a year ago. Instead i bought an hdv camera thinking the hdv tapes would be cheeper. Ehh i was wrong. In a year of shooting i spent close to a grand on tapes :(. Oops, haha, and i got my HVX with a free 8 gig too!
In the long run p2 format is cheeper, people like me just dont realize it at first.

patssle

03-03-2008, 12:56 PM

4Gb cards are nice because you can directly burn them to DVDs for backup. Or 8Gb cards to DVD Dual Layer. 32Gb to blu-ray once burners and media ge t cheaper.

Brad Neal

03-03-2008, 01:45 PM

I hope that when the 64's come out that the 32's will drop, then I am buying the 32's. I don't know how you guys can work with those 4 gig cards if you're shooting HD. I would think that one would constantly be swapping out cards.

JitCam

03-04-2008, 02:41 AM

filmguy123

03-04-2008, 11:37 AM

i love my hvx.. but 2 large cards like 2 64's or higher scare me a bit.. imagine ur shooting a wedding or other live event and some error occurs... all i can say is i would only use 64 cards in a situation other than live events where i coulnd handle an error. Thats why on live events i usually have a second cam rolling..usually an hdv cam just in case of a disaster.. hehe

Has anyone actually had an error where an entire card gets corrupted? Maybe a clip, or some weird artificatting if importing when not set to read only... but correct me if I am wrong as I very well could be, but I haven't heard of any corruption problems where an entire card goes bad. There's no moving parts, either.

How about even a single clip getting corrupt and unusable? Has that even happen?

ksteiger

03-04-2008, 01:12 PM

How about even a single clip getting corrupt and unusable? Has that even happen?

I have been shooting with 4's and 16's for 2 years. About a year ago I had some tiny dots appear in the image when I started editing in FCP 5.1...( I hadn't even had time to view the P2's before formatting the cards and continuing to shoot)

...but of course this turned out to be a funky Quick time import. I checked the P2 files in the import window in FCP and, fortunately, redid the import without a problem.

So the answer is no. Never had even one problem.

BTW, I wish I could say the same for the 5 years I spent dealing with tape droputs on mini DV tape.

I have, however, had error problems restoring P2 files from a DVD. (twice) I now make 2 copies, and only use TDK or HP media. (Both failures were with Maxell blanks....coincidence? Maybe, but I am still paranoid about my P2 backups, and can not afford the tons of drive space to allocate to them)

P2 forever.

trav_2483

03-04-2008, 06:27 PM

I was formatting cards for the local camera house in preparation for another shoot. When I tried to format one of the cards, the camera told me that it was an incompatible card. It didn't even recognze the card. The card was a 16 gb and was replaced at no cost to the rental house. In response to what filmguy123 said... it was fine because the shoot was over, but the entire card was jacked. What if I would have been unloading those on set? I haven't personally had any problems with P2 myself and will continue to shoot tapeless, but It does make one think.

JitCam

03-05-2008, 01:33 AM

Has anyone actually had an error where an entire card gets corrupted? Maybe a clip, or some weird artificatting if importing when not set to read only... but correct me if I am wrong as I very well could be, but I haven't heard of any corruption problems where an entire card goes bad. There's no moving parts, either.

i have never had any problems either with my p2 card.. i have a 16gb card. As far as errors i have read a few posts of people loosing footage.. its not common however so this is a good thing.. and at the end of the day tape can mess up also.. thats why on live events i tend to have 2 cams, the hvx and an hdv cam.. so if one of them mess up i can still salvage footage.. hehe

filmguy123

03-05-2008, 02:12 AM

yeah... that's what I thought. So I'm not too worried about a 64gb P2 card. At HD, thats about the same as 64 minutes of tape - so if something goes wrong, same as something going wrong on a tape, and probably less likely. The solution should be a backup camera, not a ton of 4gb P2 cards - lame! (Thats just my opinion! :) )

patssle

03-05-2008, 02:51 PM

Here's a thought: Did we have a backup camera shooting when we used tape 'just in case' the tape went bad?

puredrifting

03-05-2008, 08:34 PM

I have had three P2 card mishaps over the years. I shot the footage but did not download it in one of the three cases. I think it was before the HVX-200 had the repair clip function and in all three cases, the clips showed up with red Xs through them and the clips were unreadable and unusable. In one case, a specific card was shot and all of the footage just disappeared, the card had blank clips that were gray.

P2 is not perfect but it's been over a year and half since I have seen any issues. These were all in the early days of the HVX when I think that there may have been a few bugs in the system somehow. None of the gear was my personal gear either, it belonged to the prodco I was at and several people used the gear.

Dan

puredrifting

03-05-2008, 08:54 PM

Here's a thought: Did we have a backup camera shooting when we used tape 'just in case' the tape went bad?

I just did a shoot with a tape camera last weekend and it was an important one for a new client. I did bring a backup camera, just in case.

But I don't always but sometimes when it is a local shoot and I am not flying, I do bring my DVX when shooting with HVX. If the HVX broke, it would be better to have the shoot on Mini DV in most cases, than not at all.

Dan

filmguy123

03-05-2008, 11:25 PM

Here's a thought: Did we have a backup camera shooting when we used tape 'just in case' the tape went bad?

I think you missed the point. The point is, you should always have a backup camera when shooting a live event where you can't miss a segment, in the case of any mishap happening (even a blocked camera angle).

What I was saying, P2 is so stable now, the likelihood of it failing is probably the same or perhaps even LESS than tape. So you don't really need to take any more precaution than you would if you were using a tape based camera.

And, in the event something went wrong (same or less likely than tape), you SHOULD have a backup camera regardless. You should always have a backup camera, even if shooting 100% tape. That is the safety net. Not a stack of old 4gb P2 cards.

And, just like on tape, if something went wrong with the tape, you lose an hour of footage. Same with a 64gb P2 card shooting HD. So really, the risk is the same as shooting on one tape. I don't change my tape 16 times every hour in case one of them goes bad.

Just my 2 cents.

RYoshino

03-21-2008, 04:58 PM

Is there any guestimate on the price of the new 64gb card?

cici

03-21-2008, 07:08 PM

1500 USD when it comes out towards the end of the year.

tmnt

03-21-2008, 09:29 PM

1500 USD when it comes out towards the end of the year.
Is that just a guess? Anyways if that is the case that would be sweet. Would love to pick up a 32GB for below a grand.

David Saraceno

03-22-2008, 10:25 AM

Yes, that's a guess.

No pricing has been set.

The poster may be following the historical pricing changes, which basically have set the new larger capacity cards at the same price as the previous smaller capacity cards.

But I don't think that that is going to happen. 64 GB cards have 32 more GBs than 32 GB cards.

That is a huge difference -- more than 4 to 8, 8 to 16 and 16 to 32.

Kit Hannah

03-22-2008, 02:38 PM

I wouldn't be surprised if 32GB dropped to $1200 and 64's were $2000 - $2100.

filmguy123

03-22-2008, 03:47 PM

Panny said they wouldn't increase the price of their top end P2 card way back when, it would also be 1800-ish and 900-ish, but I wonder if things are going to change now, as they said they will not be discontinuing the 16gb. I could see what Kit is mentioning become a reality.

David Saraceno

03-22-2008, 03:54 PM

Never read that.

Do you have link to that Panasonic policy statement?

That would be interesting

filmguy123

03-22-2008, 05:56 PM

Never read that.

Do you have link to that Panasonic policy statement?

That would be interesting

Nope just remember that when I was researching buying an HVX back when, when P2 was new. Don't think it was a official policy, but whether this is accurate or not - Barry would know.

Barry_Green

03-22-2008, 07:26 PM

Never heard anything like that. And it doesn't necessarily jibe with the evidence; the 8GB card was $1200 the day before the 16 was announced, and the 16 was announced at $300 LESS than the 8GB.

With that said, we expect that Moore's law will hold true, and prices will fall in half and capacities double every year. The cards have gone from $900/GB down to $50/GB, and in April I expect a significant drop again. But we'll see if that happens.

cici

03-22-2008, 08:22 PM

Panny said they wouldn't increase the price of their top end P2 card way back when, it would also be 1800-ish and 900-ish, .

That's what I remember too.... and so I GUESS the street-price of 1500 USD for the 64GB-card.

I think I heard about 2 years ago about this price politics and the new cards were never too far from the price of the "old" ones, so why should it be more than 1800 USD (street price 1500 USD) ? - There are reasons why it even could be LESS than 1800 USD: alternative producers, Sony's Express Cards, alternative Express Cards that make the prices drop for Sony's Express Cards...

I don't think any of these points will make a huge price drop, but I think at least it makes the prices not growing and perhaps or probably pushes them a little down....

Besides, I wouldn't calculate per GB, as this doesn't work for HDDs, PCs, etc. that double capacity / productivity once in a while... and always cost about the same for their range for decades... (e.g. high-end PC). And for P2 the price also didn't change a lot per new card, but always did exponentially per GB...

Barry_Green

03-22-2008, 08:31 PM

Sony's Express Cards are priced exactly the same as Panasonic's P2 cards. And Sony's alternative producer, SanDisk, has priced their cards exactly the same as Sony's. So don't expect a lot of price pressure coming from there.

Besides, the P2 cards have gone from $900 per gigabyte down to $50 per gigabyte even without any competition.

cici

03-23-2008, 12:18 AM

Besides, the P2 cards have gone from $900 per gigabyte down to $50 per gigabyte even without any competition.

So did the price per GB for VHS cassettes, CDs, DVDs, RAM, SD cards - that's why I wouldn't calculate in price per GB. It's just the normal evolution: my PC is X-times faster than my Commodore C64 is.... for the same price... It would rather be uncommon if the 64GB card would cost 3000 USD and so the price per GB would stay the same...

Concerning the capacity of cards you just come to twice of the capacity for each generation. That's 32 times more for the 64GB card than it was for the 2GB card - and again it's normal that the 64GB card won't cost 32 times more than the 2GB card did..... that would be normal if they came out the same day....

David Saraceno

03-23-2008, 10:13 AM

So did the price per GB for VHS cassettes

I remember paying $800 for a 1 - Gigabyte VHS tape.

:)

What are you referring to?

cici

03-23-2008, 05:23 PM

I remember paying $800 for a 1 - Gigabyte VHS tape.

:)

What are you referring to?

And I remember paying around 18 USD in the 80ies for a 180 minutes VHS tape - and ten years ago, I could get a 240 minutes tape for 1 USD...

And my first DVD-R cost about 30 USD.... today I pay 1,5 for the same DVD-R (still Panasonic DVD-R from Taiyo Yuden factory).

The price per GB for recording-media has always come down - with or without competition.

And I still don't remember where I heard the price politics for P2-cards, that the price for the newest generation would always be about the same....... do you, filmguy? - Was it in an early P2-brochure?

filmguy123

03-23-2008, 05:51 PM

Don't remember, but I'm glad someone else remembers that too!

TedRR

03-23-2008, 09:25 PM

I used to pay $24.99 for High Quality VHS tapes back in the day. :Drogar-BigGrin(DBG)

Barry_Green

03-23-2008, 09:32 PM

Okay, but cici - what's your point? The prices are already coming down. Whether Sony or anyone else comes out with the exact-same-priced product, it doesn't matter -- the prices are what they are, and they're coming down already, so -- I don't get where the disconnect is?

cici

03-24-2008, 12:06 AM

It's just that I see P2-users beeing more concerned what ONE CARD costs, than one GB....

And it's a good idea to calculate the price per GB that we had years ago for the 2GB card and today for the 64GB card, but I think the main focus has always been the price per card and not per GB: some people were looking for cheap cards of ancient generations (e.g. 4GB continued til today) - not only because 4GB just fit on 1 DVD, but also because it's a cheap card.... if the price for four 4GB cards was the same as for one 16GB and both were on the market, many users would prefer four 4GB cards, even if the price per GB is the same...

That's my point. Any calculation is interesting for itself, but actually I think people want to speculate for the price for one 64GB card and not how many % the price per GB will come down with the 64GB card.

There are politics around the price of a card. So for me, it's interesting, to see, whether the 64GB card will cost

a) the same as the 32GB card did (that would of course NOT be a coincidence, but pure politics...)

b) more than the 32GB card did (that's possible due weak dollar price and cards from Japan... - or perhaps the 64GB card has an update of any kind that costs more.... etc. etc. - that would be the politics that we would neither like, nor expect after the free 8GB promotion and other "gifts" from Panasonic....)

c) less than the 32GB card did - that's what we hope for and it's even possible because of many, many reasons and we all know that it's just up to Panasonic to decide and it's only "virtual" calculations following politic rules.

Nevertheless it's also interesting to calculate other numbers as price per GB, but also the months that have been between two generations of cards, or the relative difference between SD card prices (per GB) and P2 cards (per GB) to see, how parallel or not this market develops, as we know, there's a part of SD technology in each P2 card...

I conclude with my (old) guess of 1500 USD as a streetprice for the 64GB card about 4 weeks after its appearance on the market. Pure speculation. Like any other pure speculation for NAB called HVX220.